Rainfall forecasting in arid regions in response to climate change using ARIMA and remote sensing

Figures & data

Figure 1. Location map of Syria.

Figure 2. Annual rainfall and location of rainfall stations in Syria.

Figure 3. Location and annual rainfall at land stations in Tartous governorate.

Table 1. Data of land stations in Tartous Governorate, Syria.

St. No.	St. Name	Latitude	Longitude	Annual rainfall (mm)
58	Ash Shaykh Badr	345926.72 N	360452.27 E	1210
59	As Sifsafeh	344358.03 N	360254.96 E	1007
60	Al Qadmus	350603.72 N	360940.78 E	1181
61	Baniyas	351108.77 N	355711.73 E	813
63	Safita	344909.33 N	360708.84 E	1062
65	Mashta Al Hilu	345242.18 N	361517.69 E	1114

Figure 4. Flow chart of methodology used for rainfall forecasting using ARIMA models.

Figure 5. Satellite image for precipitation in January 2020 in Syria.

Figure 6. Correlation between RS data and land station data at ash Shaykh Badr station (1991–2009).

Table 2. Correlation equation and R² at main stations in Tartous Governorate, Syria.

St. No.	St. Name	Correlation equation	R^2
58	Ash Shaykh Badr	y = 2.1517x + 4.0266	0.7953
59	As Sifsafeh	y = 2.0311x − 0.5503	0.8195
60	Al Qadmus	y = 2.0036x + 4.8217	0.8541
61	Baniyas	y = 1.4525x + 0.1841	0.7547
63	Safita	y = 1.9796x + 3.7788	0.8084
65	Mashta Al Hilu	y = 2.2426x + 4.3891	0.7904

Figure 7. Forecast of monthly precipitation at Ash Shaykh Badr station (2021–2022).

Figure 8. Forecast and validation of rainfall at Ash Shaykh Badr station.

Figure 9. Forecast and validation of rainfall at as Sifsafeh station.

Figure 10. Forecast and validation of rainfall at Al-Qadmus station.

Figure 11. Forecast and validation of rainfall at baniyas station.

Figure 12. Forecast and validation of rainfall at Safita station.

Figure 13. Forecast and validation of rainfall at Mashta Al Hilu station.

Figure 14. Spatial distribution of rainfall in Tartous governate (October 2021–September 2022).

Figure 15. Rainfall trends at the six major stations in Tartous for the period (1983–2022).