Vulnerability assessment of forest landslide risk using GIS adaptation to climate change

Figures & data

Table 1. Correlations between variables used to assess vulnerability to landslide under heavy rain.

Variable item		Climate exposure	Sensitivity	Adaptability	VRI
Climate exposure	Pearson correlation coefficient	1	−0.073	−0.033	+0.168
	p-value (two-tailed)		0.803	0.912	0.565
Sensitivity	Pearson correlation coefficient	−0.073	1	−0.430	0.917**
	p-value (two-tailed)	0.803		0.125	0.000
Adaptability	Pearson correlation coefficient	−0.033	−0.430	1	−0.698**
	p-value (two-tailed)	0.912	0.125		0.005
VRI	Pearson correlation coefficient	+0.168	+0.917**	−0.698**	1
	p-value (two-tailed)	0.565	0.000	0.005

Notes: **Statistically significant result at the p = 0.01 level (two-tailed p); (−) negative correlation between two variables; (+) positive correlation between two variables.

Table 2. Weights of variables used in assessment of vulnerability to landslide under heavy rain.

Variable item			P(B|A)
Proxy variables		Climate exposure	0.4283
		Sensitivity	0.3103
		Adaptability	0.2614
Specific proxy variables	Climate exposure	Times of the day when the daily amount of precipitation is 80 mm or greater	0.2833
		Maximum daily precipitation	0.2622
		Daily precipitation in summer	0.2350
		Maximum 5-day precipitation	0.2195
	Sensitivity	Forest gradient	0.4154
		Coniferous forest vegetation area	0.3187
		Altitude of the forest	0.2319
		Denuded forest land area	0.0340
	Adaptability	Number of forest officers	0.2716
		Prevention of forest destruction area	0.2862
		Gross local production	0.2284
		Financial independence	0.2138

Table 3. Assessment of vulnerability to landslide under heavy rain, 2000s.

		Vulnerability assessment items
City or county	Climate exposure	Sensitivity	Adaptability	VRI	Rank
Muju	0.1961	0.5976	0.0906	0.5329	1
Sunchang	0.2405	0.4894	0.0650	0.5203	2
Yimsil	0.2282	0.5098	0.0767	0.5172	3
Namwon	0.1723	0.5769	0.1097	0.4983	4
Jinan	0.1603	0.5816	0.0963	0.4981	5
Jangsu	0.1396	0.5728	0.0702	0.4904	6
Jeongeup	0.2346	0.4754	0.1103	0.4903	7
Wanju	0.1794	0.5395	0.1426	0.4708	8
Buan	0.1911	0.4077	0.0676	0.4447	9
Gochang	0.1859	0.3982	0.0654	0.4373	10
Gimje	0.1923	0.2725	0.0785	0.3738	11
Jeonju	0.2015	0.3513	0.3478	0.3065	12
Gunsan	0.1946	0.1588	0.1722	0.2796	13
Iksan	0.1663	0.2158	0.2026	0.2759	14

Figure 1. Assessment of vulnerability to landslide under heavy rain, 2000s.

Table 4. Assessment of vulnerability to landslide under heavy rain: averages throughout Jeollabuk-do, 2000s.

Variable item			P(B|A)
Proxy variables		Climate exposure	0.19
		Sensitivity	0.44
		Adaptability	0.12
Specific proxy variables	Climate exposure	Times of the day when the daily amount of precipitation is 80 mm or greater	0.13
		Maximum daily precipitation	0.23
		Daily precipitation in summer	0.23
		Maximum 5-day precipitation	0.19
	Sensitivity	Forest gradient	0.69
		Coniferous forest vegetation area	0.25
		Altitude of the forest	0.05
		Denuded forest land area	0.31
	Adaptability	Number of forest officers	0.18
		Prevention of forest destruction area	0.11
		Gross local production	0.09
		Financial independence	0.09

Figure 2. Contribution of individual variables to overall vulnerability to landslide under heavy rain: average throughout Jeollabuk-do, 2000s.

Table 5. Climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability index averages by group, 2000s.

City or county		Climate exposure	Sensitivity	Adaptability
Group 1	Muju, Sunchang, Yimsil	0.2216	0.5323	0.0774
Group 2	Namwon, Jinan, Jangsu, Jeongeup	0.1767	0.5517	0.0966
Group 3	Wanju, Buan, Gochang, Gimje	0.1872	0.4044	0.0885
Group 4	Jeonju, Gunsan, Iksan	0.1875	0.2419	0.2409

Figure 3. Climate exposure, sensitivity, adaptability: average index by group, 2000s.

Figure 4. Assessment of vulnerability to landslide under heavy rain: VRI results for the 2000s, 2020s, 2050s, and 2010s.

Table 6. VRI of landslide under heavy rain during four time periods.

		VRI
Current rank	City or county	2000s	2020s	2050s	2100s
1	Muju	0.5329	0.4512	0.5550	0.4412
2	Sunchang	0.5203	0.5468	0.6912	0.5477
3	Yimsil	0.5172	0.5634	0.7041	0.5352
4	Namwon	0.4983	0.5514	0.6426	0.5593
5	Jinan	0.4981	0.5030	0.6081	0.4649
6	Jangsu	0.4904	0.5086	0.6209	0.4932
7	Jeongeup	0.4903	0.4889	0.6435	0.4809
8	Wanju	0.4708	0.4813	0.5731	0.4514
9	Buan	0.4447	0.4383	0.5460	0.4345
10	Gochang	0.4373	0.4492	0.5738	0.4684
11	Gimje	0.3738	0.3974	0.4988	0.3759
12	Jeonju	0.3065	0.3304	0.4509	0.2926
13	Gunsan	0.2796	0.3080	0.3694	0.3043
14	Iksan	0.2759	0.3067	0.3584	0.2953