Climate change and agricultural trade in central Asia: evidence from Kazakhstan

Figures & data

Figure 1. Precipitation and wheat exports.

Figure 2. Temperature and wheat exports.

Table 1. Variables definition.

Variable	Definition
Precipitation	Total precipitation during major crop season (May-August)(mm)
Temperature	Land surface temperature (°C)
Wheat trade	Exports and imports of wheat (1000 MT), log
Rice trade	Exports and imports of rice (1000 MT), log
Maize trade	Exports and imports of maize (1000 MT), log
GDP of Kazakhstan	Constant 2010 US$, log
GDP of trade partners	Constant 2010 US$, log
Land of Kazakhstan	Land under cereal production (hectares), log
Land of trade partners	Land under cereal production (hectares), log
Distance	Distance between two capitals (kilometer), log
Common language	Trading partners share a common language, dummy
Contiguous border	Trading partners share a common border, dummy

Table 2. Descriptive statistics.

Variable	Mean	SD	Min	Max
Precipitation	117.155	24.809	80.980	170.264
Temperature	23.106	0.718	21.991	24.332
Wheat export	1.515	3.761	0	14.340
Wheat import	0.108	0.891	0	14.720
Rice export	0.263	1.404	0	11.080
Rice import	0.261	1.185	0	10.430
Maize export	0.113	0.932	0	10.460
Maize import	0.138	0.764	0	9.641
GDP of Kazakhstan	25.630	0.294	25.050	26.000
GDP of trade partners	24.500	2.179	18.620	30.480
Land of Kazakhstan	16.501	0.059	16.383	16.623
Land of trade partners	13.337	2.582	3.332	18.473
Distance	8.693	0.586	6.857	9.7160
Common language	0.028	0.166	0	1
Contiguous border	0.023	0.149	0	1

Table 3. The effect of climate change on cereal exports.

Variables	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
	Wheat	Wheat	Rice	Rice	Maize	Maize
Precipitation	0.005***	0.007***	0.004*	0.005**	0.000	−0.001
	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.003)
Temperature	0.120***	0.219***	0.052	0.128	−0.156	−0.237
	(0.030)	(0.033)	(0.072)	(0.079)	(0.110)	(0.131)
GDP_Kaz	−0.891***	−1.296***	−0.155	−0.443	−2.362***	−2.106***
	(0.071)	(0.100)	(0.229)	(0.281)	(0.480)	(0.597)
GDP_Par	0.514***	0.503***	1.625***	1.669***	2.407***	2.471***
	(0.071)	(0.077)	(0.225)	(0.270)	(0.481)	(0.504)
Distance	−2.895***	−2.980***	−10.644***	−11.212***	−21.483***	−20.489***
	(0.297)	(0.319)	(1.745)	(1.839)	(5.061)	(4.477)
Land_Kaz		2.450***		1.969**		−1.816
		(0.392)		(0.895)		(1.529)
Land_Par		0.043		0.011		−0.354
		(0.072)		(0.272)		(0.393)
Language		0.278		0.661		−2.692
		(1.134)		(1.931)		(3.280)
Border		−1.085		−3.053		0.944
		(1.068)		(2.043)		(2.092)
Constant	30.815***	−1.234	45.878***	22.247	166.380***	187.464***
	(2.869)	(5.988)	(14.098)	(19.154)	(38.517)	(37.888)
Country	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Observations	2627	2627	2627	2627	2627	2627

Table 4. The effect of climate change on cereal imports.

Variables	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
	Wheat	Wheat	Rice	Rice	Maize	Maize
Precipitation	−0.016***	−0.017***	0.001	0.002	0.007***	0.006**
	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.003)
Temperature	−0.398***	−0.494***	−0.057	0.016	0.151	0.091
	(0.114)	(0.131)	(0.071)	(0.080)	(0.100)	(0.111)
GDP_Kaz	−0.107	0.383	−0.374**	−0.474**	1.016***	1.379***
	(0.233)	(0.312)	(0.150)	(0.217)	(0.217)	(0.274)
GDP_Par	0.896***	0.653***	0.432***	0.187	0.822***	0.491**
	(0.211)	(0.220)	(0.103)	(0.120)	(0.209)	(0.242)
Distance	−2.639***	−2.008***	−1.586***	−1.323***	−2.156***	−1.589**
	(0.633)	(0.709)	(0.366)	(0.355)	(0.559)	(0.642)
Land_Kaz		−2.336		1.722*		−1.618
		(1.429)		(0.907)		(1.313)
Land_Par		0.384*		0.395***		0.617**
		(0.215)		(0.124)		(0.275)
Language		3.173**		0.137		3.958
		(1.574)		(1.801)		(4.286)
Border		−0.382		0.691		−3.184
		(1.672)		(1.632)		(3.905)
Constant	9.836	33.122	11.401**	−18.101	−35.327***	−21.831
	(7.149)	(21.069)	(4.610)	(13.058)	(6.658)	(20.328)
Country	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Observations	2627	2627	2627	2627	2627	2627

Table 5. Robustness check of cereal exports.

Variables	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
	Wheat	Wheat	Rice	Rice	Maize	Maize
Precipitation	0.008***	0.008***	0.004**	0.005**	0.000	−0.001
	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.003)
Temperature	0.098***	0.095***	0.041	0.112	−0.157	−0.318**
	(0.029)	(0.036)	(0.072)	(0.089)	(0.110)	(0.142)
GDP_Kaz	1.935***	2.106***	1.007	−0.050	−2.095**	−0.165
	(0.286)	(0.404)	(0.712)	(1.053)	(0.974)	(1.433)
GDP_Par	0.567***	0.551***	1.677***	1.682***	2.479***	2.765***
	(0.073)	(0.079)	(0.233)	(0.273)	(0.537)	(0.557)
Distance	−2.926***	−3.012***	−10.916***	−11.274***	−21.948***	−22.219***
	(0.296)	(0.319)	(1.800)	(1.855)	(5.358)	(4.868)
Land_Kaz		−0.127		1.653		−3.473*
		(0.493)		(1.212)		(1.895)
Land_Par		0.044		0.008		−0.433
		(0.073)		(0.272)		(0.416)
Language		0.267		0.649		−3.252
		(1.139)		(1.938)		(3.428)
Border		−1.116		−3.086		0.983
		(1.073)		(2.054)		(2.166)
Constant	313.135***	328.898***	156.370**	59.922	202.355*	412.183***
	(27.768)	(38.357)	(65.451)	(99.059)	(120.713)	(156.132)
Country	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Year	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Observations	2627	2627	2627	2627	2627	2627

Table 6. Robustness check of cereal imports.

Variables	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
	Wheat	Wheat	Rice	Rice	Maize	Maize
Precipitation	−0.018***	−0.018***	0.002	0.002	0.005*	0.006**
	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.003)
Temperature	−0.380***	−0.397***	−0.069	−0.048	0.199*	0.336***
	(0.116)	(0.142)	(0.071)	(0.087)	(0.103)	(0.128)
GDP_Kaz	−2.558***	−2.106	1.379**	1.222	−2.463***	−4.330***
	(0.990)	(1.443)	(0.672)	(0.969)	(0.946)	(1.477)
GDP_Par	0.916***	0.668***	0.451***	0.198	0.827***	0.490**
	(0.213)	(0.221)	(0.104)	(0.121)	(0.209)	(0.241)
Distance	−2.671***	−2.017***	−1.573***	−1.321***	−2.163***	−1.589**
	(0.641)	(0.710)	(0.363)	(0.354)	(0.560)	(0.640)
Land_Kaz		−0.369		0.426		3.264*
		(1.810)		(1.159)		(1.803)
Land_Par		0.370*		0.390***		0.613**
		(0.213)		(0.124)		(0.273)
Language		3.148**		0.150		3.942
		(1.574)		(1.804)		(4.275)
Border		−0.375		0.678		−3.176
		(1.671)		(1.634)		(3.894)
Constant	−220.065**	−199.350	181.630***	143.811	−345.085***	−548.137***
	(90.596)	(133.651)	(63.694)	(90.976)	(82.837)	(136.303)
Country	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Year	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Observations	2627	2627	2627	2627	2627	2627