Trust in president – a different case? Individual-level patterns of trust in political executives in Central and Eastern Europe

Figures & data

Table 1. Case selection.

Country	Semi-presidential constitution	Presidential power scores by Doyle and Elgie (2016); Siaroff (2003)
Bulgaria	1991	0.183; 3
Czech Republic	2012	0.257; 2
Lithuania	1992	0.282; 4
Poland	1990	0.241; 3
Romania	1990	0.250; 5
Slovakia	1999	0.189; 2
Slovenia	1992	0.118; 1

Notes: Source for start dates of the semi-presidential constitutions are from Elgie (2011). Sources for presidential power scores: Prespow1 scores by Doyle and Elgie (2016) combine 28 existing measures (see full description in the study by Doyle and Elgie). Scores by Siaroff (2003) are based on constitution and political practice with a minimum of 0 and maximum of 8. Categories: Popularly elected; concurrent election of president and legislature; discretionary appointment powers; chairing of cabinet meetings; right of veto; long-term emergency and/or decree powers; central role in foreign policy; central role in government formation; ability to dissolve the legislature (see full description in the study by Siaroff). The score for the Czech Republic is adjusted with +1 due to direct elections for the president introduced in 2012.

Table 2. Trust in public institutions, mean comparison.

	Bulgaria		Czech Republic		Lithuania		Poland
	2001	2016	2001	2016	2001	2014	2001	2016
President	50.8	18.9	37.6	33.8	56.9	38.6	66.5	28.1
Prime minister	49.0	23.3	28.1	16.5	41.7	22.5	39.6	22.3
Government	–	15.7	–	13.8	–	13.6	–	17.7
Parliament	26.1	10.0	20.8	10.6	12.0	7.8	21.0	16.9
Political parties	25.2	8.3	22.3	9.1	7.6	7.1	9.1	11.6
European union	–	45.5	–	17.6	–	37.4	–	33.7
Army	43.8	41.9	41.9	46.2	35.0	48.8	63.2	54.3
Court	24.6	15.4	35.5	27.4	16.4	26.3	26.7	35.7
Police	31.1	38.0	41.0	37.6	35.3	40.0	37.0	39.0
	Slovakia		Slovenia		Romania
	2001	2016	2001	2016	2001	2016
President	19.2	39.6	45.0	26.6	42.6	22.7
Prime minister	17.5	22.5	35.2	10.3	42.6	17.1
Government	–	18.5	–	7.2	–	11.4
Parliament	8.9	14.8	10.9	7.1	9.4	10.5
Political parties	8.9	11.6	8.6	4.5	9.3	9.5
European Union	–	28.2	–	19.7	–	46.1
Army	41.8	43.3	31.2	42.1	63.2	69.3
Court	15.5	18.6	27.0	22.7	19.5	39.3
Police	20.9	26.6	31.0	44.7	25.6	42.8

Notes: Sources: Social–Political Survey 2016; Baltic Barometer 2014; New Europe Barometer 2001. Values of trust are calculated by including answers between 6 and 10 in a scale of 0 (no trust) to 10 (trust) or between 5 and 7 in a scale of 1 (no trust) to 7 (trust) depending on the specific survey. Values between 0 and 5 and between 1 and 4 are coded as 0 and all other values as missing. The data is weighted for each study. All the variables are correlated with each other at the significant level (p < 0.001) (Pearson’s correlation, not reported).

Figure 1. Trust in president and trust in prime minister, distribution of values, Social–Political Survey 2016.

Table 3. Determinants of trust in president and trust in prime minister in Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Romania, pooled OLS models.

	Dependent: trust in president			Dependent: trust in prime minister
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Age	0.017	0.013	0.009	0.063***	0.061***	0.048***
	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)
Gender	0.016*	0.020**	0.017*	0.011	0.018**	0.011
	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)
Education	−0.037	−0.042*	−0.044*	−0.011	−0.020	−0.029
	(0.021)	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.018)
Income	0.029***	0.020*	0.020**	0.027***	0.009	0.011
	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)
Democracy	0.141***	0.119***	0.111***	0.185***	0.145***	0.131***
	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.007)	(0.008)	(0.008)
Social trust	0.068***	0.061***	0.062***	0.067***	0.055***	0.057***
	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)
Party closeness		0.033***	0.017*		0.048***	0.024***
		(0.008)	(0.008)		(0.007)	(0.007)
Left–right		0.021*	0.008		0.032***	0.021**
		(0.008)	(0.008)		(0.008)	(0.007)
Gov. work		−0.096***	−0.092***		−0.158***	−0.146***
		(0.011)	(0.011)		(0.010)	(0.007)
Party choice			−0.178***			−0.247***
			(0.014)			(0.012)
Country dummies incl.	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Observations	7 400	7400	7 400	7 405	7 405	7 405
R^2	0.112	0.125	0.144	0.142	0.181	0.233
Adjusted R^2	0.110	0.123	0.143	0.140	0.180	0.232

Notes: ***p < 0.001; **p < 0.01; *p < 0.05. Datasets: Social–Political Survey 2016 and Baltic Barometer 2014. Unstandardised beta coefficients are reported with standard errors. Coding: Trust in president/prime minister: no trust – great trust (scale); age: age in numbers (scale); gender: 1 = female, 0 = male (dummy); education: lowest – highest (scale); economic situation, self-evaluation: 1 = gets just enough/definitely enough money from main source of income; 0 = all other values (dummy); satisfaction in democracy: 1 = fairly/very satisfied, 0 = all other values (dummy); social trust/trust in most people in the country: 1 = great trust (values 5–7 on a scale of 1–7), 0 = all other values (dummy); party closeness: 1 = feeling closer to some specific party, 0 = all other values (dummy); left–right self-placement: 1 = right (values 6–10 on a scale of 0–10), 0 = all other values (dummy); party choice: 1 = voted for some other party than the president’s or prime minister’s / did not vote; 0 = voted for the president’s/prime minister’s party (dummy); government’s work, negative opinion: are people treated equally and fairly by the government + how much influence people have on government, 1 = disagrees; 0 = all other values. The variables are standardised on a scale 0–1. Countries are included as dummy variables.

Table 4. Determinants of trust in president and trust in prime minister, country-level OLS models.

	Bulgaria				Czech Republic				Lithuania				Poland
	President		Prime minister		President		Prime minister		President		Prime minister		President		Prime minister
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)	(12)	(13)	(14)	(15)	(16)
Age	−0.009	0.047	−0.067*	−0.004	0.162***	0.136***	0.094***	0.063*	−0.016	−0.007	0.132***	0.143***	0.046	−0.010	0.039	−0.010
	(0.029)	(0.028)	(0.031)	(0.029)	(0.034)	(0.033)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.025)	(0.026)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.030)	(0.029)	(0.028)	(0.027)
Gender	0.022	0.022	0.035	0.026	−0.014	−0.026	0.013	0.015	0.041**	0.041*	0.008	0.010	−0.006	−0.009	0.003	0.001
	(0.017)	(0.016)	(0.019)	(0.016)	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.016)	(0.015)	(0.016)	(0.016)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.019)	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.017)
Education	0.020	−0.033	0.053	−0.045	−0.082*	−0.076*	−0.029	−0.036	−0.034	−0.036	−0.105**	−0.122**	−0.039	−0.015	−0.043	−0.025
	(0.034)	(0.032)	(0.037)	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.032)	(0.026)	(0.025)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.039)	(0.038)	(0.035)	(0.033)	(0.032)	(0.030)
Income	0.033	−0.006	0.036	−0.008	−0.005	0.012	0.045**	0.037*	0.064***	0.059***	0.053***	0.037*	−0.024	−0.030	0.002	−0.007
	(0.026)	(0.024)	(0.028)	(0.024)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.016)	(0.016)	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.021)	(0.020)	(0.019)	(0.019)
Democracy	0.292***	0.183***	0.309***	0.175***	−0.028	−0.014	0.150***	0.131***	0.147***	0.143***	0.116***	0.084***	0.199***	0.130***	0.184***	0.117***
	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.023)	(0.021)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.019)	(0.019)
Social trust	0.065***	0.054**	0.048*	0.035*	0.060*	0.064**	0.041*	0.041*	0.026	0.027	0.070***	0.066***	0.072***	0.048*	0.071***	0.043*
	(0.018)	(0.017)	(0.020)	(0.017)	(0.024)	(0.023)	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.016)	(0.016)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.020)	(0.019)	(0.018)	(0.018)
Party close.		−0.005		−0.008		0.061**		0.049**		−0.008		0.045**		0.007		0.004
		(0.017)		(0.018)		(0.021)		(0.016)		(0.017)		(0.015)		(0.022)		(0.020)
Left–right		0.135***		0.167***		−0.162***		−0.022		0.099***		0.009		0.036		0.055**
		(0.020)		(0.021)		(0.021)		(0.016)		(0.023)		(0.020)		(0.020)		(0.019)
Gov. work		−0.247***		−0.222***		0.018		−0.086***		−0.028		−0.169***		−0.087***		−0.097***
		(0.028)		(0.029)		(0.033)		(0.026)		(0.023)		(0.021)		(0.026)		(0.025)
Party choice		−0.076**		−0.195***		−0.098**
(0.032)		−0.176***		-		−0.248***		−0.244***		−0.207***
		(0.024)		(0.024)				(0.025)				(0.012)		(0.025)		(0.023)
Observations	957	957	980	980	1 003	1 003	990	990	1 450	1 450	1 448	1 448	995	995	994	994
R^2	0.206	0.341	0.201	0.405	0.035	0.110	0.112	0.181	0.075	0.087	0.094	0.139	0.121	0.236	0.128	0.239
Adjusted R^2	0.201	0.334	0.196	0.399	0.029	0.101	0.107	0.172	0.071	0.081	0.090	0.134	0.116	0.228	0.123	0.231

	Romania				Slovakia				Slovenia
	President		Prime minister		President		Prime minister		President		Prime minister
	(17)	(18)	(19)	(20)	(21)	(22)	(23)	(24)	(25)	(26)	(27)	(28)
Age	−0.045	−0.035	0.019	0.033	−0.010	−0.007	0.156***	0.070**	0.024	0.006	0.048*	0.029
	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.031)	(0.031)	(0.029)	(0.027)	(0.029)	(0.030)	(0.023)	(0.023)
Gender	−0.005	0.005	0.026	0.035	0.032	0.036	0.014	0.014	0.018	0.026	−0.019	−0.012
	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.018)	(0.016)	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.014)	(0.014)
Education	−0.062	−0.061	0.035	0.034	0.026	0.020	−0.032	−0.036	0.002	0.001	0.041	0.032
	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.039)	(0.035)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.027)	(0.026)
Income	0.023	0.003	0.069**	0.047	0.053*	0.049*	−0.034	−0.033	0.033	0.030	0.011	0.002
	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.025)	(0.025)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.019)	(0.018)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.015)	(0.014)
Democracy	0.174***	0.146***	0.156***	0.131***	0.111***	0.079***	0.223***	0.153***	0.152***	0.122***	0.200***	0.164***
	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.020)	(0.022)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.017)	(0.017)
Social trust	0.096***	0.093***	0.064**	0.062**	0.106***	0.092***	0.059**	0.049**	0.075***	0.059**	0.121***	0.100***
	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.020)	(0.019)	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.016)	(0.015)
Party close.		0.007		−0.011		−0.0004		0.033		0.057*		0.063***
		(0.023)		(0.021)		(0.019)		(0.017)		(0.023)		(0.017)
Left–right		0.025		0.059**		−0.030		−0.060***		−0.029		−0.031
		(0.023)		(0.022)		(0.019)		(0.017)		(0.027)		(0.020)
Gov. work		−0.152***		−0.144***		−0.121***		−0.142***		−0.136***		−0.176***
		(0.031)		(0.029)		(0.029)		(0.025)		(0.030)		(0.023)
Party choice		-		-		-		−0.275***		−0.055		−208***
(0.034)
								(0.025)		(0.034)
Observations	972	972	970	970	1 017	1 017	1 015	1 015	1 006	1 006	1 008	1 008
R^2	0.075	0.100	0.066	0.098	0.081	0.099	0.161	0.313	0.082	0.111	0.209	0.297
Adjusted R^2	0.070	0.092	0.060	0.090	0.076	0.091	0.156	0.306	0.076	0.102	0.204	0.290

Notes: ***p < 0.001; **p < 0.01; *p < 0.05. Datasets: Social–Political Survey 2016 and Baltic Barometer 2014. Unstandardised beta coefficients are reported with standard errors. Coding: Trust in president/prime minister: no trust – great trust (scale); age: age in numbers (scale); gender: 1 = female, 0 = male (dummy); education: lowest–highest (scale); economic situation, self-evaluation: 1 = gets just enough/definitely enough money from main source of income; 0 = all other values (dummy); satisfaction in democracy: 1 = fairly/very satisfied, 0 = all other values (dummy); social trust/trust in most people in the country: 1 = great trust (values 5–7 on a scale of 1–7), 0 = all other values (dummy); party closeness: 1 = feeling closer to some specific party, 0 = all other values (dummy); left–right self-placement: 1 = right (values 6–10 on a scale of 0–10), 0 = all other values (dummy); party choice: 1 = voted for some other party than the president’s or prime minister’s/did not vote; 0 = voted for the president’s/prime minister’s party (dummy); government’s work, negative opinion: are people treated equally and fairly by the government + how much influence people have on government, 1 = disagrees; 0 = all other values. The variables are standardised on a scale 0–1.

Table A1. Determinants of trust in president and trust in prime minister, New Europe Barometer (2001), country-level OLS models.

	Bulgaria		Czech Republic		Lithuania		Poland		Romania		Slovakia		Slovenia
	President	Prime minister	President	Prime minister	President	Prime minister	President	Prime minister	President	Prime minister	President	Prime minister	President	Prime minister
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)	(12)	(13)	(14)
Age	0.005	−0.035	−0.024	0.041	0.076	−0.001	0.110**	0.254***	0.031	0.051	0.031	0.048	0.233***	0.234***
	(0.038)	(0.036)	(0.039)	(0.035)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.040)	(0.041)	(0.040)	(0.040)	(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.038)	(0.035)
Gender	0.066**	0.073***	0.027	0.013	0.016	0.009	0.020	0.023	0.014	0.008	0.027	0.003	0.027	0.033*
	(0.020)	(0.019)	(0.018)	(0.016)	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.018)	(0.019)	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.015)
Education	−0.027	−0.060	0.038	−0.042	−0.059	−0.066	0.013	−0.007	−0.126***	−0.044	−0.038	0.064*	−0.031	−0.057*
	(0.034)	(0.032)	(0.039)	(0.035)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.028)	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.025)	(0.023)
Income	0.026	0.011	0.060**	0.017	0.038*	−0.002	0.033	0.031	0.042*	0.028	0.030	0.063**	0.026	0.029
	(0.027)	(0.025)	(0.020)	(0.018)	(0.019)	(0.018)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.020)	(0.019)	(0.018)	(0.016)
Democracy	0.111***	0.071**	0.138***	0.073***	0.100***	0.039*	0.057**	0.094***	0.144***	0.127***	0.103***	0.137***	0.123***	0.109***
	(0.023)	(0.022)	(0.020)	(0.018)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.018)	(0.016)
Social trust	0.042	0.063**	0.114***	0.089***	0.073***	0.053**	0.061**	0.075***	0.105***	0.092***	0.091***	0.052**	0.146***	0.131***
	(0.021)	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.017)	(0.019)	(0.020)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.017)
Gov. work	−0.054*	−0.018	−0.137***	−0.050*	−0.082***	0.018	−0.022	−0.043	−0.106***	−0.097***	−0.065***	−0.136***	−0.090***	−0.092***
	(0.024)	(0.023)	(0.025)	(0.023)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.018)	(0.017)	(0.023)	(0.021)
Party choice	-	−0.141***	-	-0.176***	-	−0.248***	−0.011 (0.019)	0.073	−0.262***	−0.214***	−0.216***	−0.094	-	-0.166***
		(0.022)		(0.020)		(0.019)		(0.040)	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.065)	(0.064)		(0.018)
Observations	1 149	1 151	1 071	1 058	1 124	1 124	972	882	985	985	991	985	1 059	1 057
R^2	0.043	0.069	0.159	0.128	0.091	0.142	0.036	0.100	0.329	0.256	0.098	0.176	0.190	0.276
Adjusted R^2	0.038	0.063	0.153	0.121	0.086	0.136	0.029	0.091	0.323	0.250	0.090	0.169	0.184	0.270

Notes: ***p < 0.001; **p < 0.01; *p < 0.05. Dataset: New Europe Barometer 2001. Unstandardised beta coefficients are reported with standard errors. Coding: Trust in president/prime minister: no trust – great trust (scale); age: age in numbers (scale); gender: 1 = female, 0 = male (dummy); education: lowest – highest (scale); income, household: 1 = highest/second highest; 0 = all other values (dummy); satisfaction in democracy: 1 = fairly/very satisfied, 0 = all other values (dummy); social trust/trust in most people in the country: 1 = great trust (values 5–7 on a scale of 1–7), 0 = all other values (dummy); party choice: 1 = voted for some other party than the president’s or prime minister’s/did not vote; 0 = voted for the president’s/prime minister’s party (dummy); government’s work, negative opinion: rating current system of governing 1 = worse (values from −100 to −1 on a scale of −100 to 100); 0 = better (values 1 to 100). The variables are standardised on a scale 0–1. Party closeness and left–right orientation are not included.

Table A2. Determinants of trust in president and trust in government, Finnish National Election Study (2019), OLS models.

	Finland
	President		Government
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Age	0.102***	0.078***	0.074***	0.028
	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.021)	(0.021)
Gender	0.022*	0.023**	0.017	0.017
	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.010)	(0.009)
Education	−0.078***	−0.087***	0.056*	0.059**
	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.022)	(0.022)
Income	0.034***	0.030**	0.038***	0.034***
	(0.010)	(0.009)	(0.010)	(0.010)
Democracy	0.098***	0.085***	0.165***	0.142***
	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.011)	(0.011)
Social trust	0.058***	0.057***	0.094***	0.089***
	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.011)	(0.011)
Party closeness		−0.006		0.026**
		(0.009)		(0.009)
Left–right		0.001		0.015
		(0.013)		(0.014)
Gov. work		−0.046***		−0.076***
		(0.009)		(0.010)
Party choice		−0.061***		−0.050***
		(0.015)		(0.015)
Observations	1570	1570	1570	1570
R^2	0.139	0.165	0.225	0.260
Adjusted R^2	0.136	0.160	0.222	0.255

Notes: ***p < 0.001; **p < 0.01; *p < 0.05. Dataset: Finnish National Election Study 2019. Unstandardised beta coefficients are reported with standard errors. Coding: trust in president/government: no trust – great trust (scale); age: year of birth (scale, reverse-coded); gender: 1 = female, 0 = male (dummy); education: lowest – highest (scale); income, self-evaluation of the economic situation: 1 = satisfied, 0 = all other values (dummy); satisfaction in democracy: 1 = fairly/very satisfied, 0 = all other values (dummy); social trust/general trust in people: 1 = great trust (values 6–10 on a scale of 0–10), 0 = all other values (dummy); party closeness: 1 = feeling closer to some specific party, 0 = all other values (dummy); left–right self-placement: 1 = right (values 6–10 on a scale of 0–10), 0 = all other values (dummy); party choice: 1 = voted for some other party than the president’s or prime minister’s/did not vote; 0 = voted for the president’s/prime minister’s party (dummy); government’s work, negative opinion: performance of the previous government: 1 = performed very/quite badly, 0 = all other values. The variables are standardised on a scale 0–1. Trust in prime minister is replaced with trust in government.

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