Regional inequalities as drivers of affective polarization

Figures & data

Table 1. Parties with representation in the federal parliament, 2014–19 and 2019–present.

Party family	Flanders	Wallonia
Christian Democrats	CD&V	CDH
Greens	Groen	Ecolo
Regionalists	N-VA	DéFI
Liberals	OpenVLD	MR
Social Democrats	sp.a	PS
Radical Right	VB	PP
Radical Left	PVDA	PTB

Figure 1. Levels of affective polarization in Belgium by NUTS-3 region.

Table 2. Descriptive statistics: explanatory and control variables.

Variables	Mean	Minimum	Maximum	SD
GDP	32,643	17,300	69,400	10,744
POP	527	46	7,422	1,092
PUBSERV_QUAL	54.23	45.3	60.6	3.42
GDP_TREND	0.09	0.0007	0.43	0.071
POP_TREND	0.1	0.02	0.26	0.05
INDUS_TREND	−0.09	−0.39	0.54	0.2
IDEO_POLAR	5.28	4.16	6.61	0.42
DISTANCE	126.4	7.7	329.26	65.6
INSTIT_TRUST	10.75	1	25	5.45
REDISTR	6.02	0	10	2.01
MIGR	7.41	0	10	2.38
SOCIAL_POLAR	14.38	5	29	4.55

Note: Values refer to dyadic variables (N = 903 region pair).

Table 3. Structural and individual drivers of affective polarization (regions pairs), Belgium, 2019.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
	AFF_POL	AFF_POL	AFF_POL	AFF_POL	AFF_POL
GDP	−0.033	−0.037	−0.025	−0.021	−0.017
	(0.021)	(0.029)	(0.022)	(0.024)	(0.027)
POP	0.014*	0.014*	0.014*	0.015*	0.013*
	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.007)
PUBSERV_QUAL	0.014	0.015	0.015	0.018	0.017
	(0.022)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)
GDP_TREND		0.083**	0.081**	0.079*	0.078**
		(0.04)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.04)
IND_TREND		0.061*	0.057*	0.057*	0.056*
		(0.037)	(0.031)	(0.032)	(0.032)
POP_TREND		0.04	0.038	0.03	0.031
		(0.155)	(0.161)	(0.159)	(0.161)
DISTANCE			−0.041***	−0.039***	−0.039***
			(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.015)
SAMENUTS1				0.024	0.025
				(0.033)	(0.032)
SAMENUTS2				−0.039	−0.03
				(0.075)	(0.084)
IDEO_DIVERGENCE					0.062**
					(0.029)
INST_TRUST					0.031**
					(0.014)
REDISTR_POL					0.027
					(0.026)
MIGR					0.042**
					(0.019)
SOCIAL_POL					0.022
					(0.031)
Observations	903	903	903	903	903
Pseudo-R^2	0.278	0.28	0.281	0.281	0.286
Region dummies	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Note: Standard errors in parentheses are clustered by any pair containing the same region using the multiway clustering method (Cameron et al., 2010). Estimation strategy is Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML), with region fixed effects. All models were estimated using the Stata command ppmlhdfe by Correira et al. (2020). Independent variables were standardized with a mean of 0 and standard deviation (SD) of 1, except dummy variables samenuts1 and samenuts2.

***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1.

Table 4. Interaction effect between distance and economic performance on affective polarization (region pairs), Belgium, 2019.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
	AFF_POL	AFF_POL	AFF_POL	AFF_POL	AFF_POL
Percentiles of DISTANCE	0.1	0.25	0.5	0.75	0.9
GDP	−0.011	−0.011	−0.011	−0.011	−0.011
	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)
POP	0.013*	0.013*	0.013*	0.013*	0.013*
	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)
PUBSERV_QUAL	0.015	0.015	0.015	0.015	0.015
	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)
GDP_TREND	0.0912**	0.0831**	0.0672**	0.0615*	0.0534*
	(0.040)	(0.042)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.027)
IND_TREND	0.055*	0.055*	0.055*	0.055*	0.055*
	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.032)
POP_TREND	0.041	0.041	0.041	0.041	0.041
	(0.16)	(0.16)	(0.16)	(0.16)	(0.16)
DISTANCE	−0.039***	−0.039***	−0.039***	−0.039***	−0.039***
	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.012)	(0.012)
IDEO_DIVERGENCE	0.063**	0.063**	0.063**	0.063**	0.063**
	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)
INST_TRUST	0.033**	0.033**	0.033**	0.033**	0.033**
	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.015)
REDISTR_POL	−0.027	−0.027	−0.027	−0.027	−0.027
	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.026)
MIGR	0.039**	0.039**	0.039**	0.039**	0.039**
	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)
SOCIAL_POL	0.021	0.021	0.021	0.021	0.021
	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.03)
Observations	946	946	946	946	946
Pseudo-R^2	0.286	0.286	0.286	0.286	0.286
Region dummies	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Note: Standard errors in parentheses are clustered by any pair containing the same region using the multiway clustering method (Cameron et al., 2010). Estimation strategy is Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML), with region fixed effects. All models were estimated using the Stata command ppmlhdfe by Correira et al. (2020). Independent variables were standardized with a mean of 0 and standard deviation (SD of 1.

***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1.

Cameron, J. J., Stinson, D. A., Gaetz, R., & Balchen, S. (2010). Acceptance is in the eye of the beholder: Self-esteem and motivated perceptions of acceptance from the opposite sex. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 99(3), 513–529.

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Correira, S., Guimaraes, P., & Zylkin, T. (2020). Fast Poisson estimation with high-dimensional fixed effects. The Stata Journal: Promoting Communications on Statistics and Stata. http://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3561560

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