Predicting potential areas at risk of the Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Jakarta, Indonesia—analyzing the accuracy of predictive hot spot analysis in the absence of small geographical area data

Figures & data

Figure 1. The hot spot analysis algorithm by the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic.

Figure 2. A week-incidence graph illustrating the performance of the SVR model over 20 weeks in 2017. The blue graph represents the number of incidents obtained by SVR, while the orange graph denotes the actual number of incidents.

Table 1. Results of the SVR model versus the actual data in the third week of September 2017.

Municipality	Prediction	Actual Data
West Jakarta	9.816595	9
East Jakarta	20.930816	26
North Jakarta	8.253456	11
South Jakarta	14.664965	15
Central Jakarta	8.600496	10

Table 2. Performance of SAE models for estimating DHF incidence measured by mean squared error (MSE) and mean absolute error (MAE).

Model	MSE	MAE
Proportion of area	3.55	1.38
Proportion of population	2.14	1.06
Linear regression	2.07	1.05
Decision tree	1.59	0.95
K-nearest neighbors	3.90	1.31
Random forest	1.10	0.71
Extra tree regressor	1.56	0.94

Table 3. Actual and estimated DHF incidence by the random forest model compared side by side. The estimated values are rounded to the nearest integer.

District	Actual DHF incidence	Estimated DHF incidence
Cakung	3	3
Cempaka Putih	1	1
Cengkareng	1	2
Cilandak	0	1
Cilincing	4	6
Cipayung	2	2
Ciracas	2	3
Duren Sawit	3	3
Gambir	0	0
Grogol Petamburan	1	1
Jagakarsa	4	3
Jatinegara	2	2
Johar Baru	0	1
Kalideres	0	2
Kebayoran Baru	1	2
Kebayoran Lama	4	3
Kebon Jeruk	2	1
Kelapa Gading	2	3
Kemayoran	4	2
Kembangan	1	1
Koja	6	4
Kramat Jati	1	2
Makasar	2	2
Mampang Prapatan	2	2
Matraman	2	2
Menteng	0	1
Pademangan	3	1
Palmerah	1	1
Pancoran	1	2
Pasar Minggu	4	3
Pasar Rebo	2	2
Penjaringan	0	2
Pesanggrahan	1	1
Pulo Gadung	5	4
Sawah Besar	0	1
Senen	0	1
Setiabudi	1	1
Taman Sari	0	0
Tambora	6	5
Tanah Abang	5	2
Tanjong Priok	5	5
Tebet	2	2

Figure 3. Hot spot map constructed from the DHF incidence estimation (top) and from the actual data (bottom).