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ABSTRACT
Why did Washington State citizens vote down a 2010 ballot measure that would have increased taxes on the rich? This outcome appears to contradict consistent survey findings that majorities of the public support increases in taxes on the rich, including those from Washington State polls early in the campaign, before support for the measure plummeted. We investigate the fate of the Washington ballot measure in order to shed light on the broader question of under what conditions the American public supports government efforts to combat rising economic inequality. We do so through a brief case study of the campaign, combined with an original survey experiment in which we isolate the effects of a particular framing strategy focusing on a unique feature of the measure: it would create a new state income tax. The findings indicate that this frame was successful in depressing public support for the measure, possibly because the frame tapped into distrust in government while deactivating negative attitudes about rich people. In the concluding section, we place these findings in context of the mixed results of other recent state-level ballot measures attempting to raise taxes on the rich, and identify implications for future efforts to redistribute wealth downward.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1 For example, Page and Jacobs’ original survey found that 56% of survey respondents endorsed the proposition that government should redistribute wealth by heavy taxes on the rich. Similarly, Piston’s (Citation2018) analysis of American National Election Studies survey data found that 68% of survey respondents supported increased taxes on those making more than $250,000 per year, and 76% supported increased taxes on millionaires. For similar findings in a recent Pew poll, see: “Top Frustrations with Tax System: Sense the Corporations, Wealthy Don’t Pay Fair Share.” 2017. Pew. http://www.people-press.org/2017/04/14/top-frustrations-with-tax-system-sense-that-corporations-wealthy-dont-pay-fair-share/11-9/. Finally, for similar findings in a recent poll conducted by Gallup, see: Newport, Frank. 2017. “Majority Say Wealthy Americans, Corporations Taxed Too Little.” http://news.gallup.com/poll/208685/majority-say-wealthy-americans-corporations-taxed-little.aspx.
2 Tax Policy Center. “Analysis of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.” Last Updated April 16, 2018. http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/feature/analysis-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act; Scott, Dylan. 2017. “The Republican Tax Bill is a Disaster for Income Inequality: The Tax Plan was Already Unequal. The Version Trump Will Sign into Law is Even More So.” Vox. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/20/16790606/gop-tax-vote-2017-income-inequality.
3 In October, a poll found that 58% of residents supported the initiative and tat 42% opposed it. In the following month, only 46% of voters supported the measure. https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/5014270-CU-Poll-Oct-2018.html#document/p7.
4 In August, a poll found that 51% of residents support the initiative and that 34% opposed. In November, a mere 37% voted for the tax increase on higher-income residents. https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/otherstates/2018/8_8_2018_marginals_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=9EA98F0C1ABBC170D2FCC7DEE78D0D197E3801E.
5 The state of Washington has no personal income tax.
6 In 2012, California’s Proposition 38 would have used graduated income tax increases to fund education and early childhood programs. While the ballot measure proposed to raise the tax rate most on the wealthiest Californians, unlike Washington’s Initiative 1098, it also proposed to raise taxes for most residents.
7 Unfortunately, only a single poll was conducted on Colorado’s Amendment 73 (2018).
8 These polls categorize “leaners” as independents rather than partisans. Thus, it is likely that the decline in support among independents in is partially driven by changing attitudes among Washingtonians that are better described as Democrats or Republicans.
9 The capital of Washington State, used here to refer to state government.
10 Defeat 1098. 2010. Don’t Trust Olympia [Television Commercial]. Retrieved from YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vSTD4xnxCk.
11 The Othello Outlook staff. 2010. “Tax could be disaster.” The Othello Outlook (Washington). http://oth.stparchive.com/Archive/OTH/OTH10282010p02.php?tags=tax%20could%20be%20disaster.
12 Spokesman Review staff. 2010. “Income Tax Initiative Dripping with Flaws.” Spokesman Review (Spokane, WA). http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2010/sep/26/editorial-income-tax-initiative-dripping-with/; Camden, Jim. 2010. “State Touts Lack of Income Tax; Magazine Supplement Makes no Mention of November Ballot Issue.” Spokesman Review (Spokane, WA). Retrieved from LexisNexis. http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2010/aug/28/state-touts-lack-of-income-tax/?print-friendly.
13 The Columbian staff. 2010. “In our view: ‘No’ on I-1098.” The Columbian (Vancouver, Washington). Retrieved from LexisNexis.
14 Importantly, as we show in Appendix 5, Democrats and Republicans (including leaners), as well as independents, were all considerably less supportive of the tax in the experimental condition.
15 Interestingly, when controlling for other variables, party identification is not associated with attitudes towards the tax increase.
16 These states are Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming.
17 A Suffolk University poll conducted in early August found that 51% of residents supported Question 1, while only 34% opposed. In November, however, the measure was overwhelmingly rejected by a margin of 63% to 37%. https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/otherstates/2018/8_8_2018_marginals_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=9EA98F0C1ABBCF170D2FCC7DEE78D0D197E3801E.
18 Rubin, Richard. 2019. “Democrat Elizabeth Warren Proposes Wealth Tax on Rich Households: The Plan Drive the Tax-Policy Discussions within the Democratic Party further to the Left.” Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrat-elizabeth-warren-weighs-wealth-tax-on-rich-households-11548369037; Velencia, Janie. 2019. “Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Wants to Raise Taxes on the Rich—And Americans Agree.” FiveThirtyEight. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-wants-to-raise-taxes-on-the-rich-and-americans-agree/.