New Directions in Turkey–USA Relations

Abstract

The relations between Turkey and the USA witnessed considerable volatility and uncertainty during the first decade of the 21st century. The war in Iraq played a major role in the worsening of the relations between the two allies. There were also problems between Ankara and Washington over Turkey's policy toward Iran's nuclear development programme. The efforts of the AKP government to forge close ties with the radical and anti-American political actors in the Middle East as well as the deterioration of the Israeli–Turkish relations also contributed to the strains in the bilateral relationship. However, Turkey's decision to host NATO's radar missile shield system in 2011 rapidly improved Turkey–USA relations. The main argument of this paper is that regional security problems, the decline of American power and the trend toward a multipolar world, and the transformation of Turkish domestic politics were primarily responsible for the emergence of new directions in the bilateral ties between the two countries.

Notes

 [1] For analyses of Turkey–USA relations since 2003, see Mustafa Aydın, ‘Reconstructing Turkish–American relations: divergencies versus convergencies’, New Perspectives on Turkey, spring 2009, pp. 125–146; Philip H. Gordon and Ömer Taşpınar, Winning Turkey: How America, Europe, and Turkey Can Revive a Fading Relationship, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, 2008; The Council on Foreign Relations, U.S.–Turkey Relations: A New Partnership, The Council on Foreign Relations, New York, 2012; Can Buharalı, ‘Turkey and US: from shallow to deep waters’, PrivateView, TÜSİAD, Istanbul, winter 2009, pp. 52–59; and Filiz Türkmen, Kırılgan İttifaktan ‘Model Ortaklığa’: Türkiye-ABD İlişkileri, TİMAŞ, Istanbul, 2012.

 [2] See, e.g. Stephen F. Szabo, Parting Ways: The Crisis in German–American Relations, Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, 2004.

 [3] See Sabri Sayarı, ‘Turkish–American relations in the post-cold war era: issues of convergence and divergence’, in Mustafa Aydın and Çağrı Erhan (eds), Turkish–American Relations: Past, Present, and Future, Routledge, London, 2004, pp. 91–106.

 [4] US State Department Office of Research Opinion Analysis, ‘Image of U.S. improves modestly in Turkey’, Washington, DC, 7 October 2002.

 [5] See, e.g. Rajan Menon and S. Enders Wimbush, ‘The US and Turkey: the end of an alliance?’, Survival, summer 2007, pp. 129–144.

 [6] Sabrina Tavernise and Michael Slackman, ‘Turkey goes from pliable ally to thorn for U.S.’, New York Times, 8 June 2010.

 [7] Karl Vick, ‘In many Turks’ eyes, U.S. remains the enemy’, The Washington Post, 10 April 2005. For the roots and evolution of anti-Americanism in Turkey, see Filiz Türkmen, ‘Anti-Americanism as a default ideology of opposition: Turkey as a case study’, Turkish Studies, September 2010, pp. 329–345.

 [8] Robin Wright, ‘Turkey calls for U.S. help on rebels’, The Washington Post, 8 June 2005.

 [9] See ‘Erdoğan: Güya ABD ile Stratejik Müttefikiz’, Milliyet, 13 January 2007.

[10] Susan Sachs, ‘U.S. tells Turks it won't fight Kurds’, New York Times, 1 December 2005.

[11] Carol Migdalovitz, ‘AKP's domestically driven foreign policy’, Turkish Policy Quarterly, winter 2010–11, p. 41.

[12] Fulya Özerkan, ‘Turkey spins on a new set of axis with “no” vote on Iran sanctions’, Hürriyet Daily News, 10 June 2010.

[13] Daniel Dombey, ‘US issues arms deal ultimatum to Turkey’, Financial Times, 10 August 2010.

[14] Tom Shanker, ‘U.S. hails deal with Turkey on missile shield’, New York Times, 15 September 2011.

[15] Tom Shanker, ‘U.S. hails deal with Turkey on missile shield’, New York Times, 15 September 2011

[16] An important indicator of this competition was the civil war in Syria when Iran provided strong support to the government while Turkey backed the opposition forces.

[17] Craig Whitlock, ‘U.S. steps up support of Turkey amid Syrian conflict’, The Washington Post, 20 October 2012.

[18] Philip Stephens, ‘Turkey stumbles on the road to Damascus’, Financial Times, 26 October 2012.

[19] See Sabri Sayarı, ‘Turkey and the Middle East in the 1990s’, Journal of Palestine Studies, spring 1997, pp. 44–55.

[20] See İlker Aytürk, ‘The coming of the Ice Age? Turkish–Israeli relations since 2002’, Turkish Studies, December 2011, pp. 675–688.

[21] Strobe Talbott (ed.), Khruschev Remembers: The Last Testament, Little Brown, Boston, 1974, pp. 295–296.

[22] See George S. Harris, The Troubled Alliance: Turkish–American Problems in Historical Perspective, American Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC, 1972.

[23] See Dankwart A. Rustow, Turkey: America's Forgotten Ally, Council on Foreign Relations, New York, 1987, pp. 93–103.

[24] Sabri Sayarı, ‘Turkey: the changing European security environment and the Gulf crisis’, The Middle East Journal, winter 1972, pp. 9–21.

[25] Charles Krauthammer, ‘The unipolar moment’, Foreign Affairs, winter 1990–91.

[26] Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power, Basic Books, New York, 1990, p. 14.

[27] Stephen M. Walt, ‘The end of the American era’, The National Interest, November–December 2011, pp. 6–16.

[28] Stephen S. Cohen and J. Bradford DeLong, The End of Influence: What Happens When Other Countries Have the Money, Basic Books, New York, 2010, p. 14.

[29] Walt, op. cit.

[30] See Emre Peker, ‘Turkey asserts new confidence in dealing with U.S.’, The Wall Street Journal, 3 December 2012.

[31] See Mete Çubukçu, ‘Davutoğlu Ezberi Bozuyor Mu?’, Radikal İki, 1 February 2011 and ‘US needs to adapt to new Turkish posture, says Davutoğlu’, Hürriyet Daily News, 26 December 2010.

[32] Ian Lesser, ‘Nonalignment revisited’, in Turkish Foreign Policy Under the AKP: The Rift with Washington, Policy Notes 3, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Washington, January 2011, p. 8.

[33] Migdalovitz, op. cit.

[34] For analyses of the AKP's foreign policies, see William Hale and Ergun Özbudun, Islamism, Democracy, and Liberalism in Turkey: The Case of the AKP, Routledge, London, 2011, pp. 119–147; İlhan Uzgel, ‘Dış Politikada AKP: Stratejik Konumdan Stratejik Modele’, in İlhan Uzgel and Bülent Duru (eds), AKP Kitabı: Bir Dönüşümün Bilançosu, Phoenix, Ankara, 2009, pp. 357–379; Ahmet Davutoğlu, ‘Turkey's strategic vision: an assessment of 2007’, Insight Turkey, 18(1), 2008, pp. 77–96; and Meliha B. Altunışık and Lenore G. Martin, ‘Making sense of Turkish foreign policy in the Middle East’, Turkish Studies, December 2011, pp. 569–588.

[35] See Deniz Bölükbaşı, 1 Mart Vakası: Irak Tezkeresi ve Sonrası, Doğan Kitap, Istanbul, 2008 and Murat Yetkin, Tezkere: Irak Krizinin Gerçek Öyküsü, Remzi Kitabevi, Istanbul. See also Barış Kesgin and Juliet Kaarbo, ‘When and how parliaments influence foreign policy: the case of Turkey’, International Studies Perspectives, February 2010, pp. 19–36. Prime Minister Erdoğan has since admitted that the parliament's decision was wrong and that it undermined Turkey's fight against the PKK. See, e.g. ‘Erdoğan: Keşke Irak'a Gitseydik’, Hürriyet, 7 September 2006.

[36] In a similar vote that was taken during the Gulf War in 1990–91, President Özal insisted on an open vote to enforce party discipline in the ranks of the governing Motherland Party. His tactics worked and the government received war powers from the parliament.

[37] See the interview with the retired Ambassador Faruk Loğoğlu who was the Turkish envoy to the USA at the time. ‘Siyasi İrade Eksikliği Pazarlıkları Fazla Uzattı’, Milliyet, 11–12 September 2006.

[38] Carol Migdalovitz, Turkey: Politics of Identity and Power, Congressional Research Service Reports, Washington, DC, 20 September 2010, p. 27. However, the AKP's leadership realized in 2011 that unless Turkey cooperated with the USA and NATO regarding the radar shield project that aimed at stopping a possible nuclear attack by Iran, Turkey's national security might be compromised. Moreover, by not fulfilling its commitment to NATO on this issue, Turkey might also seriously endanger its bilateral and multilateral relations with the West.

[39] See Sedat Ergin, ‘Erdoğan Obama'ya Kafa Tutuyor’, Hürriyet, 21 November 2012 and Sami Kohen, ‘ABD ile İlişkilerde Gazze Pürüzü’, Milliyet, 21 November 2012.

[40] Malik Mufti, ‘A little America: the emergence of Turkish hegemony’, Middle East Brief, Brandeis University Crown Center for Middle East Studies, May 2011, p. 5.

[41] Global Relations Forum Task Force Report 2011, Turkey–USA Partnership at the Dawn of a New Century, Global Relations Forum, Istanbul, 2011, p. 32.