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Research Article

No Strings Attached: Understanding Turkey’s Arms Exports to Africa

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Pages 378-395 | Published online: 21 Jul 2023
 

ABSTRACT

Turkey’s defence industries have shown significant development in recent years. But the limited domestic market and the financial crisis created sustainability problems for the industry. To increase its arms sales, Turkey began to search for potential markets to expand, and Africa emerged as an excellent market to enter. Turkey had already invested in Africa through its multi-track diplomacy, a necessary condition for arms sales. While the multi-track diplomacy and increased engagement helped Turkey’s arms exports, they are insufficient to explain the recent rise of Turkish arms exports, which have been showing an upward trend since 2021. This paper argues that the increase in arms exports is the function of multi-track diplomacy, no-strings-attached arms export policy and the demonstration effect.

Acknowledgments

I would like to thank Rıdvan Doğan for his support of the research and Bahar Başer Öztürk, Elem Eyrice Tepeciklioğlu and Francois Vrey for the valuable feedback on the previous versions of this paper.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

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[12] Department of State, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, The U.S. Department of State, WMEAT 2021, 12/2021.

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[14] Stohl and Grillot, International Arms Trade, op. cit., p. 18.

[15] Ibid., p. 19.

[16] B.S. Sachar, ‘Military diplomacy through arms transfers: A case study of China’, Strategic Analysis 28 (2) 1/4/2004, p. 291.

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[28] Ibid., pp. 7–8.

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[31] Charillon, Thierry Balzacq, and Frédéric Ramel, op. cit., p. 271.

[32] Ibid., p. 272.

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[35] Sachar, ‘Military diplomacy through arms transfers: A case study of China’, op. cit., p. 291.

[36] Ibid.

[37] SSB, op. cit., p. 36.

[38] SIPRI, Military Expenditure Database, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute 2020, https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex (accessed 1/12/2020).

[39] SASAD, Performans Raporu 2020 [Performance Report 2020], Savunma ve Havacılık Sanayii İmalatçılar Derneği, 2021, p. 11.

[40] SASAD, Performans Raporu 2021 [Performance Report 2021], Savunma ve Havacılık Sanayii İmalatçılar Derneği, 2022, p. 11.

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[46] SASAD, Performans Raporu 2019 [Performance Report 2019], Savunma ve Havacılık İmalatçılar Derneği, 2020.

[47] SASAD, Performans Raporu 2021 [Performance Report 2021], op. cit., p. 17.

[48] SSM, 2009–2016 Savunma Sanayii Sektörel Strateji Dokümanı [2009–2016 Defence Industry Sector Strategy Document], SSM, 4/2009.

[49] Ibid., p. 16.

[50] SSB, 2018–2022 Savunma Sanayii Sektörel Strateji Dokümanı [2018–2022 Defense Industry Sector Strategy Document], Savunma Sanayii Başkanlığı, 2018, p. 22.

[51] F. Donelli, ‘Turkey’s involvement in Sub-Saharan Africa: an empirical analysis of multitrack approach’, Journal of Contemporary African Studies 40 (1) 2022, p. 18; Y. Turhan, ‘Turkey’s Foreign Policy to Africa: The Role of Leaders’ Identity in Shaping Policy’, Journal of Asian and African Studies 56 (6) 2021, p. 1330.

[52] A. Sıradağ, ‘Turkey’s Engagement with the African Organisations: Partner or Competitor?’, India Quarterly 76 (4) 2020, p. 524; Turhan, op. cit., p. 1330.

[53] A. Sıradağ, ‘Turkey-Africa alliance: Evolving patterns in security relations’, African Security Review 27 (3–4) 2/10/2018, p. 314.

[54] F. Donelli, ‘The Ankara consensus: the significance of Turkey’s engagement in sub-Saharan Africa’, Global Change, Peace & Security 30 (1) 2018, p. 59.

[55] Ibid., p. 57.

[56] Ibid., p. 60.

[57] F. Donelli, Turkey in Africa: Turkey’s Strategic Involvement in Sub-Saharan Africa, London, New York, Oxford, New Delhi, Sydney 2021, p. 263.

[58] I.N. Telci, ‘The Horn of Africa as Venue for Regional Competition: Motivations, Instruments and Relationship Patterns’, Insight on Africa 14 (1) 2022, p. 81.

[59] This number includes embassies, consulates and trade offices. Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Dışişleri Bakanlığı, 2022 Yılı Performans Programı [2022 Performance Program], 10/2/2022, p. 4.

[60] Cottey and Forster, Reshaping Defense Diplomacy: New Roles for Military Cooperation and Assistance, op. cit., pp. 58–65.

[61] Sıradağ, ‘Turkey-Africa alliance: Evolving patterns in security relations’, op. cit., pp. 316–7.

[62] S. Orakçi, ‘The Rise of Turkey in Africa’, Al Jazeera Center for Studies 9/1/2022, http://studies.aljazeera.net/en/analyses/rise-turkey-africa (accessed 7/5/2022).

[63] A. Rossiter and B.J. Cannon, ‘Re-examining the “Base”: The Political and Security Dimensions of Turkey’s Military Presence in Somalia’, Insight Turkey 2018, p. 170.

[64] Donelli, ‘Turkey’s involvement in Sub-Saharan Africa: an empirical analysis of multitrack approach’, op. cit., p. 21.

[65] M. Bayar and E. Arpa, ‘South—South Cooperation in Africa: The Niger-Turkey Case’, Journal of Global South Studies, 37(1), 2020, p. 37.

[66] Y. Turhan, ‘Turkey’s Foreign Aid to Africa: An Analysis of the Post-July 15 Era’, Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, 23(5), 2021, p. 798.

[67] Donelli, ‘Turkey’s involvement in Sub-Saharan Africa: an empirical analysis of multitrack approach’, op. cit., p. 24.

[68] Turhan, ‘Turkey’s Foreign Aid to Africa: An Analysis of the Post-July 15 Era’, op. cit., p. 807.

[69] Donelli, ‘The Ankara consensus: the significance of Turkey’s engagement in sub-Saharan Africa’, op. cit., p. 58.

[70] Telci, ‘The Horn of Africa as Venue for Regional Competition: Motivations, Instruments and Relationship Patterns’, op. cit., p. 76.

[71] W.A. Sanchez and S. Morgan, ‘Arms Sales in Africa: A Buyer’s Market’, Geopolitical Monitor 16/12/2019, https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/arms-sales-in-africa-a-buyers-market/ (accessed 30/1/2022).

[72] L. Béraud-Sudreau et al., ‘Emerging Suppliers in the Global Arms Trade’, SIPRI, SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security, 2020/13, 12/2020, p. 1.

[73] Department of State, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, op. cit.

[74] Ibid.

[75] SIPRI, Arms Transfers Database, op. cit.

[76] Ibid.

[77] E. Lionel, ‘TAI confirms sale of T-129 ATAK helicopter to Nigeria’, Military Africa 26/7/2022, https://www.military.africa/2022/07/tai-confirms-sale-of-t-129-atak-hhelicopter-to-nigeria/ (accessed 30/7/2022).

[78] SIPRI, Arms Transfers Database, op. cit.

[79] Ibid.

[80] A. Mevlütoğlu, ‘Türkiye’nin Politikaları ve Savunma Sanayii: İHA İhracatı [Turkey’s Policies and Defence Industry: UAS Exports]’, Perspektif 4/3/2022, https://www.perspektif.online/turkiyenin-politikalari-ve-savunma-sanayii-iha-ihracati/ (accessed 9/8/2022).

[81] Ibid.

[82] Mevlütoğlu, ‘Türkiye’nin Politikaları ve Savunma Sanayii: İHA İhracatı [Turkey’s Policies and Defence Industry: UAS Exports]’, op. cit.

[83] R. Jennings, ‘Why Chinese Weapons Exports Are Declining Despite Loyal Clientele’, VOA 5/10/2021, https://www.voanews.com/a/chinese-weapons-exports-decline/6258163.html (accessed 16/8/2022).

[84] B.J. Cannon, ‘Out of Africa: the impact of drones in Sub-Saharan conflicts’, Defense & Security Analysis 5/3/2023, p. 2.

[85] Ibid., p. 1.

[86] Star, ‘SSB Başkanı Demir’den dost ülkelere açık çek! “Kısıtlamayı düşünmüyoruz” [Blank Check o Friendly Countries from SSB President Demir! “We do not think limitations”]’, Star.com.tr 28/7/2022, https://www.star.com.tr/ekonomi/ssb-baskani-demirden-dost-ulkelere-acik-cek-kisitlamayi-dusunmuyoruz-haber-1721292/ (accessed 9/8/2022).

[87] Jennings, ‘Why Chinese Weapons Exports Are Declining Despite Loyal Clientele’, op. cit.

[88] SIPRI, Arms Transfers Database, op. cit.

[89] Ibid.

[90] A. Eren, Strengthening Ties Between Turkey And Nigeria Through YTB, Yurtdışı Türkler ve Akraba Topluluklar Başkanlığı 19/10/2021, https://www.ytb.gov.tr/en/news/strengthening-ties-between-turkey-and-nigeria-through-ytb (accessed 7/5/2022).

[91] S. Ramani, ‘What does the transition in Chad mean for Middle Eastern regional powers?’, Middle East Institute 26/4/2021, https://www.mei.edu/publications/what-does-transition-chad-mean-middle-eastern-regional-powers (accessed 7/5/2022).

[92] SIPRI, Arms Transfers Database, op. cit.

[93] Turkey-Rwanda Relations, Republic of Turkey Ministry of Foreign Affairs, https://www.mfa.gov.tr/relations-between-turkey-and-rwanda.en.mfa (accessed 7/5/2022).

[94] Ibid.

[95] A. Stein, ‘Say Hello to Turkey’s Little Friend: How Drones Help Level the Playing Field’, War on the Rocks 11/6/2021, https://warontherocks.com/2021/06/say-hello-to-turkeys-little-friend-how-drones-help-level-the-playing-field/ (accessed 9/8/2022).

[96] Quoted in R. Dixon, ‘Azerbaijan’s drones owned the battlefield in Nagorno-Karabakh—and showed future of warfare’, Washington Post 11/11/2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/nagorno-karabkah-drones-azerbaijan-aremenia/2020/11/11/441bcbd2-193d-11eb-8bda-814ca56e138b_story.html (accessed 15/8/2022).

[97] SIPRI, Arms Transfers Database, op. cit.; P. Melly, ‘Turkey’s Bayraktar TB2 drone: Why African states are buying them’, BBC News 25/8/2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-62485325 (accessed 26/8/2022); S. Tavsan, ‘Turkey unleashes hard power wave in Africa with drone sales’, Nikkei Asia 3/11/2021, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Turkey-unleashes-hard-power-wave-in-Africa-with-drone-sales (accessed 8/5/2022).

[98] K. Kurunç, ‘Doğu Afrika Ülkesi Ruanda, Türkiye’den S/İHA Almak İstiyor [East African State Rwanda Wants to Buy UCAV from Turkey]’, SavunmaSanayiST.com 10/10/2021.

[99] K. Kurunç, ‘Afrika Ülkesi Angola, Türkiye’den İHA/SİHA Talep Ediyor [African States Angola Requests UAV/UCAV from Turkey]’, SavunmaSanayiST.com 18/10/2021, https://www.savunmasanayist.com/afrika-ulkesi-angola-turkiyeden-iha-siha-talep-ediyor/ (accessed 7/5/2022).

[100] Y.S. Inanc, ‘Turkey and its drones in Africa—a switch to hard power?’, Middle East Eye 21/10/2021, http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-africa-drones-switch-hard-power (accessed 7/5/2022).

[101] J. Spicer, G. Paravicini, and O. Coskun, ‘U.S. concerned over Turkey’s drone sales to conflict-hit Ethiopia’, Reuters 22/12/2021, https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-us-concerned-over-turkeys-drone-sales-conflict-hit-ethiopia-2021-12-22/ (accessed 2/8/2022).

[102] J. Malsin and E. Kivilcim, ‘Drones, Unmanned Boats and Killer Robots Have Made Turkey an Arms-Industry Powerhouse’, WSJ 21/7/2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/drones-unmanned-boats-and-killer-robots-have-made-turkey-an-arms-industry-powerhouse-11658404887 (accessed 27/8/2022).

[103] Telci, ‘The Horn of Africa as Venue for Regional Competition: Motivations, Instruments and Relationship Patterns’, op. cit.

[104] Spicer, Paravicini, and Coskun, ‘U.S. concerned over Turkey’s drone sales to conflict-hit Ethiopia’, op. cit.

[105] Ibid.

[106] Ibid.

[107] A.O. Tepeciklioğlu, ‘Theorizing Turkey’s Africa Policy: Turkey as a Rising Power’, in : E. Eyrice Tepeciklioğlu and A.O. Tepeciklioğlu (eds.), Turkey in Africa: A New Emerging Power?, London and New York 2022, p. 27.

[108] H. Mehmetcik and A.C. Çelik, ‘The Militarization of Turkish Foreign Policy’, Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, 24(1), 2/1/2022, pp. 24–41.

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