Modelling and prediction of crop losses from NOAA polar-orbiting operational satellites

Figures & data

Figure 1. Geographic location of Saratov oblast (SO), Russia: cereal crops are growing all over and VH satellite data were collected from the black area.

Table 1. Selection of TCI and VHI predictors for cereal's dY models based on partial correlation coefficients (PCC), Saratov oblast, Russia.

Index	Correlation type	Step	Tci22	Tci23	Tci24	Tci25	Tci26	Tci27	Tci28	Tci29
TCI	CC		0.71	0.72	0.74	0.72	0.69	0.58	0.47	0.75
	PCC	1	0.31	0.15	0.49	0.40	0.61	0.81	0.83	0.58
	PCC	2	0.66		0.51	0.42	0.61	0.81	0.85	0.62
	PCC	3	0.47		0.50		0.68	0.82	0.81	0.52
	PCC	4			0.30		0.79	0.81	0.80	0.70
	PCC	5					0.80	0.81	0.81	0.75
VHI			Vhi22	Vhi23	Vhi24	Vhi25	Vhi26	Vhi27	Vhi28	Vhi29
	CC		0.68	0.79	0.77	0.79	0.80	0.73	0.77	0.73
	PCC	1	0.04	0.03	0.15	0.10	0.79	0.70	0.59	0.73
	PCC	2	0.18		0.16	0.56	0.79	0.71	0.70	0.72
	PCC	3	0.18			0.59	0.80	0.73	0.68	0.72
	PCC	4				0.49	0.80	0.73	0.67	0.72
	PCC	5					0.80	0.77	0.71	0.75

Table 2. Statistics of an independent testing of cereal models (1982--2001), Saratov oblast, Russia.

	Model 11	Model 10	Model 9	Model 8
MB	−0.011	−0.002	0.006	0.008
MBE	0.061	0.064	0.072	0.078
SMBE	0.009(15%)	0.012(22%)	0.013(18%)	0.015(19%)
NMBE	0.052(85%)	0.042(78%)	0.057(82%)	0.063(81%)
R^.2	0.598	0.521	0.544	0.518

MB is Mean Bias between independently predicted (P) and observed (O) yields (t/ha).

MBE is Mean Bias Error of simulated yield, which includes, SMBE–Systematic MSE and NMBE–Non-Systematic MSE.

R² is square of CC between independently simulated P and O yields.

Figure 2. Cereal yield time series in SO, Russia during 1972–2001.

Figure 3. Dynamics of correlation coefficient for Saratov oblast's cereal yield departure from trend with (a) SO spatial mean VCI, TCI, and VHI and (b) with SO spatial monthly mean precipitation and temperature anomaly (deviation from climatic normal).

Figure 4. Observed and independently simulated (equation 11(11) ) SO cereal yield during 2002–2012.

Figure 5. Drought area and intensity for the European Russia and western Kazakhstan in 2010–2012 (Rectangle indicates SO location).

Figure 6. Saratov oblast VHI-based thermal stress dynamics (a) and per cent SO area under droughts of severe-to-extreme and exceptional intensity (b).