Climate variability and vulnerability to poverty in Nicaragua

Figures & data

Table 1. Poverty trends in Nicaragua (2005–09).

	2005			2009
Indicators	National	Urban	Rural	National	Urban	Rural
Non-Poor	51.7	69.1	27.7	67.1	80.4	46.0
General Poverty	48.3	30.9	70.3	32.9	19.6	54.4
Extreme Poverty	17.2	6.5	30.5	9.7	4.4	18.2
Gini Coefficient	0.405			0.371

Authors’ calculations based on the World Bank (2005, 2009).

Table 2. Nicaragua–Poverty characteristics (2009).

	General Poverty	Extreme Poverty
Types of labour income
Employed in agriculture	68.2	28.1
Self-employed in agriculture	63.7	28.1
Employed in non-agriculture	25.4	2.6
Self-employed in non-agriculture	27.5	7.3
Employment status
Employed	42.3	14.5
Formal	18.9	1.2
Informal	46.2	16.7
Unemployed	40.6	12.7
Inactive	43.5	15.4

Note: Type of labour income and employment status correspond to the characteristics of the household head.

Data is presented as percentages of the total population considered poor.

Source: Authors’ calculations based on the LSMS 2009.

Table 3 Descriptive statistics (values in Córdobas).

Variable	Obs	Mean	Std. Dev.	Min	Max
Transfers per Capita (Cord.)	6.515	2.021	14.599	0.00	813.665
Remittances per Capita (Cord.)	6.515	795	468	0.00	188,160
Capital Income per Capita (Cord.)	6.515	1.288	22.472	5,88	1,669
Capital Stock per Capita (Cord.)	6.515	2.161	125.571	0.00	999.998
Consumption per Capita (Cord.)	6.515	22.508	18.486	1,955.02	229.494
Education Household Head (yrs)	6.502	6,38	4,88	0,00	23,00
Household Unemployment Rate (%)	6.383	28,56	27,84	0,00	100
Household Dependency Ratio (ppl under 13 yrs and over 60yrs)	6.515	0,62	0,57	0,00	6,00
Household Illiteracy Rate (number of people who cannot read or write)	6.515	11,29	22,65	0,00	1,00
Lack of Access to Information (no spending on information; eg. newspapers)	6.515	0,25	0,43	0,00	1,00
Overcrowding (> 3 people/room)	6.510	0,52	0,49	0,00	1,00
Lack of Access to Basic Services	6.515	0,45	0,49	0,00	1,00
Rural Area (D = 1)	6.515	0,26	0,44	0,00	1,00
Precipitation Changes (Over 8 Years)	6.515	-3,90	7,44	−17,16	25,68
Agricultural Occupancy (%)	6.515	13,81	15,02	3,79	50,87

Source: Authors’ calculation based on the LSMS 2009 and INETER 2000–2009.

Note: 2009 Exchange rate USD1 = COR 20,80.

Graph 1. Nicaragua – Precipitation National Averages (2001-09 periods). Source: Author's calculation based on INETER data.

Table 4. Nicaragua-Changes in temperature by department (2001–09 period).

Department	Temperature changes (2001–09)
Nueva Segovia	0.2083321
Jinotega	0.3750000
Madriz	0.2270832
Estelí	0.1000004
Chinandega	0.2250004
León	0.1333332
Matagalpa	−0.0291672
Boaco	0.2174995
Managua	0.291666
Masaya	−0.0375004
Chontales	0.4499989
Granada	0.2583332
Carazo	0.1552081
Rivas	0.1083336
Río San Juan	0.3500004
RAAN	0.2666664
RAAS	0.1166668

Source: Author's calculation based on INETER data.

Note: Temperatures are in Celsius Degrees.

Table 5. Effects of precipitation change on households’ consumption.

	OLS MODEL		HIERARCHICAL MODEL
Explanatory variables	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4
Fixed Part
Household Characteristics
Rural Area	0.013	−0.055***	−0.052***	−0.053***
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.02)	(0.02)
Years of Education Head of Household	0.022***	0.018***	0.018***	0.018***
	(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)
Household Unemployment Rate	−0.002***	−0.003***	−0.003***	−0.003***
	(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)
Household Dependency Rate	−0.100***	−0.098***	−0.096***	−0.095***
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
Household Illiteracy Rate	−0.001**	−0.001*	0	0
	(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)
Lack of Access to Information	−0.135***	−0.079***	−0.079**	−0.079**
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.03)	(0.03)
Overcrowding	−0.111***	−0.059***	−0.061***	−0.061***
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.02)	(0.01)
Lack of Access to Basic Services	−0.115***	−0.054***	−0.052***	−0.052***
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.02)	(0.02)
Log (Capital Income)	0.286***	0.256***	0.258***	0.258***
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0)	(0)
Log (Remittances per Capita)	0.015***	0.011***	0.011***	0.011***
	(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)
Log (Transfer per Capita)	0.001	0	0	0
	(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)
Main source of Income from a Tradable Sector	−	−0.085***	−0.085***	−0.085***
		(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
Housing Conditions	−	−0.030**	−0.028**	−0.028**
		(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
Log (Capital Stock)	−	0.076***	0.077***	0.078***
		(0)	(0.02)	(0.02)
Departmental Characteristics
Change in Precipitation (8 years)	−	−0.016***	−0.022***	−0.022***
		(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
% Agricultural Occupancy	−	−	−	−0.001*
				(0)
% Education Program Coverage	−	0.115	0.117	0.105
		(0.1)	(0.08)	(0.09)
% Health Program Coverage	−	0.361***	0.340***	0.271*
		(0.09)	(0.08)	(0.14)
Population Density	−	0.054	0.059	−0.039
		(0.07)	(0.17)	(0.23)
Interactions
% Health P. Coverage* Change in Precipitation	−	0.022**	0.029***	0.030***
		(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
constant	8.344***	7.638***	7.641***	7.728***
	(0.03)	(0.09)	(0.22)	(0.21)
Random Part
Cons (Random intercept var)	−	−	0.001	0.001
			(0.001)	(0.001)
% of explained variance			0.009	0.009
Change in precipitation (Random slope var)	−	−	0	0
			(0)	(0)
% of explained variance			0	0
Goodness of fit
−2*Log Likelihood	−	−	123605.12	123379.42
X2 – Change in comparison with previous models	−	−		−225.7
AIC	−	4029.83	123651.1	123427.4
BIC	−	4163.28	123804.6	123587.6
N (households)	6365	5839	5839	5839
N (departments)	17	17	17	17
r^2	0.65	0.696	−	−
Potential Poverty	40.59	47.30	47.09	47.14

Figures in parentheses are robust standard errors; ***p<0.001, **p<0.01, * p<0.05.

Note: No multicollinearity issue was registered in the models (see: Appendix 3).

Source: World Bank (2013) based on the LSMS 2009.

Table

	OLS Model		HIERARCHICAL MODEL
Explanatory variables	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4
Fixed Part
Household Characteristics
Rural Area	0.012	−0.058***	−0.056***	−0.055***
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.02)	(0.02)
Years of Education Head of Household	0.021***	0.018***	0.018***	0.018***
	(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)
Household Unemployment Rate	−0.002***	−0.003***	−0.003***	−0.003***
	(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)
Household Dependency Rate	−0.099***	−0.096***	−0.094***	−0.093***
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
Household Illiteracy Rate	−0.001**	−0.000*	0	0
	(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)
Lack of Access to Information	−0.135***	−0.088***	−0.087**	−0.088**
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.03)	(0.03)
Overcrowding	−0.112***	−0.060***	−0.061***	−0.061***
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
Lack of Access to Basic Services	−0.118***	−0.058***	−0.056***	−0.057***
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.02)	(0.02)
Log (Capital Income)	0.287***	0.256***	0.257***	0.257***
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0)	(0)
Log (Remittances per Capita)	0.015***	0.010***	0.011***	0.011***
	(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)
Log (Transfer per Capita)	0.001	0	0	0
	(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)
Main source of Income from a Tradeable Sector	–	−0.088***	−0.088***	−0.089***
		(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
Housing Conditions	–	−0.029**	−0.028**	−0.028**
		(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
Log (Capital Stock)	–	0.075***	0.076***	0.076***
		(0)	(0.02)	(0.02)
Departmental Characteristics
Temperature Change (8 years)	–	−0.688**	−0.551*	−0.743*
		(0.31)	(0.34)	(0.41)
% Agricultural Occupancy	–	–	–	0.001
				(0)
% Education Program Covered	–	0.161*	0.138**	0.126
		(0.09)	(0.07)	(0.08)
% Health Program Covered	–	0.241***	0.276***	0.173
		(0.09)	(0.07)	(0.15)
Population Density	–	0.012	−0.035	−0.2
		(0.09)	(0.31)	(0.25)
Interactions
% Health P. Covered* Change in temperature	–	0.770*	0.488	0.841
		(0.42)	(0.5)	(0.67)
cons	8.344***	7.747***	7.731***	7.836***
	(0.03)	(0.09)	(0.21	(0.14)
Random Part
Cons (Random intercept var)	–	–	0	0
			(0)	.
% of explained variance			0.000	0
Temperature Change (Random slope var)	–	–	0.04	0.038
			(0.013)	(0.013)
% of explained variance			0.258	0.248
Goodness of fit
−2*Log Likelihood	–	–	129924.72	129707.2
X2 - Change in comparison with previous models	–	–	–	−217.52
AIC	–	4189.77	129968.70	129753.70
BIC	–	4323.96	130116.30	129907.50
N (households)	6365	5839	5839	5839
N (departments)	17	17	17	17
r^2	0.649	0.698	–	–
Potential Poverty	40.59	42.8	42.93	42.58

Figures in parentheses are standard errors; ***p<0.001, **p<0.01, * p<0.05

Table

	Variance Inflation Factor
	Model 1		Model 2
Variable	VIF	1/VIF	VIF	1/VIF
Lack of Access to Basic Services	1.87	0.5347	1.96	0.5099
Log (Capital Income)	1.68	0.5939	1.85	0.5408
Years of Education Head of Household	1.64	0.6111	1.65	0.6047
Rural Area	1.52	0.6558	1.77	0.5655
Household Illiteracy Rate	1.4	0.7123	1.41	0.7078
Lack of Access to Information	1.32	0.7566	1.33	0.7524
Overcrowding	1.31	0.7623	1.42	0.7043
Household Dependency Rate	1.13	0.8857	1.14	0.8757
Log (Remittances per Capita)	1.07	0.9316	1.06	0.9433
Log (Transfer per Capita)	1.05	0.9569	1.05	0.9511
Household Unemployment Rate	1.03	0.9665	1.04	0.9589
Main source of Income from a Tradable Sector	–	–	1.27	0.7875
Housing Conditions	–	–	1.50	0.6687
Log (Capital Stock)	–	–	1.33	0.7519
Population Density	–	–	2.12	0.4712
% Education Program Covered	–	–	3.46	0.2894
% Health Program Covered	–	–	2.76	0.3621
% Health P. Covered* Change in Precipitation	–	–	77.38	0.0129
Change in Precipitation (8 years)	–	–	72.13	0.0139
Mean VIF	1.37		9.35

Table

Year	Event
1997	El Niño
1998	Hurricane Mitch
2001	Drought
2002	El Niño
2004	El Niño
2006	El Niño
2006	Tropical storms
2007	Hurricane Felix
2009	Drought
2011	Tropical storms
2014	El Niño

Source: Author's analysis based on INETER data. INETER is referenced as an online source.

Table

	# of Farmers		Access to water
	Numbers	%	Has access	Uses water
0–1 Ha	57,588	22%	1.80%	1.50%
1–2 Ha	31,694	12%	3.90%	3.40%
2–5 Ha	49,528	19%	5.10%	4.40%
5–20 Ha	60,020	23%	5.90%	5.20%
20–100 Ha	51,781	20%	4.60%	4.10%
>100 Ha	11,932	5%	6.90%	6.00%
Total	262,543	100%	4.40%	3.84%

Source: Zegarra and Chirinos (2016), p. 19.

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