Causes of the Crisis in Ukraine

Figures & data

Figure 1. Treaty of Perpetual Peace, 1686.

Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=44247299 and https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Polish-Russian_peace_treaty_1686.JPG.

Figure 2. Ukraine through the ages.

Note: Soviet era oblast borders are not always exactly the same as those of former historical regions of Ukraine, especially in the lower Dnieper area.

Table

Timeline from the First Proclamation of a Ukrainian State November 20, 1917: proclamation of Ukrainian National (People’s) Republic (UNR) in Kiev –> December 12, 1917: proclamation of the Ukrainian Soviet Republic in Kharkov –> January 26, 1918: declaration of independence of the UNR –> November 1, 1918: proclamation of Western-Ukrainian People’s Republic in Lvov –> 1919: Creation of Ukrainian SSR, while western territories fell under Polish control. The Ukrainian SSR was a socialist constituent republic of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) which existed from 1919 to 1991. It was formed during the Russian Civil War, once the Bolsheviks took over the short-lived and German-supported UNR from Szymon Petlyura’s Ukrainian nationalists –> 1939: Eastern Galicia joined the Ukrainian SSR -> 1940: Northern Bukovina and Southern Bessarabia joined the Ukrainian SSR –> 1945: Zakarpatie [Transcarpathia] joined the Ukrainian SSR –> 1954: Crimea was transferred to the Ukrainian SSR –> February 12, 1991: the Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic of Crimea (ASSR Crimea), abolished in 1945, was re-established –> August 24, 1991: Act of Declaration of Independence of Ukraine adopted by the Supreme Soviet of the Ukrainian SSR. Timelines of the Territories Depicted in Figure 2 Volhynia & Eastern Galicia were parts of the Habsburg Empire share of the Polish Partitions, occupied by Poland in 1918–1939, conveyed to the USSR and the Ukrainian SSR by Stalin in 1939, occupied by Greater Germany in 1941–1944. Transcarpathia: Podkarpatska Rus or Sub-Carpathian Ruthenia was a Habsburg domain, occupied by Czechoslovakia in 1918–1939, occupied by Hungary in 1939–1944, liberated by the Red Army in 1944, and joined the Ukrainian SSR in 1946. Northern Bukovina was part of the Habsburg share of the Polish Partitions, occupied by Romania 1918–1940, conveyed to the USSR in 1940, occupied by Romania in 1941–1944, and joined the Ukrainian SSR in 1944. Upper Dnieper (Right Bank): comprises territories conveyed to the Russian Empire as part of the three Polish Partitions (1772–1795) under Catherine the Great. Upper Dnieper (Left Bank): Cossack Hetmanate of Zaporozhye conveyed to Tsardom of Russia under the 1667 Truce of Andrusovo and the 1686 Treaty of Perpetual Peace which secured Russia’s possession of left-bank Ukraine plus the right-bank city of Kiev. Poland-Lithuania received 1,000,000 złotych or 200,000 roubles for the lands of left-bank Ukraine. In 1686 Poland received 146,000 roubles as compensation for the cession of right-bank territories to Russia. Lower Dnieper: the Cossack Hetmanate of Zaporozhye was a vassal first of Poland and then of the Commonwealth from 1555 to 1647, was independent between 1648 and 1653 and, after pledging allegiance to the Tsar Aleksey Mikhaylovich, was a vassal of Russia from 1654 until 1763. Slobozhanshchyna located in northeastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia was conveyed to Russian Tsardom in 1654. In 1765 it was converted into the Sloboda Ukraine Governorate. In 1922 the western part of this area was conveyed to the Ukrainian SSR. Novorossiya: includes parts of Khanate of the Crimea and the Ottoman Empire that were conveyed to the Russian Empire in 1783 under Catherine the Great. The northern part (excluding the Crimean Peninsula) was assigned to the Ukrainian SSR in 1922 along with adjacent territories conveyed to the Russian Empire after the Russian-Turkish Wars of 1768–1774 and 1787–1791. Crimean Peninsula: the peninsula part of the Khanate of Crimea was transferred to the Ukrainian SSR in 1954 by Khrushchev in violation of the Soviet Constitution due to the absence of the required referendum. Bessarabia: conveyed to the Russian Empire after the Russian-Turkish War of 1806–1812, occupied by Romania in 1918–1940, part of the Ukrainian SSR in 1940–1941, occupied by Romania in 1941–1944, and part of the Ukrainian SSR in 1944.

Figure 5. GDP evolutions in selected former Soviet republics and Poland, 1989–2020.

Source: The Conference Board (2022).

Figure 3. Ukrainian 2004 and 2010 presidential elections.

Notes: The figures refer to the share of votes for the candidate receiving the largest share in each area. The reddish tones refer to places where Yanukovych came first.

Source: Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR). www.osce.org/odhir.

Figure 8. Ukraine’s trade with the EU28, Russia and China, 1996–2021.

Note: This data excludes Crimea and the two People’s Republics from 2014.

Sources: Elaborated from Ukrainian regional GDP, 2003–2019 and from State Statistics Service of Ukraine, 2022. http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/.

Figure 4. Number of explosions in Donbass, February 2022.

Source: OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM) Daily Reports, www.osce.org. For 12th and 13th and 19th and 20th two-day figure partitioned approximately in the light of the number of ceasefire violations.

Figure 6. Population change in Ukraine, 1990–2020.

Source: Elaborated from State Statistics Service of Ukraine, 2022. http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/.

Figure 7. Ukrainian regional GDP, 2003–2019.

Notes: Data for Donetsk and Lugansk exclude the DPR and LNR. Estimates were derived from real GDP indices and 2003 real GDP in Ukrainian Kryvnia UAH).

Source: Elaborated from State Statistics Service of Ukraine, 2022. http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/.

The Conference Board. 2022. “Total Economy Database™—Data.” https://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/total-economy-database-productivity.

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State Statistics Service of Ukraine. 2022. “Economic Statistics.” https://ukrstat.gov.ua/.

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