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Themes

Implications of Iran's Uranium Enrichment Programme for Regional Security

Pages 317-330 | Published online: 10 Oct 2012
 

Abstract

The UN Security Council has passed a series of resolutions directing Iran to cease uranium enrichment. The resolutions are designed to bring pressure to bear on Iran in order to persuade the country's authorities to demonstrate full compliance with the fundamental convention on nuclear science and nuclear armaments, the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT). The success or failure of UN efforts to dissuade Iran from pursuing nuclear technologies outside the framework of international oversight holds significant implications for international security. The success or failure of these efforts holds profound implications for security within the Middle Eastern and Eurasian regions. There are differences of opinion on how to most effectively and equitably bring Iran into compliance with international conventions. International attention is increasingly focused on three policy postures with respect to Iran's enrichment programme: postpone, prevent or prepare for the ramifications of a nuclear Iran. This paper weighs the implications of these policy alternatives, describing the effects of Iran's uranium enrichment programme on security throughout the Central Asian region.

Notes

[1] M. Nicolas Sarkozy, ‘Fifteenth Ambassadors Conference’, Paris, 27 August 2007, < http://www.ambafrance-uk.org/President-Sarkozy-s-speech.html> (accessed 24 July 2011).

[2] Kim Zetter, ‘How digital detectives deciphered Stuxnet, the most menacing malware in history’, Wired, 11 July 2011, < http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2011/07/how-digital-detectives-deciphered-stuxnet/all/1> (accessed 21 July 2011).

[3] Shahram Chubin, Iran's Nuclear Ambitions, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, DC, 2006.

[4] Alan J. Kuperman, ‘There's only one way to stop Iran’, The New York Times, 23 December 2009. Also see Joe Klein, ‘An attack on Iran: back on the table’, Time, 15 July 2011, < http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2004120,00.html> (accessed 9 July 2011).

[5] Michael J. Carden, ‘Mullen: diplomacy best approach to end Iran's nuclear proliferation’, American Forces Press Service, 18 April 2010, < http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id = 58792> (accessed 21 July 2011).

[6] Marc Lynch, Upheaval: U.S. Policy toward Iran in a Changing Middle East, Center for a New American Security, Washington, DC, 19 May 2011, < http://www.cnas.org/node/6379> (accessed 9 July 2011).

[7] See OPEC, OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 2010/2011, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Vienna, Austria, 2011, < http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/ASB2010_2011.pdf> (accessed 22 July 2011).

[8] See ‘EIA—2010 International Energy Outlook’, Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, < http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html> (accessed 24 July 2011).

[9] Carlos Pascual and Evie Zambetakis, ‘The geopolitics of energy: from security to survival’, in Carlos Pascual and Jonathan Elkind (eds), Energy Security: Economics, Politics, Strategies, and Implications, Brookings Institution Press, Washington, DC, 2009, pp. 9–36 at p. 10.

[10] IAEA, ‘Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Report by the Director General’, GOV/2011/29, International Atomic Energy Agency, 24 May 2011, < http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2011/gov2011-29.pdf> (accessed 25 July 2011). Also see William J. Broad, ‘Inspectors pierce Iran's cloak of nuclear secrecy’, The New York Times, 30 May 2011, < http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/31/science/31nuke.html> (accessed 25 July 2011).

[11] The UN Security Council resolutions cited here are freely available. See < http://www.un.org/Docs/sc/unsc_resolutions08.htm> (accessed 20 July 2011).

[12] Nazila Fathi and William J. Broad, ‘Iran says it's installing new centrifuges’, The New York Times, 9 April 2008.

[13] ‘Iran says installing new nuclear enrichment machines’, Reuters, 19 July 2011, < http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/19/us-nuclear-iran-enrichment-idUSTRE76I18U20110719> (accessed 21 July 2011).

[14] See David Albright and Mark Hibbs, ‘Iraq's nuclear hide-and-seek’, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 47(7), September 1991, < http://www.thebulletin.org/issues/1991/s91/s91albright.html> (accessed 20 July 2011).

[15] Since that time, credible accounts have since emerged about how the Iraqi nuclear weapons development programme was conducted specifically so as to elude IAEA safeguards. See Mahdi Obeidi and Kurt Pitzer, The Bomb in My Garden: The Secrets of Saddam's Nuclear Mastermind, John Wiley, Hoboken, NJ, 2004.

[16] For the current status of safeguard agreements, see the IAEA Status List, < http://www.iaea.org/OurWork/SV/Safeguards/sir_table.pdf> (accessed 20 July 2011).

[17] George P. Shultz, William J. Perry, Henry A. Kissinger and Sam Nunn, ‘A world free of nuclear weapons’, The Wall Street Journal, 4 January 2007, p. A15.

[18] Henry D. Sokolski, Falling Behind: International Scrutiny of the Peaceful Atom. A Report of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center on the International Atomic Energy Agency's Nuclear Safeguards System, Final Updated Report, September 2007, < http://www.npec-web.org> (accessed 8 October 2010).

[19] ‘Statement by H.E. Mr. Nursultan A. Nazarbayev President of the Republic of Kazakhstan during the general debate at the Sixty-second Session of the United Nations General Assembly’, New York, 25 September 2007, p. 2, < http://www.un.org/webcast/ga/62/2007/pdfs/kazakhstan-en.pdf> (accessed 20 July 2011).

[20] An English-language version of the CANWFZ treaty may be found at the website of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, < http://cns.miis.edu/inventory/pdfs/aptcanwz.pdf> (accessed 20 July 2011).

[21] Statement issued by the Spokesperson for UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, < http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2009/sgsm12143.doc.htm> (accessed 20 July 2011).

[22] Nursultan Nazarbayev, ‘My advice to Iran’, Le Monde, 13 July 2006. Reprinted in the Kazakhstan News Bulletin, 6(28), July 2006, < http://www.kazakhembus.com/newsbulletin.html> (accessed 20 July 2011).

[23] See Scott Parrish, ‘Prospects for the establishment of a Central Asian nuclear-free-zone’, The Nonproliferation Review, Spring 2001, p. 148, fn. 12.

[24] Luciano Zaccara, ‘The nuclear question and the regional leadership in Middle East and Central Asia’. To appear in Conceptions and Approaches to the Regional Security: Experience, Problems and Prospects of Interaction in Central Asia: Proceedings of the Fifth Annual Conference on Security, Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies, Almaty, 7 June 2006, see < http://www.kisi.kz/site.html?id = 956> (accessed 10 August 2008).

[25] See Sergei Lavrov, ‘My prizvali k chestnomy razgovoru’ [We called for candid discussion], Vremya, 26 December 2007, < http://www.vremya.ru/2007/238/5/194983.html> (accessed 12 May 2009).

[26] Karl Vick, ‘Iran rejects Russia's proposal on uranium’, The Washington Post, 13 March 2006, < http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/03/12/AR2006031200275.html> (accessed 21 July 2011).

[27] After many long delays, the Iranian power plant at Bushehr was reported to have begun power operation in May 2011. ‘Bushehr N. power plant starts operation’, Fars News Agency, 9 May 2011, < http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn = 9002191136> (accessed 25 July 2011).

[28] Adam C. Seitz and Anthony H. Cordesman, Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction: The Birth of a Regional Nuclear Arms Race?, Praeger, Santa Barbara, 2009.

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