Comparing public attitudes towards internal and external EU sanctions: the role of populism, trust and Euroscepticism

Figures & data

Table 1. Full sample logits.

	Agreement (Model 1)			Effectiveness (Model 2)
	OR^1	95% CI^1	p-value	OR^1	95% CI^1	p-value
(Intercept)	0.37	0.26, 0.54	<0.001	0.44	0.31, 0.62	<0.001
Treatment: non-EU	1.08	0.76, 1.52	0.7	1.05	0.75, 1.47	0.8
Treatment: Poland	0.95	0.67, 1.36	0.8	0.87	0.62, 1.24	0.4
Populism	1.06	0.61, 1.85	0.8	1.25	0.74, 2.13	0.4
Satisfaction with democracy	0.54	0.39, 0.74	<0.001	0.72	0.53, 0.98	0.036
Support for incumbent govt.	0.53	0.30, 0.93	0.027	0.74	0.43, 1.25	0.3
Institutional trust	1.47	1.05, 2.05	0.024	1.55	1.12, 2.15	0.009
Support for EU membership	4.33	2.51, 7.78	<0.001	2.31	1.39, 3.94	0.002
Gender (ref: male)	1.24	0.93, 1.66	0.15	1.07	0.80, 1.41	0.7
Age	0.95	0.70, 1.30	0.8	0.87	0.64, 1.17	0.4
Political interest	1.1	0.81, 1.51	0.5	1	0.74, 1.35	>0.9
Household finances: good	1.25	0.85, 1.84	0.2	1.35	0.93, 1.96	0.11
Household finances: bad	1.79	1.17, 2.73	0.007	1.56	1.03, 2.35	0.035
Education: middle	1.3	0.93, 1.82	0.13	1.1	0.79, 1.53	0.6
Education: high	1.1	0.74, 1.63	0.6	0.89	0.60, 1.31	0.6
Non-EU * incumbent	1.85	0.92, 3.73	0.084	1.45	0.75, 2.84	0.3
Poland * incumbent	0.51	0.24, 1.09	0.083	0.44	0.21, 0.90	0.025
Non-EU * EU membership	0.67	0.31, 1.48	0.3	1.02	0.48, 2.18	>0.9
Poland * EU membership	0.51	0.23, 1.10	0.087	0.79	0.38, 1.67	0.5
Non-EU * populism	1.87	0.88, 4.02	0.11	1.14	0.55, 2.37	0.7
Poland * populism	1.39	0.65, 2.99	0.4	1.06	0.50, 2.23	0.9

¹ OR = Odds Ratio, CI = Confidence Interval.

Figure 1. Conditional effect of incumbency support and Poland (treatment) on support for EU sanctions.

Table 2. Factors influencing approval of sanctions in individual scenarios.

	Non-EU MS (Model 3)			EU MS (Model 4)			Poland (Model 5)
Characteristic	OR^1	95% CI^1	p-value	OR^1	95% CI^1	p-value	OR^1	95% CI^1	p-value
(Intercept)	0.26	0.15, 0.45	<0.001	0.47	0.28, 0.77	0.003	0.41	0.24, 0.68	<0.001
Populism	2.07	1.22, 3.57	0.008	1.12	0.64, 1.97	0.7	1.47	0.85, 2.55	0.2
Satisfaction with democracy	0.54	0.30, 0.94	0.03	0.59	0.34, 1.01	0.056	0.47	0.27, 0.83	0.01
Support for incumbent govt.	1.15	0.62, 2.15	0.7	0.55	0.28, 1.05	0.072	0.29	0.14, 0.57	<0.001
Institutional trust	1.62	0.91, 2.93	0.11	1.33	0.73, 2.48	0.4	1.38	0.78, 2.48	0.3
Support for EU membership	3.01	1.73, 5.42	<0.001	4.18	2.38, 7.64	<0.001	2.32	1.33, 4.16	0.004
Gender (ref: male)	1.21	0.73, 1.98	0.5	1.35	0.81, 2.27	0.3	1.2	0.72, 2.01	0.5
Age	0.8	0.46, 1.38	0.4	0.91	0.52, 1.61	0.8	1.05	0.62, 1.77	0.9
Political interest	1.51	0.88, 2.62	0.14	1.08	0.62, 1.89	0.8	0.96	0.54, 1.71	0.9
Household finances: good	1.18	0.61, 2.29	0.6	1.15	0.60, 2.20	0.7	1.43	0.68, 2.97	0.3
Household finances: bad	1.76	0.85, 3.66	0.13	1.21	0.54, 2.67	0.6	2.42	1.18, 5.08	0.017
Education: middle	2.56	1.44, 4.61	0.001	0.76	0.41, 1.41	0.4	1.1	0.60, 2.00	0.8
Education: high	1.46	0.73, 2.95	0.3	1.07	0.52, 2.21	0.9	0.78	0.39, 1.56	0.5

¹ OR = Odds Ratio, CI = Confidence Interval.

Table

	Weighted mean	Weighted SD	Min.	Max.	NA
Agreement	3.126	1.118	1	5	0
Effectiveness	3.055	1.029	1	5	0
Satisfaction. Dem.	2.998	1.209	1	5	0
Populism	3.685	0.771	1	5	0
Trust	3.037	0.845	1	5	0
Support for incumbent govt.	2.495	1.248	1	5	0
Support for EU membership	3.821	0.977	1	5	0
Gender (ref: male)	0.523	0.5	0	1	0
Age	48.157	16.756	18	91	0
Political interest	0.348	0.477	0	1	0
Household finances: good	0.193	0.395	0	1	0
Household finances: bad	0.132	0.338	0	1	0
Education: middle	0.352	0.478	0	1	0
Education: high	0.254	0.435	0	1	0

Table

	Estimate	Std. err.	z	p
Factor loadings
f1
pop2	0.72	0.03	24.35	.000
pop3	0.78	0.03	28.86	.000
pop4	0.68	0.03	23.46	.000
pop5	0.76	0.03	26.89	.000
pop6	0.60	0.03	19.72	.000
f2
trust1	0.82	0.03	26.20	.000
trust2	0.72	0.03	21.94	.000
trust3	0.89	0.03	26.68	.000
trust4	0.61	0.03	17.85	.000
Residual Variances
pop1	0.34	0.02	16.80	.000
pop2	0.51	0.03	19.13	.000
pop3	0.34	0.02	16.73	.000
pop4	0.52	0.03	19.45	.000
pop5	0.42	0.02	17.97	.000
pop6	0.64	0.03	20.49	.000
trust1	0.42	0.03	13.89	.000
trust2	0.61	0.03	17.95	.000
trust3	0.46	0.03	13.27	.000
trust4	0.75	0.04	19.82	.000
Latent variances
f1	1.00+
f2	1.00+
Latent covariances
f1 w/f2	−0.14	0.04	−3.80	.000
Fit indices
chi^2	330.16(34)			.000
CFI	0.93
TLI	0.90
RMSEA	0.09