Understanding the global patterns of Venezuelan migration: determinants of an expanding diaspora

Figures & data

Figure 1. Flows of Venezuelan migrants from 1990 to 2017. Notes: Yearly average flows per period (own representation. Sources: IOM 2018a; UN DESA 2017a).

Figure 2. Pre-2015 flows of Venezuelan migrants to ten major destination countries (% of total flows). Notes: As migration flows from 1990 to 2015 (own representation. Sources: IOM 2018a; UN DESA 2017a).

Figure 3. Post-2015 flows of Venezuelan migrants to ten major destination countries (% of total flows). Notes: As percentage share of total Venezuelan migration flows from 2015 to 2017 (own representation. Sources: IOM 2018a; UN DESA 2017a).

Table 1. Explanatory variables and characteristics of key papers.

Determinant	Paper
	Author(s)	Type of analysis	Method	Context of analysis	Finding: Migrants are generally immigrating more to destination countries that …
Economic standard of living	Anderson (2011)	Qualitative	Review of theoretical and empirical studies	multiple countries and years	… have a higher economic standard of living.
	Mayda (2010)	Quantitative	Econometric analysis	79 countries: 1980-1995
Distance	Head and Mayer (2014)	Quantitative	Meta-Analysis	159 papers	… are geografically closer located.
	Greenwood (1975)	Qualitative	Review of empirical studies	multiple countries and years
Contiguity	Echevarria and Gardeazabal (2016)	Quantitative	Econometric analysis	210 countries: 1990-2013	… are contiguous.
	Ruyssen and Rayp (2014)	Quantitative	Econometric analysis	42 countries: 1980-2000
Colonial relationship	Ramos and Suriñach (2017)	Quantitative	Econometric analysis	200 countries: 1960-2010	… have a shared colonial relationship.
	Kim and Cohen (2010)	Quantitative	Econometric analysis	210 countries: 1950-2007
Language	Chiswick and Miller (2015)	Qualitative	Review of research on economics of language	multiple countries and years	… speak a common language.
	Adserà and Pytliková (2015)	Quantitative	Econometric analysis	223 countries: 1980-2010
Migrant networks	Beine, Docquier, and Özden (2011)	Quantitative	Econometric analysis	195 countries: 1990-2000	… already have a network of fellow countrymen living there.
	Massey et al. (1993)	Qualitative	Review of contemporary theories of international migration	multiple countries and years
Poverty	Castelli (2018)	Qualitative	Review of macro-, meso- and micro-drivers of migration	multiple countries and years	… have low poverty rates.
	Parkins (2010)	Qualitative	Interviews	multiple countries and years
Trade	Figueiredo, Lima, and Orefice (2016)	Quantitative	Econometric analysis	200 countries; 1960-2010	… are close trading partners.
	Campaniello (2014)	Quantitative	Econometric analysis	27 countries: 1970-2000
Political situation (e.g. stability)	Poprawe (2015)	Quantitative	Econometric analysis	230 countries: 2000	… are politically stable.
	Ramos (2015)	Qualitative	Review of tools and findings in migration studies	multiple countries and years
Migration policy	Beine, Bourgeon, and Bricongne (2019)	Quantitative	Econometric analysis	54* countries: 1980-2010	… have an open migration policy.
	Brekke, Røed, and Schøne (2017)	Quantitative	Econometric analysis	54* countries: 1980-2010

Notes: * While both papers (Beine et al.; Brekke et al.) investigate a total of 54 countries, their composition is different (30 origin and 24 destination countries; 45 origin and 9 destination).

Table 2. Summary statistics.

Variables	Observations	Mean	Standard Deviation	Minimum	Maximum
Flows	396	3,734.95	29,164.97	0	551,286
GDPpc(VEN)	396	13,729.75	2,499.46	10,877.78	17,601.45
	(396)	(9.51)	(0.18)	(9.29)	(9.78)
GDPpc(d)	384	18,422.64	19,190.37	167.90	111,447.60
	(384)	(9.21)	(1.23)	(5.12)	(11.62)
Distance	396	5,736.25	3,728.08	383.78	15,674.95
	(396)	(8.31)	(0.96)	(5.95)	(9.66)
Contiguity	396	0.05	0.21	0	1
Colony	396	0.02	0.12	0	1
Language	396	0.32	0.47	0	1
Network	384	2,904.33	7,894.35	1	42,119.00
	(384)	(5.57)	(2.48)	(0)	(10.65)
Population	390	26,400,000	48,200,000	33,754	323,000,000
	(390)	(15.75)	(1.98)	(10.42)	(19.59)
Poverty	265	4.60	7.73	0	36.30
GDP growth	376	2.82	2.17	-9.00	12.37
Share VEN oil	317	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.06
Stability	321	59.65	25.51	3.49	100.00
Government	341	1.68	0.96	0	3
Legislation	396	0.03	0.16	0	1

Notes: Summary statistics are only for countries that report data on inflows of Venezuelan migrants. Log values are reported in parenthesis.

Table 3. Estimation results of core determinants, pre-2015 period (1990–2015).

Dependent variable:	(1) flows	(2) flows	(3) flows	(4) flows	(5) flows
In GDPpc (VEN)	0.220	0.920	0.747	0.930	0.476
	(1.583)	(0.790)	(0.876)	(0.868)	(0.863)
In GDPpc (d)	0.928***	0.592***	0.700***	0.586***	0.871***
	(0.200)	(0.150)	(0.151)	(0.151)	(0.223)
In distance	-0.310**	0.137	-0.0360	-0.102	0.229
	(0.158)	(0.180)	(0.183)	(0.179)	(0.286)
In network		0.981***	0.930***	0.955***	1.024***
		(0.0604)	(0.0611)	(0.0598)	(0.0711)
Colony			0.384	0.334	-0.860
			(0.281)	(0.280)	(0.793)
Contiguity				-0.848**	-0.852**
				(0.363)	(0.382)
Language					1.196*
					(0.726)
N	314	314	314	314	314
Countries	63	63	63	63	63
pseudo R2	0.169	0.829	0.833	0.837	0.842

Notes: Robust standard errors of coefficients in parenthesis. All specifications control for time effects.

*p < .1, **p < .05, ***p < .01.

Table 4. Estimation results core determinants, post-2015 period (2015–2017).

Dependent variable:	(1) flows	(2) flows	(3) flows	(4) flows	(5) flows
In GDPpc(d)	-0.266	-0.464	-0.492	-0.388	0.362
	(0.254)	(0.289)	(0.304)	(0.286)	(0.440)
In distance	-0.929**	-0.510	-0.399	0.0512	1.284**
	(0.452)	(0.365)	(0.446)	(0.401)	(0.533)
In network		0.969***	1.000***	0.764***	0.765***
		(0.166)	(0.167)	(0.124)	(0.243)
colony			-0.622	-0.255	-3.064***
			(0.606)	(0.622)	(1.045)
contiguity				1.761***	2.653***
				(0.384)	(0.608)
language					3.855***
					(0.930)
N ( =  countries)	63	63	63	63	63
pseudo R2	0.194	0.737	0.740	0.811	0.929

Notes: Robust standard errors of coefficients in parenthesis.

*p<.1, **p<.05, ***p<.01.

Table 5. Robustness checks, pre-2015 period (1990–2015).

Dependent variable:	(1) flows	(2) flows	(3) flows	(4) flows	(5) flows	(6) flows	(7) flows	(8) flows	(9) flows	(10) flows	(11) flows
In GDPpc(VEN)	0.220	-0.055	0.062	-1.593	-0.528	0.530	-2.346	-0.360	0.0142	-0.703	0.479
	(1.583)	(0.719)	(1.598)	(1.736)	(1.643)	(0.765)	(1.752)	(1.549)	(1.630)	(0.803)	(0.726)
In GDPpc(d)	0.928***	0.953***	0.952***	1.519***	1.016***	0.871***	1.984***	1.178***	0.969***	1.346***	0.984***
	(0.200)	(0.099)	(0.219)	(0.382)	(0.258)	(0.260)	(0.372)	(0.273)	(0.202)	(0.324)	(0.260)
In distance	-0.310**	-0.969***	-0.347**	-1.959***	-0.521**	0.037	-0.605***	-0.812***	-0.323**	-0.0828	-0.043
	(0.158)	(0.217)	(0.171)	(0.433)	(0.207)	(0.499)	(0.218)	(0.268)	(0.160)	(0.354)	(0.620)
In population		0.872***				0.474***					0.453***
		(0.059)				(0.106)					(0.149)
GDP growth			0.026			0.137*					0.088
			(0.069)			(0.077)					(0.080)
poverty				-0.084***
				(0.031)
trade					-32.64	21.03					12.13
					(27.80)	(37.63)					(43.61)
ln network						0.645***				0.846***	0.630***
						(0.133)				(0.076)	(0.157)
colony						0.019				-0.699	0.009
						(0.708)				(0.592)	(0.763)
contiguity						-0.710				-0.650	-0.242
						(0.473)				(0.521)	(0.561)
language						1.154**				1.365**	1.424***
						(0.554)				(0.589)	(0.459)
political stability							-0.046***			-0.009	0.006
							(0.007)			(0.007)	(0.008)
government								0.428		0.198	0.152
								(0.326)		(0.132)	(0.093)
legislation									1.373**	0.869*	0.618
									(0.667)	(0.524)	(0.525)
N	314	314	312	218	260	251	256	285	314	224	189
countries	63	63	63	58	62	59	63	58	63	56	53
pseudo R2	0.169	0.633	0.168	0.370	0.181	0.871	0.350	0.239	0.177	0.862	0.876

Notes: Robust standard errors of coefficients in parenthesis. All specifications control for time-fixed effects. *p < .1, **p < .05, ***p < .01.

Table 6. Robustness checks, post-2015 period (2015–2017).

Dependent variable:	(1) flows	(2) flows	(3) flows	(4) flows	(5) flows	(6) flows	(7) flows	(8) flows	(9) flows	(10) flows	(11) flows
In GDPpc(d)	-0.266	0.0610	-0.279	-0.295	-0.902	0.720	1.048***	-0.125	0.211	1.829***	1.335**
	(0.254)	(0.227)	(0.251)	(0.522)	(0.563)	(0.451)	(0.323)	(0.314)	(0.331)	(0.472)	(0.648)
In distance	-0.929**	-2.401***	-0.906**	-1.726***	-1.201**	0.276	-1.600***	-1.391***	-1.188**	-0.838*	-3.733***
	(0.452)	(0.539)	(0.458)	(0.552)	(0.505)	(0.705)	(0.356)	(0.349)	(0.507)	(0.453)	(0.534)
In population		1.112***				0.303					2.223***
		(0.213)				(0.261)					(0.323)
GDP growth			-0.0293			-0.171					0.062
			(0.0865)			(0.173)					(0.058)
Poverty				-0.0627
				(0.106)
Trade					-308.6*	-45.77					32.82
					(162.9)	(66.55)					(34.79)
ln network						0.536*				0.344**	-0.590***
						(0.319)				(0.160)	(0.191)
Colony						-2.159*				0.307	3.540***
						(1.140)				(0.640)	(0.680)
Contiguity						1.829***				1.188	0.927**
						(0.579)				(0.828)	(0.455)
Language						3.936***				2.286***	3.777***
						(0.649)				(0.700)	(0.644)
Political stability							-0.078***			-0.034***	0.065***
							(0.016)			(0.010)	(0.019)
Government								-1.178**		0.200	-0.167
								(0.480)		(0.245)	(0.172)
Legislation									3.217***	1.510***	2.274***
									(0.826)	(0.326)	(0.374)
N ( = countries)	63	63	62	47	57	55	63	56	63	54	47
Pseudo R2	0.194	0.708	0.199	0.484	0.408	0.946	0.611	0.549	0.598	0.967	0.994

Notes: Robust standard errors of coefficients in parenthesis. *p < .1, **p < .05, ***p < .01.

Table A1. List of variables used in the regressions.

Flows	Number of Venezuelan migrants that immigrated to a destination country. Source: International Organisation of Migration (IOM 2018a)
GDP per capita	Income per capita of Venezuela or destination countries in PPP terms at current prices. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (IMF 2019b)
Distance	Population weigthed distance in kilometres between Venezuela and destination countries. Source: Gurevich and Herman 2018
Network (or network pb)	Number of Venezuelans that lived in a destination country in 1990 (or in the period before). Source: International Organisation of Migration (IOM 2018a)
Colony	0-1 dummy variable indicating if Venezuela and the destination country have a past colonial relationship. Source: Gurevich and Herman 2018
Contiguity	0-1 dummy variable taking the value 1 if Venezuela and the destination country share a common border. Source: Gurevich and Herman 2018
Language	0-1 dummy variable capturing if Venezuela and the destination country share a common official language. Source: Gurevich and Herman 2018
Population	Total population of destination country. Source: World Bank (2019)
GDP growth	Annual real GDP growth in destination country (average annualized values for each subperiod). Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (IMF 2019b)
Poverty	Share of country's population living below the poverty headcount of $1.90 a day at international prices (in PPP terms). Source: World Development Indicator (World Bank 2019)
Trade	Destination country's import of Venezuelan oil (in dollars) relative to its GDP. Sources: UN Comtrade Database (2019) and World Bank (2019)
Political stability	Destination country's percentile rank in the perception of the likelihood of political instability and/or politically-motivated violence. Higher values correspond to higher levels of political stability. Source: WGI, Kaufmann, Aart, and Mastruzzi (2010)
Government	Type of government in destination country, 1 for right-wing, 2 for centre and 3 for left-wing. Source: Database of Political Institutions (Cruz, Keefer, and Scartascini 2018)
Legislation	0-1 dummy variable with value 1 if destination countries had more open, tailored migration policy for Venezuelan migrants. Source: IOM 2018a

As mentioned in section 4, results are consistent across different definitions of migrant networks; defined either as the number of Venezuelans that lived in a destination country in 1990 (variable network) or at the start of each preceding subperiod (variable network pb). In Table A2, specifications (1) and (2) show the estimation results for the period between 1990 and 2015, while specifications (3) and (4) refer to the post-2015 years.

Table A2. Alternative network proxies.

Dependent variable:	Flows (1)	Flows (2)	Flows (3)	Flows (4)
In GDP pc VEN	0.476	-1.510
	(0.863)	(0.987)
In GDP pc d	0.871***	0.578***	0.362	0.0341
	(0.223)	(0.195)	(0.440)	(0.440)
In distance	0.229	0.262	1.284**	0.890**
	(0.286)	(0.258)	(0.533)	(0.438)
In network	1.024***		0.765***
	(0.071)		(0.243)
In network pb		0.957***		0.752***
		(0.056)		(0.156)
colony	-0.860	-0.879	-3.064***	-2.658***
	(0.793)	(0.702)	(1.045)	(0.769)
contiguity	-0.852**	-0.640*	2.653***	2.704***
	(0.382)	(0.372)	(0.608)	(0.723)
language	1.196*	1.095*	3.855***	3.276***
	(0.726)	(0.626)	(0.930)	(0.887)
N	314	314	63	63
Countries	63	63	63	63
pseudo R2	0.842	0.844	0.929	0.935

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