Abstract
The 2011 Arab uprisings began in North Africa and toppled the leaders of Tunisia and Libya, but the forces that wreaked this profound change also touched their fellow Maghreb states of Algeria and Morocco. This Adelphi book examines how the politics, security and economies – which were largely stable for decades prior to 2011 – have changed in the four states. It asks why the popular revolutions in Tunisia and Libya did not spread to Algeria and Morocco; how the revolutionary states have fared since 2011; why Libya descended into a deadly civil war while the others did not; and whether the sitting governments in Algeria and Morocco have applied sustainable strategies to address the new political climate.
The book includes chapters on each of the four core Maghreb states, together with regional assessments of the jihadist threat and economic challenges. It analyses the tension between security and political reform, and argues that without persistent and comprehensive development of government institutions focused on creating jobs and providing security, the region risks future protests, terrorism or even revolution – a lesson that states throughout the Middle East should take to heart.
Notes
1 Founded in 1946, UGTT has a membership of more than half a million and has played a prominent role in Tunisian politics since independence.
2 Habib Boularès, Histoire de La Tunisie: de la Préhistoire à la Révolution (Tunis: Cérès Éditions, 2011).
3 Michael Willis, Politics and Power in the Maghreb: Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco from Independence to the Arab Spring (New York: Hurst & Co., 2012).
4 Peter J. Schraeder and Hamadi Redissi, ‘Ben Ali's Fall,’ Journal of Democracy, vol. 22, no. 3, July 2011, pp. 5–19.
5 Nicole Rowsell and Asma Ben Yahia, ‘Revolution to Reform: Citizen Expectations on the One-Year Anniversary of the Tunisian Uprising’, National Democratic Institute, January 2012, https://www.ndi.org/files/NDI%20Tunisia-FG-Report-Jan2012-ENG.pdf.
6 NDI public-opinion research noted that voters in 2011 who had chosen Ennahda cited the following reasons: a definitive break with the previous regime; a track record of struggle; and potential to address corruption going forward.
7 Meaning ‘compass’ in English, Al Bawsala was created just after the assembly elections in 2011, with the goal of creating accountability of elected officials and increasing access to information on the part of Tunisian citizens.
8 See Chapter Six.
9 ‘Following 2014 Elections, NDI Focus Group Research Shows Tunisians Optimistic About Democratic Transition’, National Democratic Institute, 17 March 2015, https://www.ndi.org/files/En%20NDI%20Research%20Findings%20-%20Tunisia%20January%202015.pdf.