Land use/cover spatiotemporal dynamics, and implications on environmental and bioclimatic factors in Chingola district, Zambia

Figures & data

Figure 1. Location map of Chingola district in the Copperbelt province of Zambia.

Figure 2. Flowchart of the methodology used in the study.

Table 1. List of Landsat images used in the study.

Sensor	Date of acquisition	Spatial resolution (m)	Path/Row	Producer
Landsat MSS	1972/09/13	60	185/069	USGS
Landsat 5 ETM	1992/08/29	30	172/068, 172/069	USGS
Landsat 7 ETM+	2001/08/14	30	172/068, 172/069	USGS
Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS	2013/09/08	30	172/068, 172/069	USGS
Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS	2018/09/12	30	172/068, 172/069	USGS

OLI: Operation Land Imager; USGS: United States Geological Survey; MSS: Multispectral Scanner System; TM: Thematic Mapper.

Table 2. Land use and land cover classification scheme considered in this study.

Land cover classes	Description
Forest	Deciduous forest, evergreen forest, mixed forest lands, orchards, commercial plantation, protected areas, and nurseries
Built-ups areas	Urban/rural settlements or residential areas, commercial zones with transportation and communication facilities, industry, Airport terminal, Civic Centre.
Mining areas	Mined lands, open pits, quarries, tailing dams, mine processing plants
Savannah woodlands/Grasslands	Stunted height degraded forest, shrubs, or grasses
Water	River, lakes, ponds, reservoirs/dams, streams
Farmlands	Pasture, orchards, home garden, areas cover with perennial and annual crops but may be fallow
Bare lands	Barren areas devoid of vegetation cover and consisting of exposed soils and rock outcrops or sandy surfaces

Table 3. Cohen's Kappa statistic nominal scale agreement (Landis and Koch 1977).

Kappa value	Interpretation
Below 0.00	Poor agreement
0.00–0.20	Slight agreement
0.21–0.40	Fair agreement
0.41–0.60	Moderate agreement
0.61–0.80	Substantial agreement
0.81–1.00	Almost perfect agreement

Table 4. ETCCDMI core climate indices.

Indices	Description		Units
TN90p	Warm nights	Percentage of days when TN > 90th percentile	Days
TX90p	Warm days	Percentage of days when TX > 90th percentile	Days
WSDI	Warm spell duration	Annual count of days with at least 6 consecutive days when TX >90th percentile	Days
CSDI	Cold spell duration indicator	Annual count of days with at least 6 consecutive days TN< 10th percentile	Days
Rx5days	Max 5 days precipitation amount	Monthly maximum consecutive 5-days precipitation	mm
R10	Number of heavy precipitation days	Annual count of days when PRCP> =10 mm	Days
R20	Number of very heavy precipitation days	Annual count of days when PRCP> =20 mm	Days
CDD	Consecutive dry days	Maximum number of consecutive days with RR< 1 mm	Days
CWD	Consecutive wet days	Maximum number of consecutive days with RR > 1 mm	Days
PRCPTOT	Annual total wet-day precipitation	Annual total PRCP in wet days (RR> =1 mm)	mm

Table 5. Climate types corresponding to the Aridity index defined by (UNEP 1993).

Aridity index (AI)	Climate classification
0.05 ≤ P/PE < 0.20	Arid
0.20 ≤ P/PE < 0.50	Semi-arid
0.50 ≤ P/PE < 0.65	Dry Sub-humid
0.65 ≤ P/PE < 0.80	Semi-humid
0.80 ≤ AI < 1.0	Humid
1.0 ≤ AI< 2.0	Very humid

Table A3. TMI limits with their corresponding Climate type (Thornthwaite, 1948).

Climate type	TMI	Climate type	TMI
A Perhumid	100 and above	C2 Moist Subhumid	0 to 20
B4 Humid	80 to 100	C1 Dry Subhumid	−20 to 0
B3 Humid	60 to 80	D Semiarid	−40 to −20
B2 Humid	40 to 60	E Arid	−60 to −40
B1 humid	20 to 40

Figure 3. Land-use and land cover map of Chingola district from 1972 to 2020.

Figure 4. Variation of annual precipitation and monthly maximum consecutive 5-days from 1983 to 2020.

Figure 5. Trend analysis of few climates change detection monitoring indices from 1983 to 2020.

Table 9. Summary of land use and land cover structure index and Comprehensive index.

Year	LULC types	Land-use intensity Index (LDI)	Single land use dynamic degree (SLUDI) (%)	Land use and cover rate ($A_i)$	Rate of change (ha/yr)	Comprehensive land use dynamic index (CLUDI)
1972–1992	Forest	−0.04	−7.7	−0.02	−1.9	0.154
	Residential areas	0.03	5.5	0.017	1.7	0.0935
	Mining areas	0.08	15.96	−0.06	6	0.9576
	Savannah woodlands	−0.12	−94.2	−0.0134	1.3	1.262
	Water bodies	0.09	−2.73	−0.015	−1.5	0.041
	Farmlands	−0.01	18.5	0.038	3.8	0.703
	Bare lands	−0.02	−4.62	−0.0011	−5.8	0.0051
CLUDI = 100$\sum {\mathit{SLUDI}}_{}$						322
1992–2001	Forest	−0.03	−5.88	−0.049	−4.9	0.289
	Residential areas	0.06	15.95	0.068	6.8	1.1
	Mining areas	−0.03	−6.72	−0.04	−3.8	0.255
	Savannah woodlands	−0.10	−21.63	−0.035	−3.5	0.757
	Water	0.10	−1.72	−0.03	−2.5	0.043
	Farmlands	−0.01	21.21	0.054	5.4	1.14
	Bare lands	0.01	2.52	0.01	1.0	0.0252
CLUDI = 100$\sum {\mathit{SLUDI}}_{}$						360
2001–2013	Forest	−0.02	−9.2	−0.048	−4.87	1.35
	Residential areas	0.09	37.5	0.0387	3.87	0.227
	Mining areas	0.01	36.7	0.0132	1.32	1.98
	Savannah woodlands	−0.11	−24.78	−0.043	−4.3	0.0942
	Water bodies	−0.06	−4.3	−0.0154	−1.54	1.067
	Farmlands	−0.01	−10.8	−0.0215	−2.2	0.21
	Bare lands	0.09	−59.2	−0.042	−4.2	1.31
CLUDI = 100$\sum {\mathit{SLUDI}}_{}$						623
2013–2020	Forest	−0.011	−4.83	−0.048	−4.87	0.232
	Residential areas	0.045	16.2	0.0387	3.87	0.627
	Mining areas	−0.014	2.73	0.0132	1.32	0.036
	Savannah woodlands	0.008	−23.73	−0.043	−4.3	1.021
	Water bodies	−0.013	−1.13	−0.0154	−1.54	0.0174
	Farmlands	−0.005	−12.81	−0.0215	−2.2	0.275
	Bare lands	−0.011	2.52	−0.042	−4.2	0.11
CLUDI = 100$\sum {\mathit{SLUDI}}_{}$						210

Table 6. Calculated area of the land cover of Chingola in 1972, 1992, 2001, 2013, and 2020.

Classes	1972	%	1992	%	2001	%	2013	%	2020	%
	Area (ha)		Area (ha)		Area (ha)		Area (ha)		Area (ha)
Forest	19,626	11.7	13,465	8.0	8653.8	5.2	4825	2.9	3050	1.8
Builtups	10,707	6.4	14,987	8.9	24,737	14.7	40,635	24.2	48,243	28.7
Mining area	5782.6	3.4	18,515	11.0	13,141	7.8	15,394	9.2	13,067	7.8
Savannah woodlands	84,095	50.1	64,268	38.3	46,878	27.9	27,896	16.6	29,283	17.4
Farmlands	12,881	7.7	27,663	16.5	44,883	26.8	34,685	20.7	32,585	19.4
Water bodies	8929.6	5.3	6675	4.0	5315.2	3.2	4415.7	2.6	3560	2.1
Barelands	25,797	15.4	22,283	13.3	24,172	14.4	39,904	23.8	38,086	22.7
TOTAL	167,818.2	100.0	167,856	100.0	167,780	100.0	167,754.7	100.0	167,874	100.0

Table 7. Land use/land cover change development intensity and annual growth rate from 1972 to 2020.

Classes	Change rate/year (1972–1992)	LDI Total	Change rate/year (1992–2001)	LDI Total	Change rate/year (2001–2013)	LDI Total	Change rate/year (2013–2020)	LDI Total	Change rate/year (1972–2020)	LDI total
Forest	−1.72	0.069	−3.97	0.12	−3.68	0.11	−5.25	0.058	−1.75	0.18
Residential areas	1.99	0.06	9.45	0.57	3.87	0.23	2.67	0.120	7.3	1.61
Mining Areas	22	1.76	−3.22	0.096	1.43	−0.04	−6.79	0.095	0.82	0.03
Savannah woodlands	−1.17	0.14	−3.0	0.3	−3.37	0.34	3.27	0.026	−0.98	0.32
Water bodies	−0.53	0.05	6.92	0.69	−1.89	−0.19	−0.86	0.011	−1.25	−0.15
Farmlands	−5.73	0.06	−2.26	0.023	−1.41	0.01	−2.76	0.014	3.18	−0.10
Bare land	−0.72	0.014	1.1	0.011	5.42	0.05	−4.23	0.047	0.18	0.01
TOTAL		2.15		1.81		0.52		0.37		1.90

Table A4. Land use and land cover change transitions between 1972 and 2020.

LULC 2020
	From	To	Barelands	Built-up areas	Farmlands	Forest	Mining areas	Savannah woodlands	Water bodies	Total area (1972)
LULC 1972	Barelands		13,060.7	3550.6	117.9	326.6	1508.4	6125.0	3853.7	28,543.0
	Built-up areas		821.6	7176.0	31.8	64.8	1306.9	1159.9	2010.3	12,571.2
	Farmlands		638.0	3146.5	26.1	18.7	778.8	773.0	1607.5	6988.5
	Forest		475.0	1124.3	1.7	586.4	142.3	3009.5	1248.8	6588.0
	Mining areas		366.9	1177.6	70.4	5.2	1733.9	655.6	467.9	4477.5
	Savannah woodlands		14,846.4	19,963.2	139.8	1603.8	4465.5	46,428.3	15,321.0	102,768.0
	Water bodies		2069.1	193.4	60.7	41.1	95.1	921.1	227.6	3608.0
	Total area (2020)		32,277.7	36,331.6	448.4	2646.6	10,030.9	59,072.3	24,736.8	165,544.4

Values are in hectares.

Accuracy assessment tables of land use/land cover classifications of Chingola district in 1972, 1992, 2001, 2013, and 2020, respectively, in Tables A5–A9.

Table A5. 1972.

	Forest	Built-up areas	Mine areas	Savannah woodlands	water	Farmlands	Bare lands	Total (user)	User's accuracy
Forest	43	0	0	0	0	0	0	43	100%
Built-up areas	0	35	4	0	0	0	0	39	89.7%
Mine areas	0	0	50	0	0	0	0	50	100%
Savannah woodlands	1	0	0	47	0	2	0	50	94%
Water	3	0	0	6	33	0	0	42	78.5%
Farmlands	1	0	0	0	2	38	0	41	90.47%
Barelands	0	0	0	5	0	1	36	42	85.7%
Total (Producer)	48	35	54	58	35	41	36	307	91.2%
Producer’s accuracy	89.6%	100%	92.5 %	81.03%	94.3%	92.7	100%	92.87%
Overall accuracy									91.85%
Kappa statistics									0.90

Table A6. 1992.

	Forest	Built-up areas	Mine areas	Savannah woodlands	Water	Farmlands	Barelands	Total users	User's accuracy
Forest	50	0	0	0	0	0	0	50	100%
Built-up areas	10	39	1	0	0	0	0	50	78%
Mine areas	0	0	50	0	0	0	0	50	100%
Savannah woodlands	0	0	0	49	0	1	0	50	98%
Water	0	0	3	0	47	0	0	50	94%
Farmlands	0	0	0	5	3	42	0	50	84%
Barelands	0	0	0	5	0	4	41	50	82%
Total (Producer)	60	39	54	59	50	47	41	350	90.86%
Producer’s accuracy	83.3%	100 %	92.59 %	83.1%	94%	89.4%	100%	91.77%
Overall accuracy									90.85%
Kappa statistics									0.89

Table A7. 2001.

	Forest	Built-up areas	Mine areas	Savannah woodlands	Water	Farmlands	Bare lands	Total users	User's accuracy
Forest	47	0	0	4	0	0	0	51	92.1%
Built-up areas	0	29	0	0	0	2	0	31	93.5%
Mine areas	0	0	34	0	0	0	0	34	100%
Savannah woodlands	0	0	0	33	0	1	0	34	97%
Water	0	0	3	0	47	0	0	50	94%
Farmlands	0	0	0	1	3	38	0	42	90.4%
Bare lands	0	0	0	5	0	2	61	68	89.7%
Total (Producer)	47	29	37	43	50	43	61	310	93.8%
Producer’s accuracy	100%	100 %	91.89 %	76.74%	94%	88.37%	100%	93%
Overall accuracy									93.2%
Kappa statistics									0.92

Table 8. Urban sprawl index (USI).

Classes	1972–1992	1992–2001	2001–2013	2013–2020	1972–2020
USI builtups	0.11	0.44	0.43	0.20	0.27
USI mining areas	0.16	−0.31	0.06	−0.06	0.05
USI Farmlands	0.37	0.76	−0.27	−0.05	0.14
USI Forest	−0.16	−0.21	−0.10	−0.045	−0.12
USI Savannah	−0.50	−0.78	−0.51	0.04	−0.40
USI Water bodies	−0.057	−0.061	−0.024	−0.022	−0.04
USI Barelands	−0.09	0.085	0.42	−0.05	0.09

Figure 6. Patterns of rainfall deficit and surplus observed in Chingola from 1983 to 2020.

Figure 7. Spatio-temporal variation of NDVI and NDWI in Chingola from 1972 to 2020.

Figure 8. Annual variation of NDVI and NDWI (Max, Mean, and Min) from 1972 to 2020.

Figure 9. Spatio-temporal variation of NDSI and NDMI in Chingola from 1972 to 2020.

Figure 10. Annual variation of NDSI and NDMI (Max, Mean and Min) from 1972 to 2020.

Table 10. Variation of environmental factors.

	1972	1992	2001	2013	2020
Average environmental indices
NDVI	0.18	0.17	−0.14	0.09	0.11
NDWI	0.11	0.02	−0.30	−0.17	−0.19
NDSI	−0.002	−0.43	−0.158	−0.189	−0.196
NDMI	−0.033	−0.43	−0.18	−0.19	−0.20

Table A1. Summary statistics of annual precipitation regression analysis.

Variable	Observations	Obs. with missing data	Obs. without missing data	Minimum	Maximum	Mean	Std. deviation
RR	38	0	38	53.8	137.453	97.64	17.54
The goodness of fit statistics (RR)
Observations	38	MSE	282.257
DF	36	RMSE	16.8
R²	0.108	MAPE	14.356
Adjusted R²	0.083	DW	1.798

Table A2. Summary statistics of RX5days.

Variable	Observations	Obs. with missing data	Obs. without missing data	Minimum	Maximum	Mean	Std. deviation
RX5days	38	0	38	20.1	52.76	37.	7.57
The goodness of fit statistics (RX5days)
Observations	38	MSE	52.91
DF	36	RMSE	7.27
R²	0.108	MAPE	16.1
Adjusted R²	0.078	DW	1.798

Figure A1. Area change intensity heatmap for land use and land cover classes between 1972 and 2020.

Figure A2. LULC areas change intensity analysis for 1972–2020.

Table A8. 2013.

	Forest	Built-up areas	Mine areas	Savannah woodlands	Water	Farmlands	Barelands	Total users	User's accuracy
Forest	40	0	0	3	0	7	0	50	80%
Built-up areas	0	38	0	4	0	2	0	44	86.36%
Mine areas	0	1	34	1	0	2	0	38	91.89 %
Savannah woodlands	0	0	1	53	0	0	0	54	75.7%
Water	0	0	1	1	36	0	0	38	92.3%
Farmlands	0	0	1	3	3	29	3	39	67.4%
Barelands	0	0	0	5	0	3	72	80	96 %
Total (Producer)	40	39	37	70	39	43	75	343	84.2%
Producer’s accuracy	100%	97.4 %	91.9 %	75.7%	92.3%	67.4%	96%	88.7%
Overall accuracy									88.04%
Kappa statistics									0.86

Table A9. 2020.

	Forest	Built-up areas	Mining areas	Savannah woodlands	Water	Farmlands	Barelands	Total (user)	User's accuracy
Forest	56	0		0	0	0	0	56	100%
Built-up areas	0	53	1	2	2	0	0	58	91.37
Mining areas	0	0	37	4	1	1	1	44	84.1%
Savannah woodlands	0	0	0	51	0	0	0	51	100%
Water	0	0	0	0	47	0	0	47	100%
Farmlands	1	0	0	1	5	56	3	66	84.84%
Bare lands	1	0	0	0	14	0	70	85	87.1%
Total (Producer)	58	53	38	58	69	57	74	407	92.5%
Producer’s accuracy	96.55%	100%	97.36	87.9%	68.1%	98.2%	94.6%	91.8%
Overall accuracy									90.9%
Kappa statistics									0.89

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Data availability statement

The data and materials that support the findings of this study are freely available from the corresponding author [J.M. Kourouma] and can be shared upon reasonable request.