Estimating the basic reproductive number of varicella in South Korea incorporating social contact patterns and seroprevalence

Figures & data

Figure 1. Who-Acquired-Infection-From-Whom matrices (a) and age-specific VZV seroprevalence data with model prediction and corresponding age-specific force of infection (b)

Figure 2. Changes in critical vaccine coverage according to changes in varicella primary vaccine failure for the estimated basic reproductive number (${\mathrm{R}}_0$) of the base case (a) and those of all sensitivity analyses (b)

Table 1. Estimated proportionality factor ($\mathrm{q}$) and basic reproductive number (${\mathrm{R}}_0$) for varicella with the 95% confidence interval as a result of the sensitivity analysis. The proportionality factor for physical contact matrix is represented as ${\mathrm{q}}_{\mathrm{p}}$, and the one for nonphysical contact matrix is done as ${\mathrm{q}}_{\mathrm{n}\mathrm{p}}$. Cases were varied by data and methods: contact survey data, varicella seroprevalence, and approaches to generate the WAIFW matrices

			${\mathrm{q}}_{\mathrm{p}}$	${\mathrm{q}}_{\mathrm{n}\mathrm{p}}$	${\mathrm{R}}_0$	95% CI
Base case			0.045	3.13e-19	5.67	5.33, 6.33
Sensitivity analyses
Contact survey		GB	0.051	1.67e-16	5.46	4.97, 6.29
		Belgium	0.053	7.85e-18	6.09	5.46, 7.21
Seroprevalence		Japanese seroprevalence	0.039	1.78e-16	4.93	4.57, 5.64
Methods		Case 1	0.039^†	-	6.63	6.13, 7.28
		Case 2	0.13	1.39e-16	6.45	6.06, 7.32