Spectral fatigue analyses comparison study: Suez Canal vs. Cape of Good Hope Arab Academy for Science, Technologies and Maritime Transport (AASTMT)

Figures & data

Figure 1. Yearly average of bunker market prices 2007–2017.

Table 1. Cost comparison as per route option for the Aframax tanker.

	Gulf – EU						Gulf – USA
	Fees	Days	Fuel $	Cons/D	Fuel ∑	∑	Fees	Days	Fuel $	Cons/D	Fuel ∑	∑
Suez Route	235,000	17.9	300	35	187,688	422,688	235,000	23	300	35	241,500	476,500
Cape Route	0	31.04	300	35	325,920	325,920	0	32.8	300	35	343,875	343,875
Savings						−96,768						−132,625

Table 2. Steaming time on assumed 4 voyages.

Voyage No.	Sailing from/to ‘Ports of call/destination’ (via)	Distance	Estimated sailing time on 15 kt. in days
Voyage 1	Gulf Region/Europe: ‘Ras Tanura/Rotterdam’ (Suez)	6436 mls	17 days 21 hrs
Voyage 2	Gulf Region/Europe: ‘Ras Tanura/Rotterdam’ (Cape)	11,169 mls	31 days 01 hrs
Voyage 3	Gulf Region/USA: ‘Ras Tanura/New York & New Jersy’ (Suez)	8281 mls	23 days
Voyage 4	Gulf Region/USA: ‘Ras Tanura/New York & New Jersy’ (Cape)	11,794 mls	32 days 18 hrs

Source: Sea Distances (2018).

Figure 2. Time Charter rates for the Aframax tanker.

Table 3. Reduction in time charter rates for all types of tankers (2016–2017).

(Source) Topic		2016		2017
Time charter rates for tankers	Basis	Nov.	Dec.	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May	Jun.	Jul.	Av. of the last 12 month	% change over the previous year
VLCC (modern)	12 months T/C. 1000 USD / day	32.5	30.0	27.5	27.5	27.0	27.5	27.5	27.5	27.5	28	−19.1
Suezmax (modern)		22.5	22.0	22.0	21.5	19.5	19.0	19.0	17.5	17.0	20	−33.3
Aframax (modern)		17.3	18.5	17.3	17.3	16.0	15.8	15.5	15.5	15.0	17	−28.6
PRODUCT 80,000 dwt		14.5	14.0	14.0	14.0	13.8	14.0	14.0	13.5	13.5	14	−25.0

Source: ISL (2017).

Table 4. Main particulars of the selected Aframax tanker.

Main characteristics of the Aframax tanker
Length between perpendiculars Lpp		238.0 m
Moulded breadth B		43.0 m
Moulded depth D		21.0 m
Scantling draft T		14.3 m
Deadweight DWT		97,000 Mt
Midship Section Modulus Z		33.164 m^3
Full load condition		Ballast load condition
Deadweight	97,000 Mt	Deadweight	37,728.7 Mt
Mean draft at Marks	13.47 m	Mean draft at Marks	7.17 m

Source: Abdelkader (2012) and Eldaay (2017).

Figure 3. Midship section of the selected Aframax tanker with the selected FB in circle.

Figure 4. Tanker routing options and GWS sailing areas: Gulf region to/from EU and USA.

Figure 5. A flow chart diagram for the adopted route-specific spectral fatigue damage assessment approach.

Table 5. Sample of resultant combined wave scatter diagrams marginal probability accumulation: Gulf Region to Europe using Suez Canal route.

∑	112.10	225.90	237.91	182.92	133.49	97.20	75.76	61.47	27.25	8.67	1	Per 1000 obs.
14.5							0.33	0.417	0.42			1.17
13.5								0.5	0.5			1
12.5							0.33	0.67	0.33			1.33
11.5					1		0.33	0.56	0.33			2.22
10.5				0.5	0.75	0.5	0.83	1	1			4.58
9.5			0.5	0.72	0.67	0.78	1.33	1	1			5.99
8.5			0.27	0.72	0.77	1.21	2	1.67	1.33	1		8.95
7.5			0.81	1.22	1.16	1.88	3	3	1.67	1		13.72
6.5		0.667	1.19	1.92	2.38	3.43	5.75	5	2.33	1		23.66
5.5		1	2.71	3.77	4.78	6.63	9	9	3.67	1.33		41.90
4.5	1	2.57	6.22	8.3	10.1	12	11.86	10.5	5	1.67	1	70.22
3.5	1.5	9.14	16.1	20.4	22	22	17.57	13	5	1.67		128.38
2.5	5.43	32.71	44.3	45	38.6	26.9	14.33	10.5	3.67	1		222.44
1.5	24.29	78	94.3	70	41.7	19.1	7.75	4.67	1			340.80
0.5	79.88	101.8	71.5	30.4	9.6	2.78	1.33					297.29
$\mathit{H}\mathit{s}/\mathit{T}\mathit{z}$	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	10.5	11.5	12.5	13.5	∑

Figure 6. Tanker fatigue damage/Gulf Region to Europe voyages.

Figure 7. Tanker fatigue damage/Gulf Region to US voyages.

Table 6. Results of fatigue damage along the 4 voyages.

		Fatigue damage in load condition			Fatigue life (years)
Voyage number	Destination/port of call	Ballast	Full load	Total fatigue damage	Air	Corrosive
V1	Gulf Region / Europe via Suez Canal	0.708	1.275	0.857	29.662	29.170
				Average	29.416
V2	Gulf Region / Europe via Cape of Good Hope.	0.797	1.448	0.970	26.211	25.771
				Average	25.991
Fatigue life Difference (year)					(+) 3.671
V3	Gulf Region / USA via Suez Canal	0.645	1.064	0.737	34.419	33.929
				Average	34.174
V4	Gulf Region / USA via Cape of Good Hope	0.673	1.256	0.834	30.501	29.968
				Average	30.234
Fatigue life Difference (year)					(+) 3.940

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