Seismic hazard assessment of Kashmir and Kangra valley region, Western Himalaya, India

Figures & data

Table 1. Chronological listing of earthquakes from 1500 to 1963 (area latitude 30°– 36°N and longitude 72°–78°E).

No.	Source	YR	MO	DT	HR	MN	Sec.	Lat.	Long.	Ms	Mb	Mw	Depth (km)
1	I	1501	9	24				34.00	75.00			6.4
2	IMD	1552*						34.00	74.50			7.5
3	A	1555*	9		22	0		33.50	75.50			7.6
4	QJ	1669	6	22				34.00	76.00	6.0		6.1
5	IMD	1669	6	23				33.90	72.30	6.5		6.4
6	IMD	1827	9	24				31.60	74.40	6.0		6.1
7	IMD	1828	6	26				34.00	74.00	6.5		6.4
8	IMD	1852	1	24				34.00	73.00	6.0		6.1
9	IMD	1856	4	7				31.33	77.50	5.0		5.3
10	IMD	1869	12	20				33.36	73.04	5.0		5.3
11	IMD	1871	5	22				35.90	74.30	6.0		6.1
12	IMD	1875	12	12				31.60	74.40	5.5		5.7
13	A	1878	3	2	12	30		34.00	73.20			6.7
14	A	1885	5	29	2	45		34.10	74.60			6.4
15	A	1905	4	4	0	50		33.00	76.00			7.8	50
16	A	1906	2	27	19	40		31.50	77.50			6.4
17	ISS	1914	10	9	2	39	16.80	32.85	75.86	6.1		6.1	33
18	ISS	1916	6	21	19	56	9.00	34.50	77.00	5.6		5.8	33
19	IMD	1917	5	17	21	45	50.00	34.20	77.50	6.0		6.1
20	IMD	1921	11	11	1	18	45.00	34.20	77.50	5.5		5.7
21	IMD	1923	9	30	23	10	15.00	35.50	77.00	5.5		5.7
22	ISS	1928	11	14	4	33	5.40	34.83	72.50	6.0		6.1	50
23	ISS	1929	9	24	13	52	14.00	35.64	74.48				33
24	ISS	1937	11	7	19	7	46.00	34.77	73.07	5.3		5.6	35
25	ISS	1941	1	10	7	38	15.80	34.27	77.96				33
26	ISS	1945	6	22	18	0	55.40	32.78	76.13	6.5		6.4	33
27	ISS	1947	7	10	10	19	24.70	32.83	76.14	6.0		6.1	33
28	ISS	1949	8	1	7	39	52.30	35.34	74.58	5.2		5.5	49
29	ISS	1950	8	12	3	59	17.50	33.20	75.82	5.5		5.7	62
30	ISS	1950	9	12	6	16	9.60	35.75	73.30				58
31	ISS	1950	9	25	17	58	3.30	32.64	76.71				81
32	ISS	1950	10	6	21	20	44.40	32.17	77.02
33	ISS	1951	9	12	20	41	46.70	32.78	75.89	5.5		5.7	2
34	ISS	1951	9	15	0	56	15.00	32.84	76.23				33
35	ISS	1952	12	27	18	45	40.20	31.07	74.75	5.5		5.7	33
36	ISS	1953	5	1	21	18	15.70	33.54	72.67	5.5		5.7	39
37	BCI	1955	3	10	21	16	24.20	33.14	77.06				12
38	ISS	1955	3	12	16	42	23.10	34.60	73.20	5.5		5.7	51
39	BCI	1955	4	14	1	0	49.00	32.25	76.49		5.3	5.5	33
40	ISS	1960	2	4	10	20	41.90	35.59	77.37				57
41	BCI	1961	3	20	14	0	30.90	35.60	77.56				66
42	BCI	1961	6	4	23	35	32.20	33.26	75.28				51
43	BCI	1961	6	9	3	55	46.50	34.61	74.11				44
44	BCI	1961	8	8	18	53	20.20	34.18	74.46				33
45	BCI	1961	11	28	10	14	44.70	35.61	73.05				4
46	BCI	1962	5	8	19	38	29.20	33.58	72.49	4.5		5.0	51
47	EHB	1962	6	17	4	39	32.53	33.23	75.89	5.2		5.5	35
48	ISS	1962	8	2	15	32	23.00	33.52	73.37	4.5		5.0	46
49	IMD	1962	9	15	12	35	8.00	31.90	76.20	5.5		5.7
50	QUE	1963	3	6	8	35	0.50	34.00	72.50	4.3		4.9
51	MOS	1963	5	23	17	13	12.00	32.80	76.00	4.5		5.0
52	EHB	1963	9	2	1	34	31.57	33.89	74.76	5.1		5.5	25
53	CGS	1963	9	9	21	41	43.60	31.30	72.10		4.7	5.0	33

I: Iyengar et al. 1999, parameters assigned from description; A: Ambraseys and Douglas 2004; QJ: Quittmeyer and Jacob 1979; Ms: Surface wave Magnitude; Mb: Body wave Magnitude; Mw: Moment Magnitude; * possible duplicate.

Figure 1. Tectonic setting of the Western Himalaya with special emphasis on 8 October 2005, Muzaffarabad earthquake with its CMT solution; colour-shaded areas showing IKSZ (Indus–Kohistan Seismic Zone) and estimated locations of ruptures in 1555 Kashmir (Mw 7.6) and 1905 Kangra (Mw 7.8) earthquakes (after Bilham 2004; Avouac et al. 2006). Velocity of peninsular India (given in arrow head with value) relative to stable Eurasia computed from the Euler pole of the Indian Plate determined by Bettinelli et al. (2006). ISZ: Indus Suture Zone; KF: Karakoram Fault; MFT: Main Frontal Thrust; MBT: Main Boundary Thrust; MMT: Main Mantle Thrust; SRT: Salt Range Thrust; MCT: Main Central Thrust; MKT: Main Karakoram Thrust; NP: Nanga-Parbat; SS: Shyok Suture.

Figure 2. Seismo-tectonic map of Western Himalaya in and around the Western Syntaxis with historical earthquake data 1501–1963 (see table 1). The number is given as per No. of table 1 and discussed in the text. Tectonic domains, earthquake with magnitude variation and tectonic planes are shown. MBT: Main Boundary Thrust; MCT: Main Central Thrust; ISZ: Indus–Tsangpo Suture Zone; MMT: Main Mantle Thrust; SS: Shyok Suture; KF: Karakoram Fault; SF: Shinkiari Fault; AT: Attock Fault; JF: Jhelum Fault; ATF: Altyn Tagh Fault; MF: Mangla Fault; SuF: Sundernagar Fault; JT: Jwalamukhi Thrust; DT: Drang Thrust; VT: Vaikrita Thrust; KiF: Kishtwar Fault; RF: Ropar Fault; MDF: Mahendragarh Dehradun Fault; MFT: Main Frontal Thrust; KB: Kashmir basin; PB: Peshwar Basin.

Figure 3(a). Seismo-tectonic map of Western Himalaya in and around the Western Syntaxis with earthquake data 1964–2010 and symbology as per magnitude and depth. Note five earthquake cluster zones (A–E): Kohistan arc (A); Kashmir–Hazara syntaxis (B); Nanga–Parbat (Western Syntaxis) (C); Karakoram (D) and Himachal Himalaya (E). Tectonic domains, earthquake with magnitude variation and tectonic planes are shown. MBT: Main Boundary Thrust; MCT: Main Central Thrust; ISZ: Indus–Tsangpo Suture Zone; MMT: Main Mantle Thrust; SS: Shyok Suture; KF: Karakoram Fault; SF: Shinkiari Fault; AT: Attock Fault; JF: Jhelum Fault; ATF: Altyn Tagh Fault; MF: Mangla Fault; SuF: Sundernagar Fault; JT: Jwalamukhi Thrust; DT: Drang Thrust; VT: Vaikrita Thrust; KiF: Kishtwar Fault; RF: Ropar Fault; MDF: Mahendragarh Dehradun Fault; MFT: Main Frontal Thrust.

Figure 3(b). Seismo-geological sections across Western Himalaya (modified after figure 5 of Mukhopadhyay et al. 2011b) where subducting Indian Plate and overriding Eurasian plate in the sections have resulted into generation of imbricate structure. Position of section lines is marked in figure 3(a). Note the low dipping Indian Plate in Kashmir-Hazara and Kohistan arc sector in section A–A′. Thickening of Indian Plate in sections B–B′ and C–C′ along Naga Parbat is noteworthy. The imbrications are again relevant in Himachal Himalaya–Karakoram sector along section D–D′. The important beach ball diagrams are placed in the section to understand the tectonic variations across arc. For reference of CMT solution, please refer to table 2 with number given in the sections. NP – Nanga-Parbat.

Figure 3(c). Isoseismal map of 8 October 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake, Mw 7.6 (after Pande et al. 2006). Green line indicates surface rupture.

Figure 4. Frequency–magnitude distribution of the data (1964–2010) in the catalogue used. The result of the MAXC approach (Wiemer and Wyss 2000) is indicated with the arrow as magnitude completeness (Mc = 4.0).

Table 2. CMT solutions (source: http://www.seismology.harvard.edu) for 70 earthquakes (period 1980–2009) in the Western Himalaya. The solution parameters are discussed in the text. The value of first column (No.) is plotted on the maps (figure 5) and beach ball diagrams (figure 6).

No.	DA	MO	YR	HR	MN	SEC	Lat.	Long.	Depth	Mw	Plane1 Azimuth	Plane1 Dip	Plane1 Rake	Plane 2 Azimuth	Plane2 Dip	Plane2 Rake	P axis Azimuth	P axis Dip	T axis Azimuth	T axis Dip	N axis Dip	N axis Azimuth
1	23	8	1980	21	36	55	33	75.8	15	5.5	293	10	63	140	81	95	226	36	56	54	5	319
2	23	8	1980	21	50	5.7	33	75.8	15	5.5	298	12	82	126	78	92	214	33	38	57	2	305
3	12	9	1981	7	15	58	36	73.6	10	6.1	107	36	79	300	54	98	25	9	240	79	6	116
4	22	2	1982	17	59	58	36	73.8	15	5.2	123	43	76	322	48	103	43	2	299	80	10	133
5	26	4	1986	7	35	20	32	76.4	15	5.5	299	19	58	153	74	100	235	28	77	60	10	330
6	16	7	1986	22	3	12	30	78.2	15	5.4	278	17	37	152	80	104	231	33	79	53	14	330
7	24	1	1992	5	4	53	36	74.6	103	5.4	268	86	0	358	90	−176	223	3	133	3	86	3
8	8	4	1993	3	49	34	36	77.6	15	5.2	269	73	−14	4	77	−163	227	21	136	2	68	40
9	15	6	1993	23	12	23	36	77.8	15	5	95	74	−13	188	78	−163	52	20	321	3	69	224
10	1	4	1996	8	8	6.5	31	73.5	91.7	5.2	98	33	101	265	58	83	0	12	153	76	6	269
11	19	6	2000	22	41	50	35	77.5	40.4	5.4	179	77	−179	89	89	−13	43	10	134	8	77	264
12	16	7	2001	16	7	19	33	73.1	85.2	5.1	65	36	49	292	64	116	4	15	243	62	23	100
13	28	9	2001	4	37	59	33	75.8	40.5	4.9	323	32	105	125	59	81	222	14	10	74	8	130
14	27	1	2002	22	33	43	33	76	28.8	5.2	225	20	−11	325	86	−110	215	45	73	38	20	326
15	1	11	2002	22	9	34	35	74.7	33	5.3	216	42	−90	36	48	−90	306	87	126	3	0	36
16	3	11	2002	7	33	40	35	74.6	16.8	5.3	45	30	−69	201	62	−102	86	70	299	17	10	206
17	20	11	2002	21	32	36	35	74.6	15	6.3	204	30	−117	55	64	−75	354	68	134	17	13	229
18	14	2	2004	10	30	28	35	73.2	12	5.4	111	49	57	336	51	122	44	1	311	65	25	134
19	14	2	2004	11	57	3.3	35	73.2	19	5.3	339	40	119	123	56	68	229	8	342	70	18	136
20	31	10	2004	0	18	39	35	74.5	20.3	4.7	247	22	−92	70	68	−89	341	67	159	23	1	249
21	31	10	2004	6	2	56	35	74.4	14.7	4.9	39	74	−164	304	75	−16	261	22	352	0	68	82
22	31	10	2004	6	10	38	35	74.5	12	5.1	253	36	−65	42	58	−107	271	72	145	11	15	52
23	8	10	2005	3	50	52	35	73.6	12	7.6	334	40	123	114	57	65	221	9	334	68	20	128
24	8	10	2005	10	46	35	35	73.1	12	6.4	328	39	107	127	53	77	226	7	349	78	10	135
25	8	10	2005	12	8	31	35	73.2	14.3	5.6	321	31	108	121	60	80	218	15	5	73	9	126
26	8	10	2005	12	25	20	35	73.1	17.2	5.7	96	47	55	321	53	122	30	3	292	65	25	121
27	8	10	2005	21	13	34	35	73.2	12	5.5	8	41	118	153	54	68	259	7	9	71	18	167
28	8	10	2005	21	45	13	35	73.3	12	5.4	338	33	121	122	62	71	226	15	356	67	16	131
29	8	10	2005	22	4	31	35	73.3	12	4.9	279	25	33	159	77	112	232	28	95	54	21	334
30	8	10	2005	22	53	46	35	73.2	12	4.8	354	23	116	145	69	79	244	24	38	64	10	149
31	9	10	2005	4	58	57	35	73.1	12	5	282	28	87	105	62	92	194	17	19	73	1	284
32	9	10	2005	7	9	21	35	73.2	12	5.3	315	29	104	119	62	82	215	17	11	72	7	123
33	9	10	2005	8	30	6.3	35	73.2	12	5.7	344	37	121	127	59	69	232	12	354	68	18	139
34	9	10	2005	8	59	38	35	73.3	12	4.8	279	21	42	150	76	106	227	29	80	56	16	326
35	9	10	2005	9	22	34	35	73.4	12	4.9	151	62	154	254	67	31	22	4	114	37	53	287
36	9	10	2005	11	21	45	35	73.2	15.7	5	328	22	130	105	73	75	207	27	355	59	14	110
37	9	10	2005	12	38	15	35	73.2	12	4.9	284	38	107	82	54	77	182	8	309	77	11	90
38	9	10	2005	19	20	40	34	73.7	12	5.3	286	37	104	89	54	79	186	8	321	78	8	95
39	9	10	2005	19	47	0.8	35	73	17	4.9	257	47	63	114	49	116	186	1	92	71	19	276
40	10	10	2005	12	38	12	35	73.1	12	4.9	307	43	137	71	62	56	185	11	293	58	30	89
41	12	10	2005	20	23	44	35	73.2	12	5.3	315	42	97	126	49	84	220	4	348	84	5	129
42	13	10	2005	20	49	26	35	73.2	13.6	4.9	349	40	122	131	57	66	237	9	351	68	20	144
43	14	10	2005	19	37	48	35	73.2	20.4	4.8	117	33	49	344	66	113	57	18	290	62	21	154
44	17	10	2005	10	43	10	35	73.2	21.2	4.9	314	40	104	116	51	79	214	6	337	80	9	123
45	18	10	2005	21	20	7.8	35	73.1	12	5	299	32	103	104	59	82	200	14	353	74	7	108
46	19	10	2005	2	33	33	35	73.1	12	5.6	303	31	105	106	60	81	202	15	353	73	8	110
47	19	10	2005	3	16	26	35	73.1	12	5.4	308	44	103	110	47	78	209	2	310	81	9	119
48	19	10	2005	12	47	33	35	73.1	12	5.1	306	33	56	165	63	110	240	16	112	66	18	335
49	23	10	2005	15	4	23	35	73	12	5.5	307	32	110	105	60	78	203	14	346	72	10	111
50	23	10	2005	19	28	27	35	73.1	12	4.8	293	34	123	75	62	70	180	14	306	67	18	85
51	24	10	2005	13	14	15	35	73.2	16.9	4.8	68	43	54	292	57	118	3	8	256	66	23	96
52	26	10	2005	1	42	45	34	73.9	21.9	4.8	266	32	41	140	70	115	211	21	84	57	24	310
53	28	10	2005	21	34	18	35	73.2	12	5.2	357	38	132	129	63	63	238	13	355	62	24	142
54	6	11	2005	2	11	56	35	73.4	13	5.1	274	14	34	151	82	102	231	36	74	51	12	329
55	20	11	2005	5	35	6.3	35	73.2	20.5	4.8	345	42	106	144	50	76	244	4	356	78	11	153
56	21	11	2005	8	26	14	35	73.1	12	5.2	341	55	159	83	73	37	209	11	308	38	50	105
57	1	12	2005	15	38	29	35	73.2	13.2	4.7	104	41	103	268	50	79	6	4	122	81	8	275
58	25	12	2005	8	2	10	35	73.3	15.2	5.2	5	10	170	105	88	80	205	42	5	46	10	105
59	28	12	2005	22	4	37	35	73.4	28.6	5.1	12	71	−174	281	84	−19	235	17	328	9	71	84
60	2	2	2006	21	49	3.7	35	73.2	18.8	4.9	160	42	120	302	54	66	49	6	156	69	20	317
61	8	2	2006	12	57	32	35	73.3	33.1	4.8	306	33	84	133	57	94	220	12	56	77	3	311
62	10	3	2006	7	50	17	33	73.8	24.7	4.9	246	21	61	96	71	101	178	26	22	62	10	273
63	19	3	2006	2	49	4.1	35	73.2	22.7	4.9	319	35	91	138	55	89	228	10	44	80	1	138
64	20	3	2006	17	40	49	35	73.8	12	5.2	185	47	32	72	67	132	133	12	29	49	38	232
65	4	4	2006	9	12	23	35	73.2	12	4.6	98	44	57	320	54	117	31	6	287	67	22	123
66	26	10	2007	6	50	10	35	76.7	12	5.2	274	66	−10	8	80	−156	233	24	139	10	64	28
67	11	12	2007	15	56	41	35	77.5	20.5	5.1	263	53	−13	1	79	−143	229	34	127	17	51	15
68	20	2	2009	3	48	54	34	73.8	17.6	5.5	308	21	99	118	70	87	211	25	22	65	3	119
69	27	7	2009	6	23	53	35	73.2	25.9	5	338	34	130	113	65	67	220	17	345	63	21	123
70	6	12	2009	4	33	22	36	77.4	111	5.2	348	19	158	99	83	73	204	36	350	49	17	101

Figure 5. (a) DEM with Tectonic planes and locations of CMT solutions (70 numbers of table 2). No. of table 2 is placed as number. The blow-up version with locations of CMT data (b) Kashmir–Hazara Systaxis with mainly aftershocks of 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake and (c) part of Nanga-Parbat Syntaxis.

Figure 6. Beach ball diagrams of 70 numbers of fault plane solutions listed in table 2 and located on the map with numbers (figure 5).

Figure 7. Maps showing spatial variation in b-value from time domain 1969 to 2010; b-value map of (a) January 1981 (earthquake database January 1969–December 1980), yellow box indicates the epicentral block of Muzaffarabad earthquake, (b) January 1993 (earthquake database January 1981–December 1992), (c) January 2005 (earthquake database January 1993–December 2004), (d) January 2011 (earthquake database January 2005–December 2010), b-value is calculated for 1° × 1° blocks plotted at the centre of each block and contoured. Epicentre for the 8 October 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake (star) and 1905 Kangra earthquake as filled circle are shown. Note that the epicentre of 2005 locates close to the moderate high b-value zone.

Figure 8. Temporal variation in b-value in the epicentral block (marked as box in figure 7(a)) of 8 October 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake. See the standard error in b-value estimation in different bins as table. Note the high–low b-value couplet preceding the 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake.

Table 3. Expected return period with expected maximum magnitude (Mw) as per Gumbel's extreme value statistics.

Return period (T in years)	Expected magnitude (Mw)
10	5.90
50	7.30
100	7.85
200	8.30

Figure 9. Type III Gumbel probability plot between the R, reduce variate [−ln(−ln Pj)] and Mw_max with the model for the period 1820–2010. The expected extreme magnitude for chosen return period is tabulated (table 3).

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