Transmissibility and mortality trends of COVID-19 epidemic in Egypt

Figures & data

Figure 1. Daily cumulative number of COVID 19 cases in Egypt

Table 1. Public health and social measures (PHSMs) implemented in Egypt at early phase of COVID 19 epidemic

Date	Measure	Number of cumulative cases at time of intervention
15/03/2020	Schools and Universities closure Suspending sport activities	126
16/03/2020	Reducing the number of employees and eliminating the fingerprint	166
17/03/2020	Stopping performances in theaters and cinema Stopping the work of environmental reserves	196
19/03/2020	International air flight ban	256
21/03/2020	Stopping prayers, stores, and cafes from 7.00 pm to 6.00 am. Disinfection of airports and some governmental authorities	294
23/03/2020	Closure of museums and archeological sites	366
25/03/2020	Curfew	456

Figure 2. Model fitting for the exponential growth across data subsets

Table 2. R₀ in the early phase of COVID 19 epidemic in Egypt by the two methods of estimation

The simple exponential growth method			TD method
Doubling Time (95% CI)	Infectious duration		SI (Mean ± SD)
	8 days	10 days	5.8 ± 2.6	7.5 ± 3.4
	R0 (LL-UL)	R0 (LL-UL)	R0 (95%CrI)	R0 (95%CrI)
4.39 (4.02–4.84)	2.26 (2.15–2.38)	2.58 (2.43–2.72)	2.34 (2.05–2.64)	3.01 (2.64–3.40)

Figure 3. Daily number of new confirmed COVID 19 cases and Daily R_e (t) in Egypt. In method 1 and 2, two values of mean ± SD for SI were assumed (5.8 ± 2.6 and 7.5 ± 3.4, respectively)

Figure 4. Daily cumulative deaths and case fatality rate of COVID 19 in Egypt