The performance of football club managers: skill or luck?

Figures & data

Figure 1. Number of points awarded versus weekly wages.

Table 1. Estimation results for model including team characteristics and manager fixed effects

		Ordered probit
Variable	OLS estimates	estimates
Injuries	−0.040 (0.011)***	−0.039 (0.011)***
Suspensions	−0.104 (0.043)**	−0.107 (0.046)**
Unavailable	−0.136 (0.064)**	−0.126 (0.078)*
Total wages	0.007 (0.002)***	0.008 (0.002)***
Net transfer spend	−0.001 (0.002)	−0.001 (0.002)
Extra games	−0.001 (0.006)	−0.001 (0.005)
Injuriesopp	0.044 (0.010)***	0.045 (0.010)***
Suspensionsopp	0.099 (0.043)**	0.096 (0.045)**
Unavailableopp	0.076 (0.062)	0.113 (0.074)
Total wagesopp	−0.009 (0.001)***	−0.009 (0.001)***
Net transfer spendopp	−0.0001 (0.001)	−0.0007 (0.001)
Extra gamesopp	−0.016 (0.004)***	−0.016 (0.004)***
R^2 or pseudo-R^2	0.20	0.21

Notes: The model estimated is The dependent variable is the number of points scored in match t by manager i; 60 manager dummy variables are also included in the model, but the estimates are not shown.

*Significance at the 10% level.

**Significance at the 5% level.

***Significance at the 1% level.

Table 2. Manager performance according to the bootstrap approach

	Actual average	Number of	Expected number of	Actual	Is the manager's	% random
	number of	games	points based on	points-expected	performance above, below	draws
Manager	points	managed	the bootstrap	points	or at expectations?	better
Aidy Boothroyd	0.74	38	0.98	−0.24	Expected	94.93
Alain Perrin	0.90	20	1.10	−0.2	Expected	74.71
Alan Curbishley	1.28	100	1.09	0.19	Expected	8.57
Alan Pardew	1.23	74	1.10	0.13	Expected	20.59
Alex Ferguson	2.24	190	1.52	0.72	Above	0.00
Alex McLeish	1.00	24	0.92	0.08	Expected	32.05
Arsène Wenger	1.96	190	1.39	0.57	Above	0.00
Avram Grant	2.31	32	1.96	0.35	Above	2.27
Billy Davies	0.46	13	0.93	−0.47	Below	99.99
Bobby Robson	0.50	4	1.35	−0.85	Below	99.99
Bryan Robson	0.86	65	1.04	−0.18	Expected	90.19
Chris Coleman	1.17	109	1.04	0.13	Expected	15.31
Chris Hutchings	0.67	12	0.98	−0.31	Expected	80.79
David Moyes	1.56	190	1.02	0.54	Above	0.00
David O'Leary	1.17	76	1.10	0.07	Expected	30.85
Gareth Southgate	1.05	133	0.92	0.13	Expected	10.94
Gary Megson	1.07	76	1.00	0.07	Expected	33.91
Gianfranco Zola	1.29	35	1.13	0.16	Expected	22.81
Glenn Roeder	1.42	52	1.15	0.27	Expected	8.16
Graeme Souness	1.12	60	1.18	−0.06	Expected	64.36
Guus Hiddink	2.61	13	1.89	0.72	Above	0.00
Harry Redknapp	1.40	173	1.07	0.33	Above	0.13
Iain Dowie	0.93	85	1.05	−0.12	Expected	83.32
Jacques Santini	1.18	11	1.03	0.15	Expected	35.09
Joe Kinnear	0.86	35	1.06	−0.2	Expected	88.39
José Mourinho	2.33	120	1.77	0.56	Above	0.00
Juande Ramos	1.17	35	1.06	0.11	Expected	30.96
Kevin Ball	0.50	10	0.95	−0.45	Below	97.35
Kevin Keegan	1.16	49	1.08	0.08	Expected	33.72
Lawrie Sanchez	0.65	20	0.81	−0.16	Expected	79.57
Les Reed	0.57	7	1.11	−0.54	Expected	90.61
Luiz Felipe Scolari	1.96	25	1.90	0.06	Expected	41.52
Mark Hughes	1.42	185	1.09	0.33	Above	0.03
Martin Jol	1.51	113	1.10	0.41	Above	0.01
Martin O'Neill	1.51	114	1.08	0.43	Above	0.02
Mick McCarthy	0.36	28	0.88	−0.52	Below	99.99
Neil Warnock	1.00	38	0.92	0.08	Expected	31.79
Nigel Worthington	0.87	38	1.02	−0.15	Expected	78.64
Paul Hart	1.08	12	1.15	−0.07	Expected	53.92
Paul Ince	0.76	17	0.94	−0.18	Expected	76.30
Paul Jewell	0.93	101	0.96	−0.03	Expected	57.43
Paul Sturrock	1.50	2	1.15	0.35	Expected	25.05
Phil Brown	0.92	38	0.88	0.04	Expected	41.11
Rafa Benítez	1.95	190	1.39	0.56	Above	0.00
Ricky Sbragia	0.74	19	0.97	−0.23	Expected	82.45
Roy Hodgson	1.32	57	1.01	0.31	Above	3.71
Roy Keane	1.02	53	0.92	0.1	Expected	28.67
Sam Allardyce	1.45	154	1.08	0.37	Above	0.00
Sammy Lee	0.55	11	1.04	−0.49	Below	99.32
Steve Bruce	1.09	150	0.99	0.1	Expected	17.24
Steve Coppell	1.20	76	0.95	0.25	Expected	5.97
Steve McClaren	1.42	57	0.99	0.43	Above	0.54
Steve Wigley	0.64	14	1.03	−0.39	Below	97.96
Stuart Pearce	1.19	85	1.10	0.09	Expected	27.17
Sven-Göran Eriksson	1.45	38	1.13	0.32	Expected	6.76
Tony Adams	0.67	15	1.14	−0.47	Below	98.59
Tony Mowbray	0.84	38	0.82	0.02	Expected	45.78
Tony Pulis	1.18	38	0.86	0.32	Expected	6.04
Velimir Zajec	0.62	13	0.88	−0.26	Expected	80.49
No Manager	1.37	30	0.95	0.42	Above	4.05

Table 3. A list of managers sacked (left panel) and resigned (right panel) from EPL teams 2004–2009

	Sackings		Resignations
Season	Club	Manager	Club	Manager
2004/05	Southampton	Paul Sturrock	Man City	Kevin Keegan
	Newcastle	Bobby Robson	Tottenham	Jacques Santini
	Blackburn	Graeme Souness	Portsmouth	Harry Redknapp
	West Brom	Gary Megson	Portsmouth	Velimir Zajec
	Southampton	Steve Wigley
2005/06	Portsmouth	Alain Perrin	Charlton	Alan Curbishley
	Newcastle	Graeme Souness	Middlesbro	Steve McClaren
	Sunderland	Mick McCarthy
2006/07	Aston Villa	David O'Leary	Bolton	Sam Allardyce
	Charlton	Iain Dowie	Wigan	Paul Jewell
	West Ham	Alan Pardew	Sheff Utd	Neil Warnock
	Fulham	Chris Coleman	Charlton	Les Reed
	Newcastle	Glenn Roeder
	Man City	Stuart Pearce
2007/08	Chelsea	José Mourinho	Blackburn	Mark Hughes
	Bolton	Sammy Lee	Birmingham	Steve Bruce
	Tottenham	Martin Jol
	Wigan	Chris Hutchings
	Derby	Billy Davies
	Fulham	Lawrie Sanchez
	Newcastle	Sam Allardyce
	Chelsea	Avram Grant
	Man City	Sven-Göran Eriksson
2008/09	Tottenham	Juande Ramos	West Ham	Alan Curbishley
	Blackburn	Paul Ince	Wigan	Steve Bruce
	Portsmouth	Tony Adams	Portsmouth	Harry Redknapp
	Chelsea	Luiz Felipe Scolari	Sunderland	Roy Keane
			Newcastle	Kevin Keegan
			West Brom	Tony Mowbray
			Sunderland	Ricky Sbragia
			Newcastle	Joe Kinnear
			Chelsea	Guus Hiddink

Figure 2. Bootstrap results for Arsène Wenger.

Note: The figure plots the percentage of times that the manager was outperformed by a randomized manager in the recursive bootstrap.

Figure 3. Bootstrap results for Martin Jol.

Note: The figure plots the percentage of times that the manager was outperformed by a randomized manager in the recursive bootstrap.

Figure 4. Bootstrap results for Graeme Souness.

Note: The figure plots the percentage of times that the manager was outperformed by a randomized manager in the recursive bootstrap.

Figure 5. Bootstrap results for Aidy Boothroyd.

Note: The figure plots the percentage of times that the manager was outperformed by a randomized manager in the recursive bootstrap.