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ABSTRACT
This study offers an overview of Kerala's party-system development, media landscape and campaign dynamics against the backdrop of the 2019 parliamentary election. The 2019 election was widely predicted to be a golden opportunity for the BJP to secure its first parliamentary seat from Kerala, with the highly emotive and polarizing ‘women’s entry into Sabarimala temple’ becoming the most salient campaign issue. The study situates this key campaign issue and its mobilisational potential in Kerala’s party-system and hybrid media environment. Drawing from pre-election field research, it argues that the BJP’s framing of the Sabarimala verdict, its use of religiously-coded campaign messaging, and its ability to adapt the form and style of campaign communication for the digital era enabled a sizable consolidation of the Hindu vote behind the BJP, moderately threatening the stability of Kerala’s entrenched bi-polar party system. Yet, the Sabarimala issue did not deliver the anticipated electoral results for the BJP due to Kerala’s unique political context. The residual effect of the Sabarimala issue in the 2021 legislative assembly election is discussed in conclusion.
Acknowledgments
This work draws on research supported by Carleton University International Research Seed Grant and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1. Franke and Chasin, Kerala: Radical Reform as Development; Dreze and Sen, India: Economic Development and Social Opportunity; Jeffrey, Politics, Women and Well-Being.
2. Chiriyankandath, “Hindu Nationalism and Regional Political Culture in India”.
3. Törnquist, “Movement, Politics and Development”.
4. Heller, The Labour of Development; Kannan, Of Rural Proletarian Struggles.
5. Jeffrey, “Governments and Culture”.
6. Political competition is so high that the winning candidates in Kerala have an average vote-share margin of 4% compared to about 14% nationally. See Sadanandan, Why Democracy Deepens.
7. Ornstein and Mann, The Permanent Campaign.
8. Jeffrey, “Testing Concepts about Print, Newspapers, and Politics”.
9. Election Commission of India, “Election Results”.
10. Zachariah, “Religious Denominations of Kerala”. The national figures are Hindus 80%, Muslims 13%, and Christians 2.3%.
11. Ibid.
12. Wilkinson, Votes and Violence.
13. Modern Kerala was created from the amalgamation of the two princely states of Travancore (southern Kerala) and Cochin (central Kerala), along with the Malabar district (northern Kerala) of the Madras presidency in British India.
14. Nossiter, Communism in Kerala; and Tharakan, “Socio-Economic Factors in Educational Development”.
15. Brahmins are a Hindu caste higher than the Nairs in the caste hierarchy.
16. The Sri Narayana Dharma Paripalana Sangam (SNDP), an Ezhava community organization, was formed in 1903. In 1914, the Nairs set up their own communal organization, the Nair Service Society. See Jeffrey, “The Social Origins of a Caste Association”; and Chandramohan, Development Modernity in Kerala.
17. Kothari, “The Congress System in India”.
18. Chiriyankandath, “Communities at the Polls”; Mathew, Communal Road to a Secular Kerala; and Devika, “Egalitarian Developmentalism”.
19. Chadwick, The Hybrid Media System.
20. See note 8 above.
21. TRAI, “Highlights of Telecom Subscription Data”.
22. Ibid.
23. Media Research Users Council, “Indian Readership Survey 2017”.
24. Ibid.
25. Also see Harikumar, “New Programming Practices and Readers”.
26. Jeffrey, “Malayalam”. It would be incorrect to simply reduce these newspapers to their caste/religious identities as they cater to a wider readership. They also had regional affinities. Until the 1980s Mathrubhumi was a northern Kerala paper, Malayala Manorama was based in south-central Kerala, and Kerala Kaumudi was a southern paper.
27. See note 23 above.
28. Jain, “From forced Mann Ki Baat broadcasts to ban on politics”.
29. Ibid.
30. Radio & Music, “Radio Mango’s Anjana Nayar Reveals How Radio Stations Function During Elections”.
31. CVoter, “Daily Tracking Poll”.
32. Rajagopal, Politics after Television.
33. Mehta, ‘“Breaking News, Indian Style.”’
34. See note 31 above.
35. Thussu, News as Entertainment.
36. Thomas, “Public Sector Software and the Revolution”.
37. Hallin and Mancini, Comparing Media Systems.
38. Seymour-Ure, The Political Impact of Mass Media.
39. Chakravartty and Roy, “Media Pluralism Redux”.
40. Ameerudheen, “Party-run Newspapers”.
41. During the 2019 elections, PM Modi addressed 144 rallies, while the Congress chief Rahul Gandhi addressed 125.
42. Lilleker, Political Communication and Cognition; Lilleker, Tenscher, and Štětka, “Towards Hypermedia Campaigning?”
43. Lees-Marshment and Lilleker, “Knowledge Sharing and Lesson Learning.”
44. George and Praveen, “Parties Tread the Digital.”
45. Anand, “Inside a Congress IT War Room.”
46. IAMAI, “Social Media Impact”.
47. Philip, “Kerala Elections: A Website for Every Top Leader.”
48. Anand, “Inside a Congress IT War Room”; Perrigo, “How Volunteers for India’s Ruling Party”; and Uttam, “For PM Modi’s 2019 Campaign.”
49. See note 44 above.
50. See note 45 above.
51. See note 47 above.
52. Bijukumar, “When Religious Faith Mutilates Gender Equality”. For a timeline of the Sabarimala verdict, see Wire Staff, “Sabarimala Verdict”. The Sabarimala temple is dedicated to a celibate deity called Ayyappan.
53. Ironically, the RSS, a cadre-based organization, has a robust presence in Kerala with the highest number of local units in India (5300 local units) and about 70 affiliate organizations, contrary to the lacklustre strength of its political wing, the BJP. Translating this grassroots presence into a vote base has been a political enigma for Kerala’s BJP, something that happens more seamlessly in other states. Polarization based on religious issues and victim narratives helps to galvanize more of the RSS membership into voting for the BJP.
54. Jayarajan, “In Kerala, RSS Plans To Expand.”
55. Some of these organizations include Sabarimala Achara Samrakshana Samithi (Committee to Protect Tradition and Customs at Sabarimala), Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha (BJYM), Bharatiya Mahila Morcha, Hindu Aikya Vedi, Vivenkananda Sarga Vedi, Veera Shivaji Desa Seva Samithi, Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad, Seva Bharati, Antar-rashtriya Hindu Parishad, Ayyappa Dharma Sena, Sabarimala Ayyappa Seva Samajam, National Ayyappa Devotee Association, Ayappa Dharma Samrakshana Samithi and Save Sabarimala Forum.
56. Wire Staff, “Sabarimala Pilgrimage: Women Stopped from Travelling to the Temple.”
57. RSS, “Sarkaryavah [General Secretary’s] Report”. Following this stance, the BJP government in Maharashtra had implemented the Mumbai High Court order permitting women’s entry into the Shani Shingnapur Temple in Maharashtra. See Dhupkar, “What if Sabarimala was in a BJP-ruled State?”
58. Pande, “RSS Backs Women’s Entry In Temples.”
59. Chandran, “RSS To Iron Out Issues.”
60. Mathew and Verma, “Sentiments of Devotees Cannot Be Ignored.”
61. The Hindu, ‘“Save Sabarimala” Rath-Yatra Rolls Out In Kerala.”
62. RSS, “Annual Report 2019.”
63. Rajagopal, “Ready to Wait till 50.”
64. Koshy, “General Elections 2019.”
65. Warrier, “Was Tharoor’s Mishap an Accident.”
66. Thulabharam is a ritual practice of weighing a devotee against some precious commodity, such as food items, flowers, gold or silver, and donating the weighed commodity to the deities.
67. See note 64 above.
68. Election Commission of India, “Election Results”; and The Hindu, “Rise in BJP, UDF Vote Share.”
69. Sardesai, “The Religious Divide.”
70. Lokniti-CSDS, “NES 2019”; and Lokniti-CSDS, “NES 2014.”
71. See note 69 above.
72. Arafath, “Hindutva’s Onward March in Kerala.”
73. Sardesai, “A Shift in Social Basis of Voting.”
74. Bansal, “How the BJP.”
75. Dutton, “The Fifth Estate.”
76. Janardhanan, “CM Pinarayi Vijayan Stands.”
77. Ibid.
78. Manmathan, “Temple as the Site of Struggle”; Roopesh, “Temple as the Political Arena”; and Roopesh, “Sabarimala Protest.”
79. Roopesh, “Temple as the Political Arena.”
80. See note 69 above.
81. Menon, Caste, Nationalism and Communism in South India. For a historical overview of the Sangh Parivar’s efforts to unite the Hindus, see Jayaprasad, RSS and Hindu Nationalism.
82. Prasad, “Guess Who’s after the Hindu Vote.”
83. Sasikumar and Sunilraj, “Countering the Left by Moving Rightwards.”
84. Ibid.
85. Sardesai, “Sabarimala did not Become an Electoral Issue.”
86. Ibid.
87. Sasikumar and Sunilraj, “Countering the Left by Moving Rightwards”; and Prabhash and Ibrahim, “Changing Voting Behaviour in Kerala Elections.”
88. Mannathukkaren, “Kerala Assembly Election 2021”; and Sasikumar and Sunilraj, “Countering the Left by Moving Rightwards.”
89. Sardesai, “Sabarimala did not Become an Electoral Issue”; and Divakaran, “Impact of the Kerala Congress(M) on the Left Democratic Front.”
90. Prabhash and Ibrahim, “Changing Voting Behaviour in Kerala Elections”; Sasikumar and Sunilraj, “Countering the Left by Moving Rightwards.”
91. NDA vote share, 2011 to 2021: 6.06% in 2011, 10.81% in 2014, 15.03% in 2016, 15.20% in 2019, and 12.47% in 2021. See Election Commission of India, “Election Results”; and Ramani et al., “The Left returns in Kerala.”