Taiwan and its predicament

Abstract

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine confirmed that revived great-power competition has heightened the prospect of global conflict, while restoring the concept of deterrence to centre stage. The stakes in a conflict in East Asia, however, would be even higher than those in Ukraine. A war over Taiwan could bring the United States and China, the world’s two greatest powers, into a direct military conflict which would represent a contest for regional or global leadership and would be likely to draw other powers into the fight. Such a war – in which the nuclear question would be ever-present – can currently be described as ‘possible, avoidable, but potentially catastrophic’.

In this Adelphi book, Bill Emmott evaluates the diplomatic and deterrence strategies that countries in and outside the Indo-Pacific region are using to try to reduce the risk of that conflict occurring. This book examines these strategies in the light of the lessons of the Ukraine war and identifies yardsticks with which to gauge their potential effectiveness and sustainability. Our goal, Emmott argues, must be for all sides to regard such a US–China conflict as ‘inevitably catastrophic and therefore inconceivable’.

Notes

1 See Ian Rowen, ‘Inside Taiwan’s Sunflower Movement: Twenty-four Days in a Student-occupied Parliament, and the Future of the Region’, Journal of Asian Studies, vol. 74, no. 1, February 2015, https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-asian-studies/article/inside-taiwans-sunflower-movement-twentyfour-days-in-a-studentoccupied-parliament-and-the-future-of-the-region/DB4A7B57538A6F06DC6C8CF0058C8040.

2 Ibid.

3 Cheng Ting-Fang and Lauly Li, ‘Taiwan Opposition Candidate Vows to Boost Defenses to Deter China’, Nikkei Asia, 11 January 2024, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Taiwan-elections/Taiwan-opposition-candidate-vows-to-boost-defenses-to-deter-China.

4 Election Study Center, National Chengchi University, ‘Taiwan Independence vs. Unification with the Mainland (1994/12–2023/06)’, 22 February 2024, https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963.

5 It is worth noting that the term used in Taiwan is generally ‘unification’ rather than ‘reunification’, signifying a lack of acceptance that Taiwan is part of China.

6 Republic of China (Taiwan), ‘National Statistics: Total Population’, https://eng.stat.gov.tw/Point.aspx?sid=t.9&n=4208&sms=11713.

7 Election Study Center, National Chengchi University, ‘Taiwanese /Chinese Identity (1992/06–2023/12)’, 22 February 2024, https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7800&id=6961.

8 IISS Military Balance+, https://milbalplus.iiss.org/. Many analysts believe China’s official defence budget considerably understates its true spending: see, for example, Meia Nouwens and Lucie Béraud-Sudreau, ‘Assessing Chinese Defence Spending: Proposals for New Methodologies’, IISS Research Paper, 31 March 2020, https://www.iiss.org/research-paper/2020/03/assessing-chinese-defence-spending/.

9 Timothy R. Heath, Sale Lilly and Eugeniu Han, ‘Can Taiwan Resist a Large-scale Military Attack by China?’, RAND Corporation, 27 June 2023, https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1658-1.html.

10 See William S. Murray and Ian Easton, ‘The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan’s Defense and American Strategy in Asia’, Naval War College Review, vol. 72, no. 1, Winter 2019, https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=7877&context=nwc-review; and Ministry of National Defense, Republic of China, ‘2021 Quadrennial Defense Review’, https://www.ustaiwandefense.com/tdnswp/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/2021-Taiwan-Quadrennial-Defense-Review-QDR.pdf.

11 Republic of China (Taiwan), ‘National Statistics: Total Population’.

12 See Thompson Chau, ‘Taiwan Submarine Dream Surfaces as China Tensions Rise’, Nikkei Asia, 19 September 2023, https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Asia-Insight/Taiwan-submarine-dream-surfaces-as-China-tensions-rise#; and Thompson Chau, ‘Taiwan Unveils “Narwhal”, Its First Home-built Submarine’, Nikkei Asia, 28 September 2023, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Taiwan-tensions/Taiwan-unveils-Narwhal-its-first-home-built-submarine.

13 Gordon Arthur, ‘Taiwan Begins Building Anti-submarine Frigate’, Defense News, 23 January 2023, https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2024/01/23/taiwan-begins-building-anti-submarine-frigate/.

14 John Dotson, ‘Taiwan’s “Military Force Restructuring Plan” and the Extension of Conscripted Military Service’, Global Taiwan Institute, 8 February 2023, https://globaltaiwan.org/2023/02/taiwan-military-force-restructuring-plan-and-the-extension-of-conscripted-military-service/.

15 IISS Military Balance+, https://milbalplus.iiss.org/.

16 Chen Yu-fu, ‘Robert Tsao Pledges Money to Make 1m Combat Drones’, Taipei Times, 24 September 2022, https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2022/09/24/2003785860.

17 Hsu Tzu-ling and Jake Chung, ‘DPP Lawmaker Urges Cyberdefense Priority’, Taipei Times, 9 February 2024, https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2024/02/09/2003813312.

18 See, for example, Helen Fitzwilliam, ‘To Deter China, Taiwan Can Learn from Ukraine and Israel–Hamas War’, Chatham House, 1 December 2023, https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/the-world-today/2023-12/deter-china-taiwan-can-learn-ukraine-and-israel-hamas-war.

19 Doublethink Lab, https://doublethinklab.org. See also Doublethink’s ‘2022 Taiwan Election: Foreign Influence Observation Report’, 21 June 2023, https://medium.com/doublethinklab/2022-taiwan-election-foreign-influence-observation-report-89951af668f1.

20 Government of the Republic of China (Taiwan), Ministry of Economic Affairs, Energy Administration, ‘What Is the Existing Energy Mix and Current Energy Policy in Taiwan?’, 28 December 2023, https://www.moeaea.gov.tw/ECW/english/content/Content.aspx?menu_id=1679.

21 Joseph Webster, ‘Does Taiwan’s Massive Reliance on Energy Imports Put Its Security at Risk?’, Atlantic Council, 7 July 2023, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/does-taiwans-massive-reliance-on-energy-imports-put-its-security-at-risk/#:~:text=The%20island%20is%20highly%20dependent,comes%20from%20the%20Middle%20East.

22 Gavin Maguire, ‘Taiwan Aims to Shed Dirty Power Reputation with Big Wind Push’, Reuters, 28 September 2023, https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/taiwan-aims-shed-dirty-power-reputation-with-big-wind-push-maguire-2023-09-28/.

23 Government of the Republic of China (Taiwan), Ministry of Economic Affairs, Energy Administration, ‘Management of Oil Security Stockpile’, 21 February 2023, https://www.moeaea.gov.tw/ECW/english/content/Content.aspx?menu_id=8675.

24 IMF, ‘Taiwan Province of China: Datasets’, https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/TWN; and IMF, ‘People’s Republic of China: Datasets’, https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/CHN.

25 Jeff Ferry, ‘Currency Misalignment Monitor, June 2023’, Coalition for a Prosperous America, 1 June 2023, https://prosperousamerica.org/currency-misalignment-monitor/#:~:text=Taiwan%27s%20currency%2C%20the%20Taiwanese%20dollar,the%20most%20recent%20currency%20moves. This calculation is based on a model showing what exchange-rate movements would be required to achieve zero current-account balances, which is arguably unrealistically stringent but nonetheless gives a broad assessment of the level of undervaluation.

26 Masahiro Okoshi, ‘US Starts Pushing Taiwan to Address Undervalued Currency’, Nikkei Asia, 17 April 2021, https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Currencies/US-starts-pushing-Taiwan-to-address-undervalued-currency.

27 The most recent switch of diplomatic recognition to the PRC was by the tiny island state of Nauru on 15 January 2024, just after Taiwan’s elections. See Taijing Wu and Ken Moritsugu, ‘Nauru Switches Diplomatic Recognition from Taiwan to China’, Associated Press, 16 January 2024, https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-nauru-china-diplomacy-f8c6b74c03b61b51415c00b9e2bc32e1.

28 Government of the Republic of China (Taiwan), Ministry of Foreign Affairs, ‘New Southbound Policy Portal’, https://nspp.mofa.gov.tw/nsppe/.

29 Republic of China (Taiwan), Ministry of Finance, ‘Annual External Trade Report in 2023’, https://service.mof.gov.tw/public/Data/statistic/bulletin/112/2023%E8%8B%B1%E6%96%87%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90.pdf.

30 Lin Tzu-yao and Cathy Fang, ‘Lai Causes White House Debate’, Taipei Times, 18 August 2023, https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2023/08/18/2003804901.

31 Bonnie S. Glaser, Jessica Chen Weiss and Thomas J. Christensen, ‘Taiwan and the True Sources of Deterrence’, Foreign Affairs, January/February 2024, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/taiwan/taiwan-china-true-sources-deterrence.