Labour market mismatch among master’s graduates in the humanities from 1995 to 2015 in Norway

Figures & data

Table 1. Unemployment among graduates in the labour force six months after graduation, by study programme 1995–2015. Per cent.

Subject field	Period 1 1995–2000	Period 2 2001–2007	Period 3 2009–2015	Total 1995–2015	N 1995–2015
Norwegian and Nordic studies	2.7	3.1	1.6	2.6	356
English^b,c	3.4	1.0	(11.9)	3.8	274
French and German	4.3	10.2	–	6.7	156
Other languages	12.3	5.0	6.2	6.9	323
Literature	11.3	18.5	8.2	13.4	261
History	7.5	5.9	5.7	6.5	551
History of art and archaeology	13.0	10.5	15.9	12.5	364
Culture studies	8.4	10.5	12.2	10.9	347
Philosophy^b,c	7.7	9.8	(26.5)	12.5	148
Religion	11.8	5.4	8.0	7.7	300
Humanities – total	7.2	8.1	9.5	8.2	3114
Other master’s degrees^a,b	7.8	6.8	6.8	7.1	28,874

^a Significant difference between periods 1 and 2 at the 5% level.

^b Significant difference between periods 1 and 3 at the 5% level.

^c Significant difference between periods 2 and 3 at the 5% level.

(): 20 ≤ N < 50.

Figure 1. Unemployment among master graduates in the labour force six months after graduation 1995–2015. Per cent.

Figure 2. Over-education among employed graduates 1995–2015. Per cent.

Table 2. Over-education among employed graduates six months after graduation, 1995–2015. Per cent.

Subject field	Period 1 1995–2000	Period 2 2001–2007	Period 3 2009–2015	Total 1995–2015	N 1995–2015
Norwegian and Nordic studies	16	19	27	19	335
English^a	36	23	(27)	30	249
French and German^a	23	(46)	–	32	134
Other languages^b,c	20	35	52	41	289
Literature	44	52	47	48	218
History^a,b	28	42	44	37	481
History of art and archeology^a,b	14	32	36	29	300
Culture studies^a,c	41	57	41	45	297
Philosophy^b	(30)	42	(56)	41	128
Religion	(36)	37	40	38	265
Humanities – total^a,b,c	27	38	42	36	2723
Other master’s degrees^a,b	17	22	21	20	25,654

^a Significant difference between periods 1 and 2 at the 5% level.

^b Significant differences between periods 1 and 3 at the 5% level.

^c Significant differences between periods 2 and 3 at the 5% level.

(): 20 ≤ N < 50.

Table 3. Logistic regression of the probability of unemployment for graduates in labour force. 2003–2015.^a,b

	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3
	B	Rob. S.E.^c	B	Rob. S.E.^c	B	Rob. S.E.^c
Subfield of humanities
Norwegian and Nordic studies	−1.485	0.432	−1.249	0.415	−0.933	0.396
English	−0.576	0.642	−0.333	0.904	−0.218	0.980
French and German	−0.130	0.415	0.053	0.457	−0.298	0.337
Other languages	−0.391	0.303	−0.233	0.370	−0.119	0.426
Literature	0.529	0.419	0.791	0.478	0.818	0.459
History	−0.398	0.179	−0.153	0.421	−0.237	0.408
History of art and archaeology	0.421	0.390	0.647	0.627	0.765	0.682
Culture studies	0.308	0.191	0.461	0.346	0.547	0.438
Philosophy	0.403	0.496	0.627	0.702	0.230	0.690
Religion	−0.327	0.267	−0.115	0.440	−0.023	0.479
Supply/demand
Relative growth in number of master graduates			0.077	0.107	0.058	0.119
General unemployment rate			0.570	0.139	0.527	0.149
General unemployment rate humanities			−0.077	0.182	−0.067	0.190
Selectivity measures
Grades from upper secondary school					−0.112	0.042
Sociodemographic variables
Female					−0.263	0.062
Age 26–29					0.092	0.068
Age 30+					0.433	0.098
Married/cohabitant					−0.424	0.088
Children aged 6 or less					0.225	0.095
Mother or father has a bachelor’s degree					−0.011	0.033
Mother of father has master’s degree					0.025	0.065
Other human capital variables
Labour market experience not relevant to education					−0.180	0.045
Labour market experience relevant to education					−1.049	0.040
Additional education completed before the master’s degree					−0.009	0.057
Trend-variables
Year (2003 = 0)	−0.012	0.036	−0.001	0.006	0.016	0.006
Year * humanities	0.048	0.027	0.041	0.018	0.031	0.015
Constant	−2.500	0.304	−3.985	0.495	−2.699	0.595
Number of observations	18,772		18,772		18,022
Log pseudo likelihood	−4856		−4807		−4433

^a Reference group = male, age 21–25, neither mother or father has HE, singles, no labour market experience, other master degrees.

^b Bold = Significant at 5% level; bold and italic = significance at 1% level.

^c Robust standard errors clustered around cohort.

Table 4. Logistic regression of the probability of overeducation for graduates in labour force. 2003–2015.^a,b

	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3
	B	Rob. S.E.^c	B	Rob. S.E.^c	B	Rob. S.E.^c
Subfield of humanities
Norwegian and Nordic studies	−0.044	0.143	0.158	0.253	0.120	0.239
English	0.034	0.233	0.242	0.209	0.129	0.239
French and German	0.625	0.224	0.830	0.322	0.739	0.319
Other languages	0.853	0.130	0.769	0.182	0.700	0.196
Literature	1.055	0.151	1.145	0.128	0.950	0.131
History	0.815	0.125	0.983	0.224	0.766	0.202
History of art and archaeology	0.436	0.143	0.545	0.221	0.368	0.180
Culture studies	0.785	0.178	0.771	0.170	0.642	0.204
Philosophy	0.602	0.350	0.783	0.418	0.679	0.474
Religion	0.509	0.128	0.501	0.141	0.469	0.166
Supply/demand
Relative growth in number of master graduates			0.165	0.025	0.177	0.015
General unemployment rate			0.190	0.016	0.140	0.026
General unemployment rate humanities			−0.062	0.063	−0.025	0.067
Selectivity measures
Grades from upper secondary school					−0.213	0.052
Sociodemographic variables
Female					0.022	0.050
Age 26–29					0.329	0.067
Age 30+					0.358	0.103
Married/cohabitant					−0.149	0.032
Children aged 6 or less					−0.120	0.052
Mother or father has a bachelor’s degree					−0.104	0.042
Mother of father has master’s degree					−0.243	0.044
Other human capital variables
Labour market experience not relevant to education					0.325	0.044
Labour market experience relevant to education					−0.455	0.019
Additional education completed before the master’s degree					−0.195	0.076
Trend-variables
Year (2003 = 0)	−0.019	0.011	−0.026	0.002	−0.015	0.003
Year * humanities	0.034	0.008	0.034	0.005	0.033	0.004
Constant	−1.100	0.088	−1.708	0.053	−0.548	0.265
Number of observations	16,849		16,849		16,255
Log pseudo likelihood	−9211		−9197		−8620

^a Reference group = male, age 21–25, neither mother or father has HE, singles, no labour market experience, other master degrees.

^b Bold = Significant at 5% level; bold and italic = significance at 1% level.

^c Robust standard errors clustered around cohort.

Figure 3. Estimated probabilities for unemployment and over-education 2015, six months after graduation for specific categories of graduates.

Figure A1. Number of graduates, in total and for humanities. 1995–2015.

Table A1. Graduates’ background 1995–2015. Per cent.

Subject field	% Women	Age (av. years)	% Parents with HE	Average grades from upper secondary education – 2003–2015 Score 1–6 (highest)	Percentage of graduates with relevant work experience	N (% women, age, parents with HE)
Norwegian and Nordic studies	83.3	32.1	63.0	4.74	54.4	414
English	79.1	32.2	61.2	4.89	42.1	314
French and German	86.4	31.6	64.4	4.82	40.3	183
Other languages	69.5	32.1	68.7	4.82	51.7	351
Literature	68.8	30.5	73.3	4.84	40.4	285
History	43.2	31.7	63.5	4.654	35.6	628
History of art and Archaeology	71.1	34.0	65.7	4.58	56.9	401
Culture studies	77.0	33.4	65.2	4.63	55.0	372
Philosophy	29.5	31.7	72.1	4.74	33.7	168
Religion	58.8	35.4	58.5	4.65	54.9	337
Humanities – total	66.0	32.5	65.1	4.70	47.3	3490
Other master’s degrees	53.4	29.6	64.9	4.74	46.1	30,985
Total	54.7	29.9	64.9	4.74	46.2	34,475

Note: Bold = significance level difference from ‘other master’s graduates’ 5%, bold and Italic = significance level difference from ‘other’.