A typology for Antarctic futures

ABSTRACT

This research note places interest in the long-term future of Antarctica in a historical context. It then examines the historical development of thinking about the long-term future of Antarctica over time using a typology of scenarios often used by researchers in futures studies, namely extrapolatory studies, back-casting, exploratory studies and integral futures. This covers work from the biophysical sciences, social sciences and the humanities. Drawing on literary works as well as research publications, this research note aims to provide a tentative structure in which Antarctic futures can be further developed and explored. It should be of benefit for those engaged in research, those involved in the management of Antarctic programmes, and those responsible for developing Antarctic policy. The paper concludes that meaningful debate about the future of the continent can be accelerated through the active development of futures literacy within the Antarctic research and management communities for improved policy outcomes.

KEYWORDS:

• Antarctic literature
• Antarctic studies
• futures literacy
• futures studies
• futures typology

Acknowledgments

Insights by Kees Bastmeijer and Alan Hemmings were very helpful in developing the paper. Support from Fiona Carswell, Elizabeth Leane, Daniela Liggett, and Fraser Morgan is also gratefully acknowledged.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

1. For example: Scott, “Managing sovereignty,” 3−40; Liggett et al., “From frozen continent,” 357−66; O’Reilly, “Antarctic climate futures,” 384−98; Tin et al., Antarctic Futures; Liggett et al., “Is it all going south?” 459−78; Ferrada, “Five factors that will decide,” 84–109; and Rintoul et al., “Choosing the future of Antarctica,” 233–41

2. Nikoleris et al., “Narrating climate futures,” 307–19

3. Alan Hemmings, personal communication, 2018.

4. Brady discusses China; global responses to climate change are covered by, for example Rintoul et al., “Choosing the future of Antarctica”; while Jabour reviews bioprospecting and resource usage.

5. Frame, “New Zealand,” 45–55.

6. van Notten et al., “An updated scenario typology,” 423−43.

7. Riedy, “An Integral extension,” 150−59; Slaughter, “Integral futures methodologies,” 103−08; Inayatullah, “Epistemological pluralism in futures studies,” 99–102; and Schultz, “Models and methods in motion,” 174−76.

8. For example see Liggett et al., “Is it all going south?” for Antarctic scenarios.

9. Nelson, “Extending foresight,” 282−94; Riedy, “An integral extension”; Sardar, “The namesake,” 177−84; Slaughter, “Integral futures methodologies”; Slaughter, “What difference does ‘integral’ make?” 120−37; Slaughter, “Welcome to the Anthropocene,” 119−26; and Stewart, “Integral scenarios,” 150.

10. Nelson, “Extending foresight.”

11. For example Inayatullah, “Epistemological pluralism”; and Schultz, “Models and methods in motion.”

12. Antarctic fiction is discussed in depth in Leane, Antarctica in Fiction; Leane, “Yesterday’s tomorrows and tomorrow’s yesterdays,” 333−47; and Leane, “Fictionalizing Antarctica,” 21–36.

13. Wilson, The Spiritual History of Ice.

14. See Kennicutt et al., “Six priorities for Antarctic science,” 23−25; Kennicutt et al., “A roadmap for Antarctic and Southern Ocean,” 3−18; and Kennicutt et al., “Delivering 21st century Antarctic,” 407−23.

15. Examples include ASAC, Australia’s Antarctic Program beyond 2000; Tetley, “Antarctica 2010”; Liggett et al., “Is it all going south?”; and Rintoul et al., “Choosing the future of Antarctica.”

16. Batchelor, The Birth of the People’s Republic of Antarctica; Brockmeier, The Brief History of the Dead; Cooper, The Last Continent; Darrieussecq, White; Johnson, Pym: A Novel; Le Guin, “Sur,”38; Lovecraft, “At the Mountains of Madness”; Poe, The Narrative of Arthur; Robinson, Antarctica; Seaborn, “Symzonia”; White, Shackleton’s Man Goes South; and Trojanow, The Lamentations of Zeno.

17. For example, Slaughter, “Welcome to the Anthropocene”; Turney et al., “Global peak in atmospheric,” 3293; Waters et al., “The Anthropocene is functionally”; and Zalasiewicz et al., “When did the Anthropocene begin?” 196−203.

18. Miller, “Futures literacy,” 341−62; and Miller, “Learning, the future,” 513−23.

19. Nikoleris et al., “Narrating climate futures.”

Additional information

Funding

This research was supported, in part, by the Ross Sea Region Terrestrial Data Analysis research program, funded by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, New Zealand, contract number CO9X1413.