Military expenditures and human capital development in sub-Saharan Africa: a system GMM approach

Figures & data

Figure 1. Patterns of military expenditures in sub-Saharan Africa. Source: Authors' compilation.

Table 1. Military outlays (% of GDP) per sub-region in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Region	Mean between 1990 and 2000	Mean between 2000 and 2010	Mean between 2010 and 2020
West Africa	1.37	2.63	4.19
Eastern Africa	4.62	8.25	9.75
Central Africa	0.88	1.50	2.20
Southern Africa	3.93	4.85	5.99
Sub-Saharan Africa	10.8	16.6	20.2
Sahel	0.33	0.77	1.49
Lake Chad	0.98	2.15	2.95

Source: Authors' compilation from WDI.

Table 2. Trends of education spending in percentage of GDP (average values).

Regions	1990–2000	2000–2010	2010–2020
Sub-Saharan Africa	3.38	3.6	5.17
European Union	4.73	5.16	5.4
OECD	4.84	5.13	5.22

Source: World Bank Dashboard.

Table 3. Top 10 education spenders in sub-Saharan Africa.

Country	Overall (% of GDP)	Country	Primary (% of total)	Country	Secondary (% of total)	Country	Tertiary (% of total)
Lesotho	12.4	Burkina Faso	65.7	Cameroon	58.6	Botswana	43.5
Burundi	8.3	Niger	61.1	Angola	42.7	Lesotho	36.8
Botswana	7.9	Comoros	60.5	Mauritius	42.6	Comoros	34.6
Swaziland	7.8	Uganda	58.3	Mali	40.7	Rwanda	29.2
Comoros	7.6	Benin	57.6	Cape Verde	39	Senegal	26.9
Kenya	6.7	Chad	56.8	Togo	35	Swaziland	22.7
Senegal	5.8	Mozambique	56.2	Sierra Leone	32.6	Benin	20
South Africa	5.4	Kenya	54.7	South Africa	31.4	Burundi	20
Mozambique	5.0	Burundi	50.8	Botswana	31.3	Mali	18.7
Cape Verde	4.9	Togo	50.8	Swaziland	30.2	Sierra Leone	17.5

Source: Autthors’ compilation from WDI.

Table 4. Descriptive statistics for variables.

Variables	Mean	Median	Min	Max	Std. Dev.	Swilk test	p-Value
$\mathrm{educ}$	5.4695	3.9924	0.1103	35.032	5.85585	0.581	0.021
$\mathrm{mex}$	0.0244	0.0142	0.0014	0.727	0.04828	0.321	0.001
$\mathrm{grev}$	16.296	14.755	3.856	40.240	7.87436	0.939	0.175
$\mathrm{grow}$	4.2569	23.001	−36.39	69.02	6.1605	0.814	0.341
$\mathrm{geff}$	0.6362	0.7243	−1.884	2.1807	0.71578	0.923	0.000
$\mathrm{pop}$	2.4718	2.6394	−2.628	8.1179	1.00502	0.926	0.204
$\mathrm{enrol}$	14.261	14.412	9.6801	17.515	1.53550	0.976	0.053
$\mathrm{gini}$	0.5360	0.5285	0.1628	0.9801	0.12235	0.984	0.016

Source: Authors’ compilation from Stata.

Table 5. Estimated effects of military expenditures on education development in SSA.

	Model I		Model II
	Coefficient	Std. Error	Coefficient	Std. Dev.
Lagged dependent variable	0.9859***	0.0717	0.9932***	0.0133
Military spending	0.0985**	0.0454	−0.5928**	0.1987
Economic growth	0.2155***	0.0692	−0.3023	0.4804
Government revenue	0.0165***	0.0053	0.8202***	0.2939
Gross school enrollment	−0.1868***	0.0675	0.0761	0.2082
Governance efficiency	−0.0685	0.0887	0.1634**	0.5085
Gini index	0.0070**	0.0311	0.0322***	0.0925
Population growth	0.0979**	0.0457	0.8390**	0.3485
Constant	−2.6530***	0.9886	−6.440***	2.4927
Number of observations	1099		175
Number of countries	44		07
Number of instruments	32		08
AR(1) p-values	0.0604		0.000
AR(2) p-values	0.1020		0.9660
Hansen test p-values	0.2642		0.170

Notes: Significance level: (***) 1%; (**) 5%; (*) 10%. Model I = Sub-Saharan Africa (overall); Model II = Sahel and Lake Chad countries.

Table 6. Estimated effects of military outlays on education spending in sub-regions.

	Model III		Model IV		Model V		Model VI
	Coefficient	Std. Dev.	Coefficient	Std. Dev.	Coefficient	Std. Dev.	Coefficient	Std. Dev.
Education spending  L1	0.6577***	0.0387	0.8328***	0.0357	0.6217***	0.0459	0.8692***	0.0404
Military spending	−2.2163**	1.1473	0.3790**	0.1862	−0.0984*	0.2712	1.8807**	0.9228
Economic growth	−0.8293**	0.3590	0.3971*	0.2691	−0.3605**	0.5724	2.3910***	0.9228
Government revenue	0.0295**	0.0136	0.0236*	0.0142	0.0742***	0.0242	0.1283**	0.0543
School enrollment	0.0751	0.1524	0.3024**	0.1727	0.43437	0.3209	−1.6672	1.930
Governance efficiency	−0.6544**	0.2979	0.1686	0.3952	−0.6506*	0.3711	1.1081**	1.3155
Gini index	0.0455***	0.0149	0.0468***	0.0155	−0.00968	0.0127	0.03387	0.0497
Population growth	0.4561***	0.1466	−0.2255	0.1886	−0.4222***	0.1051	0.71361**	0.3017
Constant	1.5947***	1.9136	−9.5490***	2.8063	−0.83275	3.1135	4.1851***	2.8781
Observations	349		175		249		250
Number of countries	14		7		10		10
Number of instruments	09		08		09		09
AR(1) p-values	0.000		0.000		0.000		0.000
AR(2) p-values	0.347		0.8069		0.6728		0.5080
Hansen test p-values	0.355		0.0186		0.3912		0.2077

Notes: Significance level: (***) 1%; (**) 5%; (*) 10%. Model III = Western Africa countries; Model IV = Central Africa; Model V = Eastern Africa countries; Model VI = Southern Africa countries.

Table

	educ	mex	grow	geff	grev	gini	enrol	pop
educ	1.0000
mex	−0.0526*	1.0000
grow	−0.0793***	−0.0257	1.0000
geff	0.1413***	−0.2010***	0.0244	1.0000
grev	0.1153***	0.0248	−0.0348	0.2003***	1.0000
gini	0.1083***	−0.0037	−0.0346	−0.0304	−0.1933***	1.0000
enrol	0.4159***	−0.1317***	0.0414	−0.0910***	0.0848***	0.0575*	1.0000
pop	−0.1961***	0.1489***	0.2059***	−0.4389***	−0.1207***	0.0519*	0.1051***	1.0000

Note: Significance level: (***) 1%; (**) 5%; (*) 10%.

Source: Authors’ compilation from Stata.

Table

Variables	Proxy used, including measures	Data source
EDU	Education expenditures	World Development Indicators
MEX	Military spending	Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
GROW	Annual growth rate of GDP at market prices	World Development Indicators
GREV	Government revenue	Worldwide Governance Indicators
GEFF	Governance effectiveness	Worldwide Governance Indicators
ENROL	Gross school enrollment	World Development Indicators
POP	Population growth rate	World Development Indicators
GINI	Gini coefficient, potential range of values from zero to 100 that measures household income inequality	EHII – University of Texas

Source: Authors’ compilation.

Table

Variable	Hadri LM statistic	p-Value	Integration
Education spending in % of GDP	72.1585	0.000	I (1)
Military spending in % of GDP	38.3577	0.6205	I (0)
Economic growth	28.3727	0.0967	I (0)
Government revenue	14.216	0.1124	I (0)
Governance efficiency	55.3881	0.000	I (1)
School enrollment	95.7535	0.000	I (1)
Gini index	68.9176	0.8281	I (0)
Population growth	24.4399	0.1253	I (0)

Note: Authors’ compilation from Stata.