Public health impact of COVID-19 in French ambulatory patients with at least one risk factor for severe disease

Figures & data

Figure 1. Model structure.

Table 1. Model inputs

	Value for each age group				Source
	<50 years	51-60 years	61-80 years	>80 years
Baseline characteristics
Age group (%)	25.78	17.09	35.46	21.67	TUA
Male (%)	44.00	50.30	55.70	47.10	TUA
Mean age at the start of the simulation (years)	36.70	55.10	70.20	86.90	TUA
Clinical outcomes in the acute phase (decision tree)
Hospitalisation probability (%)	11.23	15.15	26.63	49.20	TUA
Type of hospitalisation (%)
Standard or no oxygen	84.34	81.98	84.01	97.16	PMSI
Non-invasive ventilation	2.88	3.13	2.72	1.13
Mechanical ventilation	12.78	14.90	13.27	1.71
Mortality (%)
Standard or no oxygen	1.28	2.59	11.79	29.71	PMSI
Non-invasive ventilation	2.40	3.46	22.30	64.40
Mechanical ventilation	11.49	19.09	42.62	69.03
Long term phase (Markov model) – per cycle
After an infection treated in outpatient settings (%)
No long COVID	70.00	65.00	60.00	50.00	Based on expert opinion
Long COVID in outpatient settings	25.00	25.00	30.00	30.00
Long/prolonged COVID in hospital settings	5.00	10.00	10.00	20.00	Calculation
After an infection treated in hospital (%)
No long COVID	60.00	50.00	40.00	35.00	Based on expert opinion
Long COVID in outpatient settings	22.81	28.37	35.71	47.87	Calculation
Long/prolonged COVID in hospital settings	17.19	21.63	24.29	17.13	PMSI
Costs
Hospitalisation in acute phase (mean, €)
Standard or no oxygen	4 948	5 036	5 118	4 932	PMSI
Non-invasive ventilation	9 808	10 995	10 763	8 181
Mechanical ventilation	14 245	14 848	15 571	12 373
Long/prolonged COVID treated in hospital (mean, €)	18 609	21 247	21 386	7 317	PMSI
Long/prolonged COVID treated in outpatient settings (mean, €)	902.81				Calculated based on expert opinion (see supplemental appendix)

Table 2. Model results for the base case and scenarios

	Base case	SCENARIO “AGE”				SCENARIO “OMICRON”	SCENARIO “NOT-VAC-CINATED”	SCENARIO “TREATMENTS”			SCENARIO “GENERAL POPU-LATION”	SCENARIO “CARE IMPRO-VEMENT”
		<50	51-60	61-80	>80			RR=0.1	RR=0.3	RR=0.5
Life duration in acute phase*
Life duration	29.7d	30.4d	30.3d	29.6d	27.6d	30.3d	28.9d	30.4d	30.2d	30.0d	30.3d	29.9d
Lost due to COVID-19	0.7d	0.1d	0.1d	0.8d	2.9d	0.2d	1.6d	0.1d	0.2d	0.4d	0.1d	0.6d
Total life duration
Life duration	1y 11m 19.1d	2y 0m 18.8d	2y 0m 12.4d	1y 11m 10.3d	1y 7m 14.5d 3m	2y 0m 9.0d	1y 10m 15.7d	2y 0m 13.1d	2y 0m 7.6d	2y 0m 2.2d	2y 0m 12.2d	1y 11m 24.6d
Lost due to COVID-19	27.1d	2.2d	5.7d	1m 1d	12.4d	6.8d	2m	2.7d	8.1d	13.6d	3.6d	21.7d
Number of hospitalisations per 1000 patients**
Acute phase	256	112	151	266	492	128	384	26	77	128	102	256
Total	382	175	267	394	652	140	512	37	111	187	217	383
Number of hospital deaths per 1000 patients	37	3	8	43	151	9	83	4	11	18	5	29
Number of long/prolonged COVID forms per 1000 patients
Hospitalised	126	63	116	128	160	12	128	11	34	59	115	127
Total	407	310	369	427	475	32	402	39	118	199	401	411
Costs (€) per patient
Acute phase	1 578	705	1 013	1 773	2 507	789	2 368	568	884	1 199	470	1 578
Long/prolonged COVID forms	2 702	2 014	3 313	2 879	1 292	248	2 737	243	747	1 275	1 993	2 733
Total	4 280	2 718	4 326	4 652	3 799	1 038	5 105	811	1 631	2 475	2 463	4 311

* The maximum duration of the acute phase is 365.25/12 ≈ 30.4 days

** A patient can have 2 hospitalisations (one during the acute phase and on for long/prolonged form of COVID)