Influences on citizens’ policy preferences for shrinking cities: a case study of four Portuguese cities

Figures & data

Figure 1. Shrinking cities in Portugal between 1991 and 2011, as calculated based on census data.

Figure 2. Rates of population growth and decline of the cities of the Metropolitan Area of Oporto between 1991 and 2011, as calculated based on census data.

Figure 3. Location of Barreiro city and access routes between Barreiro and Lisbon.

Figure 4. Geographic distribution of insolation in Portugal with respect to the locations of various inland and coastal cities. Source: Environment Atlas (http://sniamb.apambiente.pt/webatlas/).

Figure 5. Rates of population change between 1991 and 2001 in Peso da Régua and neighbouring municipalities, as calculated based on census data.

Table 1. Sample distribution by city and parish.

Cities and parishes	Sample	%
Barreiro	179	26
Barreiro	36
Verderena	50
Alto do Seixalinho	93
Moura	171	24
Moura (Santo Agostinho)	87
Moura (São João Baptista)	84
Peso da Régua	171	24
Peso da Régua	90
Godim	81
Oporto	180	26
Aldoar	9
Bonfim	20
Campanhã	23
Cedofeita	19
Foz do Douro	8
Lordelo do Ouro	15
Massarelos	5
Miragaia	2
Nevogilde	4
Paranhos	34
Ramalde	27
Santo Ildefonso	8
São Nicolau	1
Sé	3
Vitória	2
Total	701	100

Table 2. Sample distribution by household typology.

Household typology	Sample
	Barreiro	Moura	Peso da Régua	Oporto
One person (15–64 years old) with or without other(s) (< 15 years old)	30	21	18	35
One person (> 64 years old)	25	22	16	24
Two persons (both 15–64 years old) with or without other(s) (< 15 years old)	51	56	53	46
Two persons in which at least one is > 64 years old	35	26	23	29
Three persons (> 15 years old) with or without other(s) (< 15 years old)	38	46	61	46
Total	179	171	171	180

Table 3. Survey statistics with respect to the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of respondents and their assessment/perception of their cities of residence, as well as Portugal national average values for demographic and socio-economic data.

Descriptive analysis
Statistics	Overall	Oporto	Barreiro	Peso da Régua	Moura	Portugal (INE 2013)
Sample (N)	701	180	179	171	171
Age (continuous variable)
Mean	54	57	54	53	52	43
Maximum	96		87
Minimum	18
Gender (nominal variable: 1 – feminine, 0 – masculine)
Frequency of women (%)	61.2	70.6	51.4	62.6	60.2	52
Frequency of men (%)	38.8	29.4	48.6	37.4	39.8	48
Education Level (ordinal variable) (1 – illiterate, 2 – primary school (incomplete or complete), 3 – secondary school (2 years), 4 – secondary school (5 years), 5 – secondary school (8 years), 6 – higher education)
Mean	3. 34	3.37	3.55	3.37	3.07	3.5
Maximum	6
Minimum	1
Monthly Household Income (ordinal variable: 1 – < 500, 2 – 500–1000, 3 – 1000–1500, 4 – 1500–2000, 5 – > 2000)
Mean	1.93	1.78	2.25	1.80		4 (2009)
Maximum	5			4
Minimum	1
Household (ordinal variable: 1 – one person to 5 – more than four persons)
Mean	2.26	2.13	2.08	2.49	2.33	2.6
Maximum	5
Minimum	1
Era of Construction (ordinal variable: 1 – after the 1970s, 2 – before the 1970s)
Frequency of houses after the 1970s (%)	52.4	57.8	45.8	63.7	58.5	63% (2011)
Frequency of houses before the 1970s (%)	47.6	42.2	54.2	36.3	41.5	37% (2011)
Ownership (nominal variable: 0 – owner, 1 – renting)
Frequency of owners (%)	59.1	29.4	69.8	60.8	77.2	73.2 (2011)
Frequency of tenants (%)	40.9	70.6	30.2	39.2	22.8	26.8 (2011)
Years of Residence (ordinal variable: 1 – < 10 years, 2 – 10–20 years, 3 – > 20 years)
Mean	2.44	2.42	2.61	2.28	2.43
Maximum	3
Minimum	1
Perception Regarding Population Evolution (ordinal variable: 1 – diminishing, 2 – stable, 3 – growing)
Mean	1.41	1.38	1.58	1.44	1.22
Maximum	3
Minimum	1
Satisfaction about the City (ordinal variable: 1 – unsatisfied to 5 – very satisfied)
Mean	4.05	4.34	3.54	4.24	4.10
Maximum	5
Minimum	1	2	1	3	1
Desires for Population Trend (ordinal variable: 1 – diminish, 2 – stay the same, 3 – increase)
Mean	2.77	2.71	2.70	2.86	2.83
Maximum	3
Minimum	1			2	1
Responsibility of Action (nominal variable: 1 – government, 2 – municipality, 0 – other institutions)
Frequency of Government (%)	36.5	30.0	35.8	38.6	42.1
Frequency of Municipality (%)	51.1	58.9	50.8	54.4	39.8
Frequency of other (%)	12.4	11.1	13.4	7.0	18.1
Willingness to Participate (WTP) (nominal variable: 1 – yes, 0 – no)
Frequency of WTP (%)	43.2	47.2	53.1	46.2	25.7
Frequency of not WTP (%)	56.8	52.8	46.9	53.2	74.3

Table 4. Statistics for the overall sample (n = 701) and for each city subsample regarding the ranking of each of the five policy themes.

Descriptive analysis
Policy options	Overall	Oporto	Barreiro	Peso da Régua	Moura
Economic Revival (ordinal variable: 1 – least important to 5 – most important)
Mean	4.31	3.95	4.47	4.32	4.50
Mode	5
Maximum	5
Minimum	1
Safety and Accessibility (ordinal variable: 1 – least important to 5 – most important)
Mean	3.21	3.28	3.41	3.07	2.24
Mode	4				3
Maximum	5
Minimum	1
Building Interventions (ordinal variable: 1 – least important to 5 – most important)
Mean	2.66	2.54	2.40	2.54	2.24
Mode	2	3	1		2
Maximum	5
Minimum	1
Public Services (ordinal variable: 1 – least important to 5 – most important)
Mean	2.82	2.15	2.74	2.86	3.56
Mode	4	1	2	4
Maximum	5
Minimum	1
Environmental Actions (ordinal variable: 1 – least important to 5 – most important)
Mean	2.02	1.11	1.09	2.21	1.64
Mode	1		2		1
Maximum	5
Minimum	1

Table 5. Bivariate correlations and non-parametric tests regarding the policy theme of economic revival for the full sample and each city subsample.

Correlation and non-parametric tests
Economic Revival versus …	Overall	Oporto	Barreiro	Peso da Régua	Moura	Test used
Age	Rho = −0.92**	n.s.				Spearman’s rho
	p = 0.015
	N = 701
Education Level	Rho = 0.086*	n.s.
	p = 0.024
	N = 699
Satisfactions	Rho = −0.110**	n.s.
	p = 0.003
	N = 701
Income	Rho = 0.199**	n.s.		Rho = 0.337**	n.s.
	p = 0.00
				p = 0.001
	N = 478
				N = 92
Household	n.s.				Rho = 0.170**
					p = 0.027
					N = 171
Era of Construction	n.s.
Years of Residence	n.s.
Population Trend Perception	n.s.
Desires	n.s.
Gender	Average (F) = 4.19**	Average (F) = 3.82*	n.s.			Mann–Whitney test
	Average (M) = 4.50**	Average (M) = 4.25*
	p = 0.000	p = 0.013
Ownership	Average (Owner) = 4.42**	n.s.
	Average (Tenant) = 4.14**
	p = 0.000
WTP	n.s.				WTP**
					p = 0.000
					N = 171
Responsibility	Government*	n.s.			Government**	Kruskal–Wallis test
	p = 0.009				p = 0.000
	N = 701				N = 171

Table 6. Bivariate correlations and non-parametric tests regarding the policy theme of safety and accessibility for the full sample and each city subsample.

Correlation and non-parametric tests
Safety and Accessibility versus …	Overall	Oporto	Barreiro	Peso da Régua	Moura	Test used
Age	Rho = 0.102*	n.s.				Spearman’s rho
	p = 0.007
	N = 701
Population Trend Perception	Rho = −0.087*	n.s.
	p = 0.025
	N = 660
Education Level	n.s.
Household	n.s.
Income	n.s.				Rho = −0.172*
					p = 0.048
					N = 133
Desires	n.s.				Rho = 0.209**
					p = 0.006
					N = 168
Era of Construction	n.s.			Rho = −0.228**	n.s.
				p = 0.003
				N = 171
Years of Residence	n.s.
Satisfaction	n.s.
Gender	Average (F) = 3.29*	Not significant	Average (F) = 3.67**	n.s.		Mann–Whitney test
	Average (M) = 3.07*		Average (M) = 3.13**
	p = 0.028		p = 0.006
Ownership	n.s.
WTP	n.s.
Responsibility	n.s.	Government*	n.s.		Municipality**	Kruskal–Wallis test
		p = 0.014			p = 0.009
		N = 180			N = 171

Table 7. Bivariate correlations and non-parametric tests regarding the policy theme of public services for the full sample and each city subsample.

Correlation and non-parametric tests
Public Services versus …	Overall	Oporto	Barreiro	Peso da Régua	Moura	Test used
Age	n.s.		Rho = 0.153*	n.s.		Spearman’s rho
			p = 0.040
			N = 179
Era of Construction	n.s.		Rho = −0.160*	n.s.	Rho = 0.179*
			p = 0.032		p = 0.019
			N = 179		N = 171
Years of Residence	n.s.			Rho = −0.202**	Rho = 0.254**
				p = 0.008	p = 0.001
				N = 170	N = 169
Education Level	n.s.
Household	n.s.
Income	n.s.
Population Trend Perception	n.s.
Satisfaction	n.s.
Desires	n.s.
Ownership	Average (Owner) = 3.00**	Average (Owner) = 2.45*	Average (Owner) = 2.86*	Average (Owner) = 2.71*	n.s.	Mann–Whitney test
	Average (tenant) = 2.54**	Average (tenant) = 2.02*	Average (tenant) = 2.46*	Average (tenant) = 3.10*
	p = 0.000	p = 0.029	p = 0.028	p = 0.05
Gender	n.s.			Average (F) = 3.02*	n.s.
				Average (M) = 2.59*
				p = 0.020
WTP	n.s.
Responsibility	Other institutions**	Other institutions**	Other institutions*	n.s.		Kruskal–Wallis test
	p = 0.001	p = 0.002	p = 0.013
	N = 701		N = 179

Table 8. Bivariate correlations and non-parametric tests regarding the policy theme of building interventions for the full sample and each city subsample.

Correlation and non-parametric tests
Building Interventions versus …	Overall	Oporto	Barreiro	Peso da Régua	Moura	Test used
Income	Rho = −0.183**	Rho = −0.293**	Rho = −0.195	n.s.		Spearman’s rho
	p = 0.000	p = 0.002	p = 0.22
	N = 478	N = 115	N = 138
Household	Rho = −0.098**	n.s.	Rho = −0.194**	Rho = −0.184*	n.s.
	p = 0.009		p = 0.009	p = 0.016
	N = 701		N = 179	N = 171
Era of Construction	Rho = 0.187**	n.s.	Rho = 0.271**	Rho = 0.337**	n.s.
	p = 0.000		p = 0.000	p = 0.000
	N = 701		N = 179	N = 171
Satisfaction	Rho = 0.097*	n.s.
	p = 0.011
	N = 701
Education Level	n.s.	Rho = −0.154*	n.s.	Rho = −0.152*	n.s.
		p = 0.039		p = 0.047
		N = 180		N = 171
Years of Residence	n.s.		Rho = −0.169*	Rho = 0.268	Rho = −0.185*
			p = 0.024	p = 0.000	p = 0.016
			N = 178	N = 170	N = 169
Population Trend Perception	n.s.
Age	n.s.
Desires	n.s.
Gender	n.s.	Average (F) = 3.63**	Not significant	Average (F) = 2.38*	n.s.	Mann–Whitney test
		Average (M) = 2.87**		Average (M) = 2.81*
		p = 0.000		p = 0.018
Ownership	Average (Owner) = 2.41**	Average (Owner) = 2.83**	Average (Owner) = 1.18**	Average (Owner) = 2.69*	n.s.
	Average (tenant) = 3.00**	Average (tenant) = 3.65**	Average (tenant) = 2.91**	Average (tenant) = 2.31*
	p = 0.000	p = 0.000	p = 0.000	p = 0.044
WTP	n.s.				NOT WTP**
					p = 0.000
					N = 171
Responsibility	n.s.		Municipality*	Government*	Other institutions**	Kruskal–
			p = 0.019	p = 0.005	-p = 0.000	Wallis test
			N = 179	N = 171	N = 171

Table 9. Bivariate correlations and non-parametric tests regarding the policy theme of environmental actions for the full sample and each city subsample.

Correlation and non-parametric tests
Environmental Actions versus …	Overall	Oporto	Barreiro	Peso da Régua	Moura	Test used
Age	Rho = −0.074	n.s.			Rho = −0.188**	Spearman’s rho
	p = 0.05				p = 0.014
	N = 701				N = 171
Education Level	Rho = 0.078*	n.s.	Rho = 0.190*	n.s.	Rho = 0.155*
	p = 0.040		p = 0.011		p = 0.043
	N = 699		N = 177		N = 171
Era of Constructions	Rho = −0.087*	n.s.	Rho = −0.184*	n.s.
	p = 0.022		p = 0.014
	N = 701		N = 179
Population Trend Perception	Rho = 0.111	Rho = 0.189*	n.s.
	p = 0.004	p = 0.13
	N = 660	N = 172
Desires	Rho = −0.081*	n.s.
	p = 0.033
	N = 696
Income	n.s.		Rho = 0.246**	n.s.
			p = 0.004
			N = 138
Household	n.s.
Years of Residence
Satisfaction
Gender	n.s.					Mann–Whitney test
Ownership
WTP
Responsibility	Municipality**	Municipality**	n.s.		Other institutions**	Kruskal–Wallis test
	p = 0.000	p = 0.005			p = 0.000
	N = 701	N = 180			N = 171