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Abstract
The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia seem likely to become the first Arab states to develop fully functioning civilian nuclear programmes. Their motivations stem from considerations of prestige and identity, energy concerns, and as an answer to the threat emanating from Iran. This article considers their particular motivations, aims, and obstacles, and the potential, or lack thereof, for a shift from a civilian to a military programme. Although Iran's nuclear pursuit is probably the primary impetus, it is not the only one, and any conclusion to the Iranian question is not likely to reverse such endeavours.
Notes
1 IAEA, “IAEA Hosts Meeting to Support Nations Considering Nuclear Power Programmes”, 4 Feb. 2011.
2 The Final Communiqué of the 27th GCC annual meeting stated that “The Supreme Council ordered the undertaking of a joint GCC study to evolve a joint program in the field of nuclear technology for peaceful purposes in accordance with international standards and regulations”, The Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf: Secretariat General, The Closing Statement of the Twenty-Seventh Session of the Supreme Council of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC), Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, 9–10 Dec. 2006.
3 Lewis, “A Middle East Free of Nuclear Weapons: Possible, Probable or Pipe-Dream”, International Affairs 89.2 (2013), p. 435; Fuhrman “Spreading Temptation: Proliferation and Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation Agreements”, International Security 34.1 (2009), pp. 12–3.
4 Fuhrman, “Spreading Temptation”, pp. 12–3.
5 Sagan, “Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons: Three Models in Search of a Bomb”, International Security 21.3 (1996–7), pp. 55, 73–6.
6 Legum (ed.), Middle East Contemporary Survey, vol. 2: 1977–78 (1979), p. 414.
7 See M.S. Aljohani and A.F. Abdul-Fattah, “Siting of Nuclear Desalination Plants in Saudi Arabia: A Seismic Study”, International Journal of Nuclear Desalination 1.4 (2005).
8 According to Mohammed Khilewi, a Saudi diplomat who worked on non-proliferation issues at the Saudi mission to the United Nations in New York, the Saudis were motivated to start a weapons program soon after the 1973 Arab-Israeli war. Reportedly, the Saudis hoped that by building a nuclear weapon they could match Israeli capabilities and stave off potential aggression from Israel. For more, see: Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), “Saudi Arabia Country Profile”, Apr. 2015.
9 Esfandiary et al., “Obstacles for the Gulf States”, Arms Control Association, 16 Sept. 2011.
10 UN General Assembly, “Resolution 3263: Establishment of a Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone in the Region of the Middle East”, 2309th plenary meeting, 9 Dec. 1974.
11 Solomon, “Israel, Arab States Attended Meeting on Nuclear Disarmament”, Wall Street Journal, 10 Mar. 2014.
12 Anon., “GCC Offers to Provide Uranium to Tehran”, Arab News, 2 Nov. 2007.
13 See GCC, “The Final Communiqué of the 29th Session of the Supreme Council of the Arab Gulf Cooperation Council”, The Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf, Muscat, the Sultanate of Oman, 29–30 Dec. 2008; also GCC, “The Closing Statement of the Thirtieth Session of the Supreme Council of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC)”, The Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf: Secretariat General, State of Kuwait, 14–15 Dec. 2009.
14 Al Saud, “A Political Plan for a Weapons of Mass Destruction-Free Zone (WMDFZ) in the Middle East”, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University, July 2013, p. 5.
15 The GCC has been working to ensure that in the case of a nuclear or radiological disaster, Member States are able to provide an effective emergency response in a coordinated manner. In this regard, “the GCC is developing a Regional Radiological and Nuclear Emergency Preparedness and Response Plan, which will be executed under the responsibility of the GCC Emergency Management Center located in Kuwait, the organization responsible for the preparedness and response to radiological and nuclear events in the region”. For details, see: IAEA, “Moving Towards a Regional Emergency Response Plan in the Gulf”, 14 Apr. 2014.
16 Integrated air and missile defence, for example, is probably the one mission area in which the Gulf states have demonstrated the strongest commitment. However, US-led efforts in this area have been stalled by intra-GCC rivalries, despite the threat posed by Iran's growing ballistic missile capabilities.
17 World Nuclear Association, “Nuclear Power in the United Arab Emirates”, 15 Sept. 2014.
18 Luomi, “The Economic and Prestige Aspects of Abu Dhabi's Nuclear Program”, in The Nuclear Question in the Middle East, ed. Kamrava (2012), p. 128.
19 US Govt, Energy Information Administration (EIA), “United Arab Emirates: Overview”, 5 Dec. 2013.
20 Blanchard, “The UAE Nuclear Program and Proposed US Nuclear Cooperation”, Congressional Research Service, 20 Dec. 2010, pp. 5–7.
21 Grossman, “US Nuclear Marketers Visited Saudi Arabia, As Trade Talks Under Way”, Global Security Newswire, 1 Feb. 2013.
22 This came into effect in December 2010.
23 IAEA, “IAEA Reviews Progress of UAE Nuclear Power Program”, IAEA News Center, 24 Jan. 2011.
24 IAEA, “IAEA Concludes Peer Review of UAE's Regulatory Framework”, IAEA Press Releases, 14 Dec. 2011.
25 World Nuclear Association, “Nuclear Power in the United Arab Emirates”, Mar. 2015.
26 Mustafa, “Abu Dhabi's Nuclear Power Vision Gets Seoul”, The National (UAE), 21 Nov. 2012.
27 UAE Federal Authority for Nuclear Regulation, “FANR Asks ENEC for ‘Fukushima Lessons’ Assessment by End 2011”, 7 July 2011.
28 WAM, “ENEC Submits Report on Nuke Safety”, Khaleej Times, 3 Jan. 2012.
29 Sang-Hun, “Scandal in South Korea over Nuclear Revelations”, New York Times, 3 Aug. 2013.
30 Perkovich, “Nuclear Developments in the GCC: Risks and Trends”, Gulf Yearbook: 2007–2008 (2008), p. 235.
31 Luomi, “The Economic and Prestige Aspects”, p. 147.
32 This large population of Iranian expatriates is a product of long-standing UAE-Iran commercial ties; many Iranian firms and individuals (primarily in the import–export business) operate from the UAE, taking advantage of its drive to position itself as a global trading and financial hub. For more details, see: Kenneth Katzman, “The United Arab Emirates (UAE): Issues for US Policy”, Congressional Research Service, 15 May 2014.
33 Lippman, “Nuclear Weapons and Saudi Strategy”, Policy Brief 5, The Middle East Institute (2008), pp. 1–9.
34 US Energy Information Administration (EIA), “Saudi Arabia: Overview”, 10 Sept. 2014.
35 Humaidan, “16 Saudi Nuclear Reactors to Cost $300 Billion”, Arab News, 1 June. 2011.
36 Bakr, “Saudi Has No Plans to Give up Right to Enrich Uranium”, Reuters, 26 Jan, 2011.
37 Anon., “Gulf States Announce Nuclear Plan”, BBC News, 10 Dec. 2006.
38 US Govt, Dept. of State, “US-Saudi Arabia Memorandum of Understanding on Nuclear Energy Cooperation”, 16 May 2008.
39 Fineren, “Nuclear Saudi Arabia a Lifeline for the Atomic Energy Industry”, Reuters, 23 Apr. 2013.
40 The Kingdom signed two agreements with China on the issue, the latter in August 2014, according to which, the state-owned Chinese National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) and K.A.CARE agreed to cooperate in developing and producing nuclear and renewable energy to meet Saudi domestic demand. See: Youssef, “Saudi Arabia, China Sign Nuclear and Renewable Energy Agreement”, Al-Sharq al-Awsat, 10 Aug. 2014.
41 Fineren, “Nuclear Saudi Arabia a Lifeline for the Atomic Energy Industry”, Reuters, 23 Apr. 2013.
42 Grossman, “Q&A: Envoy Says Saudi Nuclear Pact “Would Not” Lead to Weapons”, National Journal, 29 July 2013.
43 Guzansky, “The Saudi Nuclear Genie is Out”, The Washington Quarterly 38.1 (2015), pp. 93–106.
44 Solomon, “Saudi Suggests ‘Squeezing’ Iran”, Wall Street Journal, 22 June 2011.
45 Anon., “Regional Ban Needed to Prevent Mideast Nuke Buildup: Saudi Prince”, Global Security Newswire, 26 Jan. 2012.
46 Black and Tisdall, “Saudi Arabia Urges US Attack on Iran to Stop Nuclear Program”, The Guardian, 28 Nov. 2010.
47 Edelman et al., “The Dangers of a Nuclear Iran”, Foreign Affairs 90.1 (Jan.–Feb. 2011) pp. 66–81.
48 Al Saud, “A Political Plan for a Weapons of Mass Destruction-Free Zone (WMDFZ) in the Middle East”, July 2013.
49 O'Connor, “Saudi Ballistic Missile Site Revealed”, Jane's Defence Weekly, 10 July 2013.
50Fuhrman, “Spreading Temptation”, pp. 12–3.
51 Sokolski, Nuclear Power's Global Expansion: Weighing its Costs and Risks (2010).
52 See Cordesman, Saudi Arabia: National Security in a Troubled Region (2009); Edelman et al., “The Dangers of a Nuclear Iran” Foreign Affairs, 90.1 (Jan.–Feb. 2011); Kahl et al., “Atomic Kingdom: If Iran Builds the Bomb, Will Saudi Arabia be Next?”, Feb. 2013; Kadhim, “The Future of Nuclear Weapons in the Middle East”, Nonproliferation Review 13.3 (2006); Russell, “Nuclear Reductions and Middle East Stability: Assessing the Impact of a Smaller US Nuclear Arsenal”, Nonproliferation Review, 20.2 (2013); Guzansky, “The Saudi Nuclear Genie is Out”, The Washington Quarterly 38.1 (2015).
53 Bowman, “Chain Reaction: Avoiding a Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East”, Report to the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Feb. 2008, p. ix.
54 Moltz, “Regional Perspectives on Low Nuclear Numbers: An Overview”, Nonproliferation Review 20.2 (2013), p. 199.
55 Kinninmont, “The GCC in 2020: Resources for the Future” (2010), p. 4.
56 Khan, “GCC Aides Meet Today to Weigh Nuclear Energy Options”, Arab News, 28 Feb. 2012.
57 The public in the UAE has raised no objection to the announced nuclear energy policy, which has been sold as a way to relieve pressure on the country's fossil fuel resources, increase the security of electrical power supply, create employment and a high-tech industry, and reduce carbon emissions. For more details, see: World Nuclear Association, “Nuclear Power in the United Arab Emirates”, Mar. 2015.
58 Bowman, “Chain Reaction”, p. 15.
59 Kaye and Whery, “A Nuclear Iran: The Reactions of Neighbours”, Survival 49 (2007), pp. 111–28.