The criticality of transport and export activities in the economic prosperity of high-middle income countries: the role of logistics performance

Figures & data

Table 1. Studies on ELG.

No.	Studies	Methodology	Data Set	Main Causality Conclusions
1.	Darrat (1986)	Granger Causality (GC)	(1960–1982) GDP, Export	GDP →EX (Taiwan) GDP≠ EX (Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore)
2.	Bahmani-Oskooee and Alse (1993)	GC method	GDP, Export	GDP↔EX (Indonesia and South Korea) GDP≠EX (Colombia, Greece, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Africa, Thailand)
3.	A. R. Khan and Qianli (2017)	ARDL estimation and Diagnostics tests	(1981–2016) Green LP, FDI, Renewable Energy, GDP	Green LP↔Renewable Energy (Short Term) FDI,GDP,Renewable Energy↔ Green LP (Long Term) (England)
4.	Kwan and Kwok (1995)	GC method	(1956–1985) GDP, FDI, EX, Labor Force	EX→GDP (China)
5.	J. Ahmad and Harnhirun (1996)	Cointegration (C) and GC	(1966–1989) GDP, EX	GDP →EX (ASEAN)
6.	Shan and Sun (1998)	Toda-Yamamoto Causality and VAR Analysis	(1978–1996) GDP, EX, IM, Labor Force, Investment, Energy Consumption	EX→GDP (Taiwan) GDP↔EX (Hong Kong and South Korea)
7.	Jordan and Fiona (1998)	Toda-Yamamoto Causality and VAR Analysis	(1978–1996) GDP, EX, IM, Labor Force, Investment, Energy Consumption	EX→GDP (China)
8.	Ibrahim (2002)	C and GC	(1960–1997) GDP, EX, IM, Investment, Public Spending	EX→GDP (Malaysia)
9.	Love and Chandra (2005)	Engle-Granger C and GC	GDP, EX	EX → GDP (Nepal, India, & Maldives) GDP → EX (Bangladesh) GDP ≠ EX (Sri Lanka, Bhutan & Pakistan)
10.	Afzal (2006)	C and GC	GDP, EX, IM	EX ↔ GDP (Pakistan)
11.	Furuoka (2007)	C and GC. Pooled OLS Regression	(1985–2005) GDP, EX	GDP≠EX (Malaysia, Philippines and Indonesia)
12.	Tan et al. (2007)	The vector error correction model and GC	(1958–1997) GDP, EX, Fixed Capital Formation	EX → GDP (Korea & Taiwan) GDP → EX (Singapore)
13.	Parida and Sahoo (2007)	Cointegration estimation	(1980–2002) GDP, EX, IM, Investment, Public Spending	EX → GDP (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka)
14.	Tang (2008)	VECM, GC, and DOLS	(1970–2006) GDP, EX, FDI	FDI and EX → GDP (Malaysia)
15.	Dash (2009)	C and GC	(1992–2007) GDP, EX, IM, Real Exchange Rate	EX→GDP (India)
16.	Tiwari (2011)	OLS Causality and Cobb-Douglas	(1995–2008) GDP, EX, FDI, Investment, Tourism	GDP≠ EX (India, China, Pakistan and Russia)
17.	Adnan Hye et al. (2013)	ARDL and GC	(1960– 2009) GDP, EX	EX → GDP (Bhutan & Sri Lanka) GDP ≠ EX (Bangladesh, India, Nepal & Pakistan)
18.	Tang (2013)	GC methods	(1975–2010) GDP, EX, IM	EX and IM ↔ GDP (Malaysia)
19.	Tang et al. (2015)	Cointegration, VAR, MWALD Causality	GDP, EX, Real Exchange Rate	GDP → EX (Korea & Taiwan) EX ↔ GDP (Hong Kong & Singapore)
20.	Abosedra and Tang (2019)	GC methods	(1980– 2012) Economic Growth, EX, FDI, Investment	EX ↔ GDP (Jordan) EX → GDP (Turkey)
21.	F. Ahmad et al. (2018)	Cointegration and Wald Causality	(1981–2013) GDP, EX, FDI	EX ↔ GDP (ASEAN Countries)
22.	Ali and Li (2018)	GC approach and ARDL co-integration	(1980–2015) GDP, EX, IM	EX → GDP (China and Pakistan)
23.	Das and Sarma (2021)	ARIMA Model	(1975–2018) EX, Growth	EX~GDP (India)
24.	Tang (2013)	GC method	(1975–2010) GDP, EX, IM	EX ↔ GDP (Malaysia)
25.	Feder (1983)	Cross-Sectional Data (CSD) Analysis	(1964–1973) GDP, EX	EX → GDP (Less Developed Countries)
26.	Ram (1985)	CSD Analysis	(1960–1970) (1970–1977) EX, GDP	EX → GDP (73 Less Developed Countries)
27.	Balassa (1985)	CSD Analysis	(1973–1978) EX, GDP	EX → GDP (43 Developing Countries)
28.	Marin (1992)	C and GC methods	(1960–1987) EX, GDP	EX → GDP
29.	Afxentiou & Serletis (2000)	Engle-Granger C and GC	(1970–1993) EX, GDP	EX≠ GDP (Canada)
30.	Smith (2000)	Engle-Granger Cointegration	(1950–1997) EX, GDP	EX → GDP (Costa Rica)
31.	Awokuse (2003)	ECM, Toda-Yamamoto Causality	(1961–2000) EX, GDP	EX → GDP (Canada)
32.	Abual-Foul (2004)	VAR and ECM	(1976–1997) EX, GDP	EX → GDP (Jordan)
33.	Mamun & Nath (2005)	Engle-Granger C and GC	(1976–2003) EX, GDP	EX → GDP (Bangladesh)
34.	Ullah etc. (2009)	C and GC method	(1970–2008) EX, GDP	EX → GDP (Pakistan)
35.	Herrerias & Orts (2010)	Cointegration and ECM	(1964–2004) EX, GDP	EX → GDP (China)
36.	Henriques & 1998 Sadorsky (1996)	VAR model	(1870–1991) Economic growth, EX	GDP → EX (Canada)
37.	Shan & Tian (1998)	Toda-Yamamoto Causality	(1870–1991) GDP, EX	GDP → EX (Shanghai)
38.	Mah (2005)	ARDL method	(1979–2001) Economic Growth, EX	GDP → EX (China) EX → GDP (China)
39.	Lorde et al. (2011)	Cointegration and ECM	(1960-2003) GDP, EX	GDP → EX (Mexico) Long Term
40.	Halıcıoğlu (2008)	C and GC method	(1980–2005) Economic Growth, EX	EX → GDP (Turkey)
41.	Bahmani-Oskooe & Domac (1995)	Cointegration and ECM	(1923–1990) Growth, EX	EX → GDP (Turkey) GDP → EX (Turkey)
42.	Demirhan (2005)	C and GC methods	(1990–2004) Growth, EX	EX → GDP (Turkey)
43.	Bilgin & Şahbaz (2009)	Cointegration and Todo-Yamamoto Causality	(1987–2007) GDP, EX	EX → GDP (Turkey)
44.	Joshua et al, (2020)	GC method	(1989–2007) GDP, EX	Trase globalization → GDP (Nigeria)

Note: The →, ↔ and ≠ respectively imply uni-directional causality, bi-directional causality, and no causality while ~ indicates unsteady effect, EX= Exports, IM= Imports, FDI=foreign direct investment, LP= Logistics Performance, LPI= Logistics Performance Index.

Table 2. Studies on LPLG.

No	Studies	Methodology	Data Set	Main Causality Conclusions
1.	Sharipbekova and Raimbekov (2018)	Factor and Registration Analysis	(2007–2016) LPI, GDP	LPI ↔ GDP (CIS Countries)
2.	Takele and Buvik (2019)	Gravity model	export, GDP, LPI and dummy variables	LPI→EX (Africa)
3.	Gani (2017)	OLS Regression	GDP, LPI, Import and Export	LPI→EX (60 Countries)
4.	Yeo et al. (2020)	Generalized Structured Component Analysis (GSCA) Structural Equation Modeling (SEM)	(2010–2018) LP, IT, EP	LPI→EX (62 Low middle and high middle income countries)
5.	Siddiqui and Vita (2021)	OLS Regression Granger Causality	(2001–2016) GDP, FDI, LPI	GDP ≠ LPI (Cambodia, Bangladesh, India)
6.	L. Martí et al. ()	Gravity model	(2005–2008) IT, GDP, LPI, Population, Dummy Variables (Language, border)	LPI→IT (Developing countries)
7.	Saslavsky and Shepherd (2014)	Gravity model	IT, GDP, LPI, Population, Dummy Variables (Language, border and distance)	LPI→IT (Far East and Pasific Countries)
8.	Katrakylidis and Madas (2019)	Toda-Yamamoto Approach & Causality Analysis	(2007–2018) LPI, and GDP.	LPI → GDP (Short Term) LPI ↔ GDP (Long Term)
9.	Taguchi and Thet (2021)	Gravity model, OLS	(2007–2017) IT, GDP, LPI, Population, Dummy (Distance)	LPI→IT (ASEAN Countries)
10.	Wong and Tang (2018)	Panel OLS	(2007–2015) LPI, GDP, Corruption, Infrastructure, Technology, Education	Institutional reforms, upgrading resources → LPI (93 Countries)
11.	Goel et al. (2021)	Regression Analysis	(2007–2018) LPI, Economic growth, COVID-19 Effect	LPI→ Economic Growth (130 Nations)
12.	C. Wang et al. (2021)	Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)	(2000–2017) LPI, Economic Development	LPI→ Economic Development (China)
13.	Kabak et al. ()	Novel scenario analysis	(2007–2014) LPI, Export	LPI→EX (Turkey, Burundi, Zimbabwe, Brazil and Portugal)
14.	Töngür et al. (2020)	Gravity model	2007–2017 LPI, Export	LPI→EX (Turkey)
15.	Uca et al. (2015)	Structural equation modeling	(2012–2014) LPI, GDP	LPI (Customs and infrastructure) → GDP
16.	Sharipbekova and Raimbekov (2018)	Factor and Registration Analysis	(2007–2016) LPI, Economic growth	LPI→Economic Growth (CIS Countries)
17.	Çelikkol and Keskin (2021)	Regression Analysis	(2007–2018) LPI, GDP	LPI→GDP (Turkey)
18.	Maciulyte-Sniukiene & Butkus(2022)	The Fixed-Effect (FE) econometric model	(2007–2018) LPI, IT	LPI→IT (EU Countries)
19.	Zaninović et al. (2020)	Gravity Model	(2010–2018) LPI, IT	LPI→IT (EU Countries)
20.	Luttermann and Kotzab (2020)	Panel data analysis using secondary data	(2006–2017) LP, IT, Foreign Investment	LPI→IT + Foreign investment (20 Asian Countries)
21.	Korkut, Yavuz & Zeren (2022)	The panel cointegration and panel causality analysis	(1994–2017) LP, IT	LPI→IT (G20 Countries)
22.	Pınar and Diken (2020)	Descriptive analysis method	(2016–2018) LPI, Economy	LPI→ Economy (Turkey)
23.	Oruangke (2021)	Gravity Model	(2007–2018) LPI, Trade	LPI→Trade (ASEAN)
24.	M. L. Wang and Choi ()	Gravity Model	(2010–2014) LPI, Export and Import	LPI→E ≥ LPI→IM (Developing and Developed Countries)
25.	Ofluoğlu et al. (2018)	Gravity Model	(2007–2014) LPI, Trade	LPI→Trade (EU and MENA Countries)
26.	Maswana (2020)	Panel GMM Estimation, Panel fixed effect vs OLS dummy regression	(2004–2014) GDP, Foreign Investment, Çin FDI, LP	LPI→EX (China and 41 Africa Countries)
27.	Çelebiand Civelek (2018)	Mediator variable analysis method	(2007–2014) LPI, Global Competitiveness Index, GDP	GCI↔LPI↔GDP
28.	Çelebi et al. (2015)	Mediator variable analysis method	LPI, Foreign Direct Investments, Economic Growth	FDI↔LPI↔Economic Growth
29.	Tang and Abosedra (2011)	Cobb-Douglas Production Function and OLS	(2010–2016) LP, EX	(23 Asian Countries)

Note: The →, ↔ and ≠ respectively imply uni-directional causality, bi-directional causality, and no causality while ~ indicates unsteady effect, EX= Exports, IM= Imports, FDI=foreign direct investment, LP= Logistics Performance, LPI= Logistics Performance Index.

Table 3. Variables and explanations.

Variables	Explanation	Source	Obs.
GDP	Per capita real GDP, (US$ at 2010 prices)	WDI	210
EXP	Per capita real exports of goods and services (US$ at 2010 prices)	WDI	210
LP	Logistics performance (score 0–5 in each of six areas)	WBLPR	210
FDI	Real foreign direct investment per capita (US$ at 2010 prices)	WDI	210
HC	Human capital (average years of life expectancy)	WDI	210
POPG	Population growth (annual %)	WDI	210
TRANS	Transport services	WDI	210

Note: WDI, World Development Indicators.

Table 4. Summary of statistical properties.

Variables	Mean	Maximum	Minimum	Standard Deviation	Jarque-Bera	Probability
GDP	4.173	4.492	3.862	0.144	6.025	0.049
EXP	3.357	3.931	2.673	0.272	4.160	0.125
LP	1.759	1.945	1.541	0.079	0.221	0.895
FDI	0.767	1.522	0.311	0.213	13.771	0.001
HC	1.876	1.914	1.737	0.029	6.240	0.000
POPG	0.411	0.917	−0.556	0.208	2.446	0.000
TRANS	1.306	1.832	0.770	0.241	3.1492	0.207

Table 5. Cross-correlation matrix.

Correlation	GDP	EXP	HC	FDI	LP	POPG	TRANS
GDP	1.000
EXP	0.723	1.000
HC	0.262	−0.025	1.000
FDI	−0.037	0.018	0.122	1.000
LP	0.418	0.347	0.144	−0.296	1.000
POPG	0.006	0.142	−0.135	−0.069	0.165	1.000
TRANS	0.145	0.174	−0.072	0.015	−0.018	−0.172	1.000

Note: The independent variables are correlated with the GDP with a 1% statistically significant level.

Table 6. Outcome of panel FE model.

Variables	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3
Dependent variable	$lnGD{P}_{it}$	$lnGD{P}_{it}$	$lnGD{P}_{it}$
Constant, c	0.143	−3.073	1.686^c
$lnEX{P}_{it}$	0.359^c	1.260^c	0.363^c
$lnTRAN{S}_{it}$	0.023	0.019	1.113^c
$lnH{C}_{it}$	1.248 ^c	1.320^c	1.208^c
$lnPOP{G}_{it}$	−0.053^a	−0.057^b	−0.056^b
$lnL{P}_{it}$	0.28^2c	2.045^c	0.561^b
$lnFD{I}_{it}$	−0.024	−0.021	−0.026
$\left(lnEX{P}_{it}\mathit{\ast }lnL{P}_{it}\right)$	-	0.515^a	-
$\left(lnTRAN{S}_{it}\mathit{\ast }lnL{P}_{it}\right)$	-	-	0.648^c
Other statistical results
$R^2$	0.731	0.737	0.738
F-statistic	30.784^c	28.781^c	28.883^c
Diagnostics
Breusch-Pagan LM Test	1322.800^c	1294.807^c	1321.974 ^c
Pesaran scaled LM	21.098^c	20.286^c	21.074^c
Heteroskedasticity Test	250.157	250.7756	254.249
Jarque-Bera	3.599^b	3.827913^b	6.555^a
Hausman Test	2.618^c	3.773117^c	3.102^c

Note: ^c, ^b and ^a denote statistical significance at the 1%, 5% and 10% levels, respectively. In addition, the numbers in parentheses show the p-values.

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Data availability statement

Data utilized is freely available in online sources. It can also be provided upon request.