Uninformed or informed populists? The relationship between political knowledge, socio-economic status and populist attitudes in Poland

Figures & data

Table 1. Political knowledge questions.

Question	% Incorrect	% Don't know	% Correct
Which of the following countries shares a border with Poland? (Multiple-choice, single answer: Latvia; Hungary; Slovakia; Slovenia)	14.34	9.83	75.82
In what year did Poland join NATO? (Multiple-choice, single answer: 1989; 1999; 2004; 2010)	26.36	40.44	33.20
Does every person born on Polish territory automatically become a Polish citizen, regardless of the citizenship of their parents? (Multiple-choice, single answer: Yes; No)	64.11	13.91	21.98
How many houses does the Polish parliament have? (Open question, correct answer: 2)	3.64	43.22	53.14
Which of the following institutions is responsible for preparing and implementing the budget? (Multiple-choice, single answer: Parliament; the Monetary Policy Council; the President; the government; the National Bank of Poland)	38.38	14.51	47.11
How are Members of the European Parliament appointed in Poland? (Multiple-choice, single answer: Half are chosen by parliament, and the rest by regional assemblies; Directly elected by all voters aged 18 or more; Designated by the Prime Minister; Directly elected by all voters aged 25 or more)	14.06	20.89	65.05
During the 2015 election campaign, which party promised a child benefit of 500 złoty per child? (Open question, correct answer: Law and Justice)	1.91	8.45	89.64
During the 2015 election campaign, which party proposed the introduction of a single labour contract? (Open question, correct answer: Civic Platform)	13.31	74.67	12.03
During the 2015 election campaign, which party proposed a 16% flat tax? (Open question, correct answer: Nowoczesna)	8.74	73.50	17.76
Is it true that between 2007 and 2015 around 2,000 new motorways and express roads were built? (Multiple-choice, single answer: Yes; No)	15.25	22.55	62.20
Is it true that the government of Donald Tusk raised the basic rate of value-added tax? (Multiple-choice, single answer: Yes; No)	5.20	23.73	71.07
Is it true that the 2005–2007 government of Jarosław Kaczyński lowered the rate of income tax for high earners? (Multiple-choice, single answer: Yes; No)	17.86	50.98	31.16
Is it true that in 2006 almost all Civic Platform deputies voted for the creation of the Central Anti-Corruption Agency? (Multiple-choice, single answer: Yes; No)	7.92	62.60	29.48

Correct answers are given in italics.

Table 2. Populism questions.

Question	n	Mean	SD
Poland is in need of someone who will be strong enough to change our system of government entirely, and introduce a new, just order.	1,676	4.14	1.09
In Poland, a few people have taken control of powers that should rightfully be exercised by the people.	1,603	3.90	1.06
This is the last moment to rescue Poland in the face of a looming crisis.	1,555	3.30	1.27
Solving the problems our country faces is very easy; it is simply necessary to give power to those who want to do this.	1,630	3.87	1.11
Everything in politics is either good or evil; the choice is a simple one.	1,586	2.99	1.26
It isn't the government that rules over us; the people who are really controlling things are unknown to us.	1,727	2.92	1.29
Those who claim that there are powerful hidden forces conspiring against Poland are in many senses correct.	1,729	2.61	1.25

Table 3. Regression of populism on political knowledge and socio-economic status.

	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3
Predictors	Estimates	CI (95%)	Estimates	CI (95%)	Estimates	CI (95%)
(Intercept)	0.65	0.62 – 0.68	0.65	0.60 – 0.70	0.67	0.59 – 0.75
Political knowledge	−0.08	−0.12 – −0.03	−0.07	−0.16 – 0.01	−0.09	−0.18 – −0.00
SES: Low	0.05	0.03 – 0.07	0.03	−0.03 – 0.10	0.01	−0.06 – 0.07
SES: Medium	−0.10	−0.12 – −0.07	−0.02	−0.12 – 0.06	−0.04	−0.13 – 0.05
Political knowledge * SES: Low			0.03	−0.08 – 0.14	0.06	−0.05 – 0.17
Political knowledge * SES: High			−0.11	−0.24 – 0.02	−0.07	−0.20 – 0.06
Age					0.00	−0.00 – 0.00
Gender: Female					0.01	−0.01 – 0.03
Party ID: No					−0.02	−0.04 – −0.00
Party ID: Don't know					−0.02	−0.07 – 0.03
Region: Village					0.01	−0.01 – 0.04
Region: Town < 19999					0.00	−0.03 – 0.04
Region: Town 20000–49999					−0.00	−0.04 – 0.03
Region: Town 50000–99999					0.00	−0.03 – 0.04
Region: Town/City > 500000					−0.04	−0.07 – −0.00
Left-right					−0.14	−0.28 – 0.01
Left-right squared					0.19	0.07 – 0.30
Observations	1733		1733		1733
R^2 Bayes	0.127		0.131		0.166

Notes: Reference categories are SES:Medium, Gender:Male, Party ID: Yes, Region: Town 100000 – 499999. Coefficients in bold are those for which the probability of direction (Bayesian approximation of the p-value) is 95% or greater.

Figure 1. Interactive effects of political knowledge and socio-economic status on populism

Table 4. Regression of vote choice on populism, political knowledge and socio-economic status.

	Right		Left		Other		Did not vote
Predictors	Log-Odds	CI (95%)	Log-Odds	CI (95%)	Log-Odds	CI (95%)	Log-Odds	CI (95%)
(Intercept)	1.14	0.00 – 2.27	−0.39	−2.00 – 1.22	−4.27	−6.33 – −2.32	−1.46	−2.65 – −0.28
Populism	1.72	0.46 – 2.92	0.85	−0.61 – 2.28	0.56	−1.03 – 2.18	2.28	1.01 – 3.49
Political knowledge	−2.47	−3.64 – −1.28	0.69	−0.67 – 2.05	0.61	−0.90 – 2.09	−0.92	−2.10 – 0.26
SES: Low	0.70	−0.28 – 1.66	−0.45	−1.69 – 0.80	0.13	−1.17 – 1.41	0.35	−0.64 – 1.36
SES: Medium	−0.41	−1.47 – 0.66	−0.07	−1.26 – 1.12	−0.08	−1.39 – 1.22	−0.97	−2.04 – 0.09
Age	−0.04	−0.05 – −0.03	−0.02	−0.03 – −0.00	−0.01	−0.03 – 0.01	−0.02	−0.03 – −0.01
Gender: Female	0.04	−0.27 – 0.36	−0.15	−0.65 – 0.36	−0.19	−0.82 – 0.42	−0.27	−0.58 – 0.05
Party ID: No	1.08	0.76 – 1.40	0.38	−0.12 – 0.89	0.29	−0.36 – 0.94	0.06	−0.26 – 0.38
Party ID: Don't know	0.33	−0.32 – 0.99	0.53	−0.56 – 1.48	0.12	−1.18 – 1.23	−0.22	−0.86 – 0.42
Region: Village	0.47	0.04 – 0.90	0.11	−0.56 – 0.78	2.13	1.29 – 3.01	0.66	0.21 – 1.09
Region: Town < 19999	−0.05	−0.54 – 0.44	−0.24	−1.03 – 0.52	0.72	−0.33 – 1.73	0.05	−0.44 – 0.52
Region: Town 20000–49999	−0.33	−0.86 – 0.20	0.15	−0.59 – 0.88	0.17	−1.03 – 1.28	−0.23	−0.75 – 0.30
Region: Town 50000–99999	0.41	−0.16 – 0.97	−0.02	−0.93 – 0.83	−0.40	−1.93 – 0.95	−0.02	−0.59 – 0.54
Region: Town/City > 500000	−0.44	−1.01 – 0.12	0.10	−0.62 – 0.82	−0.53	−1.92 – 0.69	−0.47	−1.00 – 0.06
Left-right	−0.41	−1.68 – 0.96	−2.50	−3.82 – −1.18	0.69	−0.85 – 2.24	1.41	0.07 – 2.75
Left-right squared	1.18	0.06 – 2.29	−1.21	−2.79 – 0.31	0.35	−1.03 – 1.71	1.96	0.84 – 3.09
Populism * Political knowledge	0.55	−0.97 – 2.10	0.96	−0.69 – 2.58	0.58	−1.14 – 2.29	0.93	−0.56 – 2.43
Populism * SES: Low	0.82	−0.51 – 2.15	0.44	−1.14 – 2.01	−0.06	−1.70 – 1.55	0.19	−1.13 – 1.51
Populism * SES: High	0.04	−1.38 – 1.47	−0.16	−1.70 – 1.37	0.32	−1.39 – 2.04	0.47	−0.93 – 1.87
Political knowledge * SES: Low	−0.81	−2.12 – 0.53	−0.29	−1.87 – 1.29	0.18	−1.43 – 1.79	−0.22	−1.54 – 1.08
Political knowledge * SES: High	−0.58	−1.97 – 0.80	−0.06	−1.53 – 1.41	−0.22	−1.82 – 1.39	0.27	−1.05 – 1.59
Populism * Political knowledge * SES: Low	0.58	−1.05 – 2.22	0.08	−1.72 – 1.88	−0.05	−1.84 – 1.74	−0.34	−1.98 – 1.33
Populism * Political knowledge * SES: High	−0.07	−1.78 – 1.67	−0.03	−1.80 – 1.73	0.09	−1.78 – 1.93	0.91	−0.76 – 2.58
Observations	1733

Notes: The reference category for the dependent variable is Liberal. Reference categories for the dependent variables are SES:Medium, Gender:Male, Party ID: Yes, Region: Town 100000 – 499999. Coefficients in bold are those for which the probability of direction (Bayesian approximation of the p-value) is 95% or greater.

Figure 2. Interactive effects of populism, political knowledge and socio-economic status on vote choice