Preventing a Colour Revolution: the Belarusian example as an illustration for the Kremlin?

ABSTRACT

Much has been written about Russian authoritarian promotion in the former-Soviet Union and further afield, but there has been little analysis of Russian learning from other regimes. This article argues that the Belarusian regime provides lessons to Moscow for overcoming democratic protests, having learnt from the 2000 overthrow of Slobodan Milošević in Serbia. The Belarusian case therefore expands a literature primarily centred on Russia, extending understanding of authoritarian learning and questioning Russia’s role as the primary authoritarian promoter in the region.

KEYWORDS:

• Belarus
• Russia
• Lukashenka
• the Kremlin
• Putin
• learning
• authoritarianism
• Colour Revolutions

Acknowledgements

I would like to thank Professor Andrew Wilson (UCL) and Dr Peter Duncan (UCL) for their help and feedback. I would also like to extend thanks to Professor Sarah Birch (King’s College London), Professor Yarik Kryvoi, and Professor Thomas Ambrosio (North Dakota State University) for their time in reading older manuscripts. I would like to extend thanks to Elizaveta Navoschik for her help in translations. Thank you too to East European Politics for publishing this article, and the special issue on authoritarian learning. Thank you too to my anonymous reviewers. Any mistakes here are purely my own.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes on contributor

Stephen G. F. Hall is a PhD candidate at the School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES) at University College London (UCL). His thesis is about tracing the processes of authoritarian learning in Belarus, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine.

Notes

1. Interview with Aliaksandr Papko (Belarusian Institute of Strategic Studies). 8 August 2016, Warsaw.

2. Interview with Andrei Yahorau (Director of Centre for European Transformation). 23 August 2016 on Skype.

3. Interview with Valery Kavaleuski (Voice of America and Freedom House). 2 August 2016 on Skype.

4. Interview with Yauheni Preiherman (Director of Liberal Club NGO in Belarus). 18 August 2016, Coventry, UK.

5. Interview with Valery Kavaleuski (Voice of America and Freedom House). 2 August 2016 on Skype.

6. Interview with Aliaksandr Aleshka (Belarusian Institute of Strategic Studies). 17 August 2016 on Skype.

7. Interview with Aliaksandr Papko (Belarusian Institute of Strategic Studies). 8 August 2016, Warsaw. Interview with Yauheni Preiherman (Director of Liberal Club NGO in Belarus). 18 August 2016, Coventry, UK.

8. Interview with Aliaksandr Papko (Belarusian Institute of Strategic Studies). 8 August 2016, Warsaw. Interview with Aliaksandr Aleshka (Belarusian Institute of Strategic Studies). 17 August 2016 on Skype.

9. Interview with Ales Herasimenka (Belarus Watch and Generation.by). 19 August 2016, London.

10. Interview with Valery Kavaleuski (Voice of America and Freedom House). 2 August 2016 on Skype.

11. Interview with Aliaksandr Papko (Belarusian Institute of Strategic Studies). 8 August 2016, Warsaw.

12. Interview with Kirill Koktysh (Associate-Professor MGIMO University). 22 December 2015 email correspondence.

13. Interview with Yauheni Preiherman (Director of Liberal Club NGO in Belarus). 18 August 2016, Coventry, UK.

14. Interview with Andrei Yahorau (Director of Centre for European Transformation). 23 August 2016 on Skype.

15. Interview with Anna Maria Dyner-Śmigielska (Polish Institute of International Affairs). 23 December 2016 email correspondence.