Spatio-temporal prediction of climate and wildfire in Hugumbrda Grat-Kahsu forest, Tigray: priority for early warning

Figures & data

Figure 1. Map of study area.

Figure 2. Conceptual framework.

Table 1. List of global circulation models (GCMs) used for input.

Abbreviation	Full name
CCSM4	Community Climate System Model 4
CESM1-BGC	Community Earth System Model 1 – Biogeochemistry
GFDL-ESM2	Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model 2
inmcm4	Institute of Numerical Mathematics Coupled Model version 4
NorESM1-M	Norwegian Earth System Model 1 - Medium Resolution
BNU-ESM	Beijing Normal University Earth System Model
CSIRO-Mk3-6-0	Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Mark 3.6.0
HadGEM2-CC	Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2 - Coupled Carbon Cycle
IPSL-CM5A-LR	Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model version 5 A - Low Resolution
MPI-M-MRI-CGCM3	Max Planck Institute for Meteorology - Max Planck Institute Earth System Model Coupled Global Climate Model 3
CanESM2	Canadian Earth System Model 2
GFDL-ESM2M	Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model 2 - Modular
HadGEM2-ES	Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2 - Earth System
IPSL-CM5A-MR	Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model version 5 A - Medium Resolution
MPI-ESM-LR	Max Planck Institute Earth System Model - Low Resolution
ACCESS1-0	Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator version 1.0
bcc-csm1-1	Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1
ESM-MR	Earth System Model - Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
MIROC5	Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate version 5
MIROC-ESM	Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate Earth System Model

Table 2. KBDI fire risk classes.

KBDI	Risk levels
<99	Very low
100–199	Low
200–299	Moderate
300 − 399	High
400–599	Very high
≥600	Extreme

Figure 3. Mean precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature for the periods baseline (1980–2020), near (2021–2039), mid (2040–2069), and end (2070–2099) under RCP 4.5 and 8.5.

Figure 4. Mean average temperature map (A) baseline, (B) 2021–2099 under RCP 4.5, and (C) 2021–2099 under RCP 8.5.

Figure 5. Mean precipitation map (A) baseline (B) 2021–2099 RCP 4.5 (C) 2021–2099 RCP 8.5.

Figure 6. KBDI trend from 1980 to 2099.

Figure 7. Seasonal forest fire occurrence in baseline and future (A) baseline (B) 2021–2039 under RCP 4.5 (C) 2040–2069 under RCP 4.5, and (D) 2070–2099 under RCP 4.5.

Figure 8. Seasonal Forest fire occurrence in baseline and future (A) baseline, (B) 2021–2039 under RCP 8.5, (C) 2040–2069 under RCP 8.5, and (D) 2070–2099 under RCP 8.5.

Figure 9. Current and future spatial and temporal variation of climate change induced forest fire under RCP 4.5 (A) baseline, (B) 2021–2039, (C) 2040–2069, and (D) 2070–2099.

Figure 10. Current and future spatial and temporal variation of climate change induced forest fire under RCP 8.5 (A) baseline, (B) 2021–2039, (C) 2040–2069, and (D) 2070–2099.