China's new global risk map

Abstract

China has long adhered to a principle of ‘non-interference’ in other states’ affairs. However, as more of its companies have been investing in projects overseas, and millions of its nationals are travelling abroad, Beijing is finding itself progressively involved in other countries – through the need to protect these interests and citizens.

During the turmoil of the Arab Spring in 2011, China was compelled to evacuate more than 35,000 Chinese workers and expatriates from Libya, and later it led the hunt for the killers of 13 Chinese sailors in the Golden Triangle region of the Mekong River. In 2015, Beijing sent a combat battalion to join the UN peacekeeping mission in South Sudan, where it has huge oil ventures. Its plans to construct a New Silk Road will mean new commercial endeavours to protect in Pakistan.

The shift in Chinese foreign policy towards a more interventionist approach abroad has not been the result of grand strategy, but an adjustment to unfolding events. The large risk appetite of state-owned Chinese business is inexorably drawing the Chinese state into security hotspots, and as China becomes a great power its people are openly calling on their government to protect compatriots caught in crises overseas, including via military means. While much attention has focused on Beijing's increasingly assertive behaviour in disputed Asian seas, this book highlights another equally important area of change, with potentially far-reaching consequences for international security.

Notes

1 The ‘going-out’ strategy was first mentioned by Jiang Zemin in his report to the 16th Party Congress, ‘Build a Well-off Society in an All-Round Way and Create a New Situation in Building Socialism with Chinese Characteristics’, 8 November 2002, accessed at http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2002-11/18/content_633685.htm.

2 ‘World Investment Report: Annex Tables’, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), accessed at http://unctad.org/en/pages/DIAE/World%20Investment%20Report/Annex-Tables.aspx. The Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) puts the figures slightly higher, at US$107.8bn; see ‘Joint Report on Statistics of China's Outbound FDI 2013 Released’, MOFCOM, 12 September 2014, accessed at http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/article/newsrelease/significantnews/201409/20140900727958.shtml.

3 ‘FDI in figures’, OECD website, December 2014, accessed at http://www.oecd.org/daf/inv/FDI-in-Figures-Dec-2014.pdf.

4 ‘Brief Statistics on China Contracted Projects Overseas in 2013’, MOFCOM, 17 January 2014.

5 Shuping Liao and Yongsheng Zhang, ‘A new context for managing overseas direct investment by Chinese state-owned enterprises’, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, no. 83.

6 Ibid.

7 ‘Emerging-market multinationals: The rise of state capitalism’, The Economist, 21 January 2012.

8 Julie Jiang and Chen Ding, ‘Update on Overseas Investments by China's National Oil Companies: Achievements and Challenges since 2011’, International Energy Agency Partner Country Series, 2014.

9 Chinese scholar Zhu Feng quoted in Richard McGregor, ‘Chinese diplomacy “hijacked” by big companies’, Financial Times, 16 March 2008. See also David Shambaugh, China goes global: The partial power (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013), p. 169.

10 ‘China iron ore imports are set to rise’, Wall Street Journal, 25 February 2014.

11 See, ‘The 2013 Top 60 Chinese Contractors’, Engineering News Record, accessed at http://enr.construction.com/engineering/pdf/top_lists/Top-Chinese-Contractors/2013-Top-60-Chinese-Contractors.pdf.

12 See ‘Overseas Operations’, CSCEC, accessed at http://english.cscec.com/art/2014/1/22/art_3536_125553.html.

13 ‘Zhongtie ji haiwai shouru zhan 1/3’ (CREC aims at one-third of profits coming from overseas activities), Takungbao, 9 April 2014, accessed at http://news.takungpao.com/paper/q/2014/0409/2408192.html.

14 Henry Sanderson and Michael Forsythe, China's Superbank: Debt, Oil and Influence – How China Development Bank is Rewriting the Rules of Finance (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley and Sons, 2013).

15 Barry Sergeant, ‘China's $9bn “Deal of the century” with the DRC – A critical review’, Mineweb, 10 March 2011. The value of the deal has since been revised and elements of it deferred; see Greg Ryan, ‘Natural resource extraction in the DRC: China – saviour or plunderer?’, Consultancy Africa Intelligence, 27 October 2013.

16 Senior academic, Author interview, Beijing, September 2014.

17 ‘Ling shiren zhumu de Zhongguo duiwai touzi yu jingji hezuo’ (China's international economic cooperation and FDIs stuns the world), CHINCA, 22 September 2009, accessed at http://www.chinca.org:8080/cms/html/main/col145/2012-05/30/20120530021806171442066_1.html.

18 ‘Neidi jumin quannian chujing jin yi renci’ (Number of nationals travelling abroad is approaching 100 million), Fazhi Ribao, 25 May 2014, accessed at http://www.chinanews.com/fz/2014/05-23/6203098.shtml.

19 ‘Waijiaobu guanyuan, 1 ming lingshiguan fuwu chao 19 wan haiwai zhongguo gongmin’ (Diplomat: One consular officer for 190,000 Chinese nationals overseas), Nanfang Dushibao, 19 May 2014, accessed at http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2014-05-19/062030165037.shtml.

20 ‘Shangwubu guanyu jiaqiang duiwai touzi hezuo zaiwai renyuan fenlei guanli gongzuo de tongzhi’ (MOFCOM's decision to improve the work related to the categorisation of personnel involved in investment cooperation overseas), MOFCOM, 4 November 2013, accessed at http://fec.mofcom.gov.cn/article/zcfg/zcfb/dwtz/201311/1782427_1.html.

21 ‘2013 nian woguo duiwai laowu hezuo yewu jianming tongji’ (2013, China's labour-service cooperation with foreign businesses and concise statistics), MOFCOM, accessed at http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/tongjiziliao/dgzz/201401/20140100463572.shtml.

22 ‘Li Keqiang zai Angela zhaokai haiwai minsheng zuotanhui’ (In Angola, Li Keqiang shares a roundtable discussion on the well-being of nationals overseas), Xinhua, 9 May 2014, accessed at http://www.xinhuaafrica.com/index.php?m=content&c=index&a=show&catid=15&id=5320.

23 Howard W. French, China's Second Continent: How a Million Migrants are Building a New Empire in Africa, (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2014).

24 Ibid.; Jacob Kushner, ‘As Africa welcomes more Chinese migrants, a new wariness sets in’, Christian Science Monitor, 4 September 2013; and Michelle Zhang, ‘China's Views and Responses to Risk in Africa’, Africa Monitor (Frontier Service Group), 3 October 2014.

25 ‘Field services company list’, MOFCOM, accessed at http://wszw.hzs.mofcom.gov.cn/fecp/zsmb/corp/corp_ml_list1.jsp?ly=wplw.

26 Company profile, International Business Beijing Construction Engineering Group (BCEG), accessed at http://www.bceg.com.cn/about/ehsz_58.html.

27 French, China's Second Continent, p. 72.

28 Ibid., p. 67.

29 Senior academic, Author interview, Astana, October 2012.

30 See, e.g., Lucy Ash, ‘China in Africa: Developing ties’, BBC News, 4 December 2007; and Xan Rice, ‘China's economic invasion of Africa’, Guardian, 6 February 2011.

31 Director of SOE in construction sector, Author interview, Beijing, September 2014.

32 Ibid.

33 ‘Zhongxin Guohua, Jiji lvxing qiye shehui zeren, shuli Zhongguo qiye lianghao xingxiang’ (CITIC Guohua: Positively implement corporate social responsibility, establish a good image for Chinese firms), China International Contractors Association, accessed at http://www.chinca.org:8080/cms/html/shzr/col250/2012-05/30/20120530050755328989819_1.html. However, the East–West Highway project in Algeria, a contract of approximately US$6.25bn won in May 2006 by a joint venture between CITIC and China Railway Construction Corporation, provides job opportunities for 13,000 Chinese, and 10,000 locals, according to CITIC. See ‘Algeria East–West Expressway’, 29 August 2008, accessed at http://big5.citic.com/trc/www.icc.citic.com/iwcm/null/null/ns:LHQ6LGY6LGM6MmM5NDgyOTUxYzBkMzY1YTAxMWMwZGY1MTQwYzAwMDQscDosYTosbTo=/show.vsml.

34 ‘Liangqian zhongguoren kenniya xiu tielu, meimei fansi benguo hushi feizhou’ (Two thousand Chinese repair railroad in Kenya, American media reflects how the US ignores Africa), Huanqiu Shibao, 8 August 2014, accessed at http://world.huanqiu.com/exclusive/2014-08/5099326.html.

35 China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited, accessed at http://english.cri.cn/7146/2010/10/14/2041s599398.htm.

36 Retired Chinese ambassador, Author interview, Beijing, September 2014.

37 ‘China to establish $40 billion Silk Road infrastructure fund’, Reuters, 8 November 2014. For details on the New Silk Road, see ‘China's Initiatives on Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road’, Xinhua, accessed at http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/special/silkroad/.