Translating votes into seats and offices: changing representation and government in the Italian Regions (2018-2020)

Figures & data

Table 1. Assessing representative democracy in Italian regions: a framework

Characteristic assessed	Indicator	Type of comparison
Disproportionality	Gallagher index	Time (compared to previous election cycle) Cross-sectional (differences among regions)
Fragmentation of vote and representation	Laakso-Taagepera index for effective number of parties, based on vote share (ENPV) and seat share (ENPS)
Fragmentation of government and opposition	Laakso-Taagepera index for effective number of parties based on seat share of governing parties (ENPSM) and of opposition parties (ENPSO)
Competitiveness	% difference in seats between governing parties and opposition

Table 2. Identifying the political personnel of Italian regions (2018–2020)

Type of policy maker	Indicators	Type of comparison
Regional councillors	Age Gender Previous political experience at the regional level (yes/no and number of years) Previous political experience at the local level (yes/no)	Cross-sectional: 18 regions and 2 autonomous provinces (Sicily excluded) Parties: Democratic Party (PD), Five-star Movement (M5s), League, Forza Italia (FI), Brothers of Italy (FdI), Others
Regional presidents and ministers (assessori)	Age Gender Previous political experience at the regional level (yes/no and number of years) Previous political experience at the local level (yes/no) Elected (yes/no)	Cross-sectional: 18 regions and 2 autonomous provinces (Sicily excluded) Coalitions: centre-left; centre-right

Figure 1. Vote shares of main Italian parties in regional elections: 2013–2015 and 2018–2020 cycles

Source: Author’s own elaboration based on data provided by Italian Interior Ministry.

Figure 2. Shares of seats won by main Italian parties in regional elections: 2013–2015 and 2018–2020 cycles

Source: see Figure 1.

Table 3. Disproportionality in Italian regions (Gallagher index)

	2018–2020	2013–2015	Difference
Abruzzo	6.1	8.4	−2.3
Aosta	10	5.1	4.9
Basilicata	12.3	5.1	7.2
Bolzano	2.8	3.1	−0.3
Calabria	8.7	9.8	−1.1
Campania	3.9	10.3	−6.4
Emilia-Romagna	8.5	12	−3.5
FVG	3.2	11	−7.8
Lazio	12.2	9.4	2.8
Liguria	4.9	6.9	−2
Lombardy	5.7	8.7	−3
Marche	6.8	12.9	−6.1
Molise	6.5	8.9	−2.4
Piedmont	7.3	11.7	−4.4
Puglia	13.6	7	6.6
Sardinia	5.1	8.2	−3.1
Toscana	16	11.2	4.8
Trento	9.9	6.8	3.1
Umbria	6.4	13.9	−7.5
Veneto	3.7	4	−0.3
Average	7.7	8.7	−1

Source: see Figure 1

Table 4. Fragmentation of votes (ENP_V) and seats (ENP_S) in Italian regions

	ENPv			ENPs
	2018–2020	2013–2015	Difference	2018–2020	2013–2015	Difference
Abruzzo	6.7	6.6	0.1	5.1	4.9	0.2
Aosta	7.5	8.2	−0.7	4.8	7.1	−2.3
Basilicata	8.8	7.7	1.1	6	6.2	−0.2
Bolzano	4.4	3.8	0.6	4.1	3.5	0.6
Calabria	10.2	8.7	1.5	7.7	5.4	2.3
Campania	12.2	8.4	3.8	10.8	6.3	4.5
Emilia- Romagna	4.2	3.8	0.4	3.2	2.5	0.7
FVG	5.3	6.4	−1.1	4.9	4.4	0.5
Lazio	7.2	5.9	1.3	4.8	4.8	0
Liguria	6.8	5.6	1.2	5.6	5	0.6
Lombardy	5.5	6.8	−1.3	4.4	5.5	−1.1
Marche	6.2	5.1	1.1	4.7	3.2	1.5
Molise	6.9	12.4	−5.5	6.3	8.3	−2
Piedmont	4.6	4.8	−0.2	3.7	3.2	0.5
Puglia	10.7	8.6	2.1	5.6	6.8	−1.2
Sardinia	13.8	9.5	4.3	11.3	6.5	4.8
Toscana	5.1	3.6	1.5	2.6	2.4	0.2
Trento	7.9	8.4	−0.5	4.8	5.9	−1.1
Umbria	4.8	5.4	−0.6	3.9	3.2	0.7
Veneto	3.9	7.4	−3.5	3.4	6.1	−2.7
Average	7.1	6.9	0.2	5.4	5.1	0.3

Source: see Figure 1.

Table 5. Ruling parties vs opposition: fragmentation and competitiveness

Region	ENPS Winning coalition			ENPS Opposition			% difference in seats government – opposition
	2018–20	2013–15	Diff.	2018–20	2013–15	Diff.	2018–20	2013–15	Diff.
Abruzzo	2.7	2.5	0.2	2.5	2.7	−0.2	16.2	16.2	0
Aosta	3.6	3.6	0	1.5	3.5	−2	20	2.8	17.2
Basilicata	3.3	3.5	−0.2	2.9	3.3	−0.4	23.8	33.4	−9.6
Bolzano	1.5	1.2	0.3	4.6	4.4	0.2	8.6	8.6	0
Calabria	5	2.9	2.1	2.7	2.7	0	29	29	0
Campania	6.9	3.3	3.6	3.9	3.3	0.6	29.4	21.6	7.8
Em.-Rom.	1.6	1.1	0.5	1.9	2.9	−1	16	28	−12
FVG	2.3	1.7	0.6	3.2	3.9	−0.7	18.2	10.2	8
Lazio	1.7	1.8	−0.1	4.1	3.5	0.6	−2	13.8	−15.8
Liguria	2.9	2.8	0.1	2.9	2.2	0.7	20	3.2	16.8
Lombardy	2.3	3.1	−0.8	2.4	2.4	0	22.6	20	2.6
Marche	3	1.4	1.6	1.8	3.6	−1.8	29	22.6	6.4
Molise	6	4.6	1.4	1.6	4	−2.4	20	23.8	−3.8
Piedmont	1.9	1.6	0.3	2.5	2.8	−0.3	29.4	29.4	0
Puglia	2.2	3.4	−1.2	4.6	3.8	0.8	9.8	17.6	−7.8
Sardinia	6.5	3.3	3.2	4.7	3.6	1.1	20	20	0
Toscana	1.2	1	0.2	2.5	3.7	−1.2	22	22	0
Trento	2.2	3.1	−0.9	3.9	4	−0.1	20	31.4	−11.4
Umbria	1.9	1.4	0.5	2.3	4.6	−2.3	23.8	23.8	0
Veneto	2.5	2.8	−0.3	1.6	4	−2.4	64.8	13.8	51
Average	3.1	2.5	0.6	2.9	3.4	−0.5	22	19.6	2.4

Source: see Figure 1.

Figure 3. Locating Italian regions on the map of party fragmentation: government vs opposition

Source: see Figure 1.

Figure 4. Women elected in regional councils from 1990 to 2020

Source: Cerruto (2013); author’s own elaboration based on Anagrafe degli amministratori locali e regionali for 2020.

Table 6. Age and gender of regional councillors (2018–2020)

Region	Average age			% female councillors
	2020	2005	Difference	2020	2005	Difference
Abruzzo	47	48	−1	19.4	17.5	1.9
Aosta	49	50	−1	11.4	8.6	2.8
Basilicata	49	49	0	9.5	10	−0.5
Bolzano	49	48	1	23.5	20	3.5
Calabria	51	51	0	6.9	4	2.9
Campania	49	49	0	16	8.3	7.7
Emilia-Romagna	46	48	−2	42	10	32
FVG	51	48	3	14.3	13.3	1
Lazio	47	49	−2	31.4	16.9	14.5
Liguria	52	51	1	20	10	10
Lombardy	45	48	−3	22.2	15	7.2
Marche	49	48	1	30	15	15
Molise	47	49	−2	25	6.7	18.3
Piedmont	46	48	−2	13.7	15.9	−2.2
Puglia	49	50	−1	16	2.9	13.1
Sardinia	49	49	0	13.3	9.5	3.8
Toscana	48	50	−2	33.3	24.6	8.7
Trento	47	48	−1	25.7	20	5.7
Umbria	46	48	−2	30	16.7	13.3
Veneto	47	47	0	35.3	10	25.3

Source: see Figure 4.

Table 7. Political experience of regional representatives (2018–2020)

Regions	% with experience at regional level	Average years of reg. experience	% with experience at local level	Political experience score
Abruzzo	29	1.5	71	−0.58
Aosta	60	4.5	62.9	0.63
Basilicata	33.3	2.6	61.9	−0.41
Bolzano	41.2	3.4	67.6	0.08
Calabria	41.4	2.9	86.2	0.41
Campania	50	3.4	66	0.23
Emilia- Romagna	58	3.6	88	0.96
FVG	28.6	2	87.8	−0.04
Lazio	49	2.6	62.7	−0.08
Liguria	26.7	1.7	76.7	−0.44
Lombardy	21	1.3	79	−0.59
Marche	30	2	93.3	0.11
Molise	30	3.3	65	−0.25
Piedmont	25.5	1.3	76.5	−0.56
Puglia	52	3.9	68	0.44
Sardinia	30	2.6	76.7	−0.13
Toscana	41	2.2	84.6	0.17
Trento	40	2.7	68.6	−0.09
Umbria	25	1.8	75	−0.48
Veneto	37.3	2.6	92.2	0.38
Total	37.6	2.6	76.3	–

Source: see Figure 4.

Table 8. Characteristics of regional councillors by party (2018–2020)

Party	Average age	% female	% previous regional experience	Average years of regional experience	% with experience at local level	Political experience score
PD	49	28.2	58	3.8	87.3	0.99
M5s	43	35.4	44.3	2.3	15.2	−1.37
League	47	23.2	18	1	82.5	−0.64
FI	50	11.9	38.8	2.9	89.6	0.43
FdI	48	13.3	28.3	2.5	86.7	0.05
Total	48	22.2	37.6	2.6	76.3	–

Source: see Figure 4.

Table 9. Characteristics of regional governments (2018–2020)

Region	Average age	% female	% previous regional experience	Average years of regional experience	% with experience at local level	Political experience score	% non-elected
Abruzzo	48	14.3	14.3	0.7	100	−0.72	0
Aosta	52	12.5	75	4.6	62.5	0.51	0
Basilicata	54	16.7	16.7	1.3	66.7	−1.31	0
Bolzano	47	22.2	55.6	4.4	100	0.94	0
Calabria	53	25	25	2.5	25	−1.84	75
Campania	61	27.3	72.7	4.1	45.5	−0.05	72.7
Emilia- Romagna	50	36.4	45.5	3.1	72.7	−0.19	36.4
FVG	51	27.3	27.3	1.8	90.9	−0.43	54.5
Lazio	48	36.4	54.5	3.6	54.5	−0.31	81.8
Liguria	50	25	87.5	5	50	0.55	25
Lombardy	51	23.5	52.9	3.2	76.5	0.06	52.9
Marche	50	14.3	28.6	1.3	100	−0.31	28.6
Molise	59	0	33.3	4.8	83.3	0.2	16.7
Piedmont	47	25	16.7	0.8	91.7	−0.84	25
Puglia	53	20	60	4	60	0.01	20
Sardinia	47	33.3	33.3	3.3	66.7	−0.52	66.7
Toscana	52	44.4	100	5.6	100	2.08	33.3
Trento	43	25	12.5	0.6	75	−1.36	12.5
Umbria	57	33.3	33.3	4.2	100	0.44	33.3
Veneto	49	33.3	100	9.7	100	3.02	0
Total	51	25.8	48.4	3.4	75.3	–	35.5

Source: see Figure 4.

Figure 5. Mapping political professionalism in Italian regional administrations (2018–2020)

Source: see Figure 4.

Table 10. Characteristics of regional presidents and ministers by coalition (2018–2020)

	Average Age	% female	% previous regional experience	Average years of regional experience	% with experience at local level	Political experience score	% non-elected
Centre-right	50	23.8	40	3.1	80.2	−0.13	31.7
Centre-left	53	30	67	4.1	65	0.27	43.3

Source: see Figure 4.

Cerruto, M. 2013. “La classe politica regionale.” In Il divario incolmabile, edited by S. Vassallo, 89–108. Bologna, Italy: Il Mulino.

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