The rise of the social state as a global model: A comparative and historical study, 1870–2000

Figures & data

Figure 1. Cumulative adoption of socially oriented ministries. (a) Education, Stats/Info, Labor, Welfare, Health. Note: Over this time period, the number of countries in the world also expands. To account for this, Table 1 also captures similar trends for each ministry type, measured as the proportion of countries that have adopted each ministry at specific time points. (b) Higher education, Family affairs, Children, Environment, Women, Human rights.

Table 1. Percentage of countries with particular social ministries, by year.

		Year
Ministry	Sample	1870	1900	1945	1960	2000
Education	All cases	0.26	0.60	0.74	0.71	0.97
	Independent by 1870	0.26	0.58	0.74	0.82	0.94
	Independent 1870–1944	–	–	0.74	0.78	1.00
	Independent 1945-	–	–	–	–	0.97
Welfare	All cases	0.02	0.04	0.41	0.49	0.86
	Independent by 1870	0.02	0.04	0.40	0.56	0.90
	Independent 1870–1944	–	–	0.43	0.70	0.96
	Independent 1945-	–	–	–	–	0.81
Labor	All cases	0	0.04	0.47	0.45	0.88
	Independent by 1870	0	0.04	0.48	0.60	0.92
	Independent 1870–1944	–	–	0.43	0.48	0.87
	Independent 1945-	–	–	–	–	0.86
Statistics/Information	All cases	0	0.02	0.15	0.22	0.63
	Independent by 1870	0	0.02	0.16	0.22	0.54
	Independent 1870–1944	–	–	0.13	0.26	0.43
	Independent 1945-	–	–	–	–	0.70
Health	All cases	0	0	0.41	0.51	0.94
	Independent by 1870	0	0	0.36	0.58	0.94
	Independent 1870–1944	–	–	0.52	0.70	0.96
	Independent 1945-	–	–	–	–	0.93
Higher Education	All cases	0	0	0.01	0.03	0.28
	Independent by 1870	0	0	0.02	0.02	0.28
	Independent 1870–1944	–	–	0	0.09	0.30
	Independent 1945-	–	–	–	–	0.26
Family Affairs	All cases	0	0	0	0.03	0.20
	Independent by 1870	0	0	0	0.04	0.22
	Independent 1870–1944	–	–	0	0.04	0.26
	Independent 1945-	–	–	–	–	0.18
Children	All cases	0	0	0	0.02	0.56
	Independent by 1870	0	0	0	0.02	0.32
	Independent 1870-1944	–	–	0	0.04	0.43
	Independent 1945-	–	–	–	–	0.68
Variable (all cases)	Sample	1870	1900	1945	1960	2000
Women	All cases	0	0	0	0.01	0.32
	Independent by 1870	0	0	0	0	0.22
	Independent 1870–1944	–	–	0	0.04	0.22
	Independent 1945-	–	–	–	–	0.38
Environment	All cases	0	0	0	0	0.56
	Independent by 1870	0	0	0	0	0.56
	Independent 1870–1944	–	–	0	0	0.74
	Independent 1945-	–	–	–	–	0.51
Human rights	All cases	0	0	0	0	0.07
	Independent by 1870	0	0	0	0	0.04
	Independent 1870–1944	–	–	0	0	0.04
	Independent 1945-	–	–	–	–	0.09
N for all cases		50	52	73	111	190
N for countries independent by 1870 only		50	50	50	50	50
N for countries independent 1870–1945		–	–	23	23	23
N for countries independent post-1945		–	–	–	–	117

Notes: Tabulations for rows labeled “all cases” reflect the proportion of countries that have a given ministry out of the set of countries that are independent in that year.

Table 2a. Constant-rate event history analyses of ministry adoption.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
	Stats/info	Labor	Welfare	Health
Electricity production per capita (log)	−0.01	0.00	0.16+	−0.08
	(0.12)	(0.10)	(0.09)	(0.10)
Democracy Score	−0.62	1.34**	1.07**	1.11**
	(0.49)	(0.41)	(0.38)	(0.41)
Population (logged)	0.16+	0.17*	0.13+	0.02
	(0.09)	(0.08)	(0.07)	(0.08)
Cabinet size	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
Independent 1870-1944 (d)	−0.23	−0.55	0.35	0.13
(ref = Independent by 1870)	(0.44)	(0.35)	(0.32)	(0.32)
Independent post-1945 (d)	1.40***	0.52*	0.54*	0.55*
(ref = Independent by 1870)	(0.29)	(0.25)	(0.25)	(0.25)
Global index (stats/info)	0.17*
	(0.07)
Global index (labor)		0.19**
		(0.06)
Global index (welfare)			0.22***
			(0.06)
Global index (health)				0.25***
				(0.06)
Constant	−6.35***	−5.69***	−5.67***	−4.22***
	(0.81)	(0.69)	(0.64)	(0.68)
N	5,724	3,729	4,158	3,252
Countries	160	153	154	154
Events	103	137	134	145

Notes: Standard errors in parentheses. + p<0.10 * p < 0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001

1. The dependent variable in each model is the year a country adopts a particular type of ministry, and the coefficients and standard errors capture the influence of national- and world-level variables on the hazard rate of ministry adoption.

2. Global index for each analysis is a composite variable that adds the standardized z-scores for three world-level variables at a given point in time: the number of international non-governmental organizations, the number of years since the first country adopted a given ministry, and the cumulative number of countries that have adopted a given ministry.

3. Time spans are the period where countries are at risk of adoption (from the first year a ministry is adopted anywhere). Stats/info ministries time span: 1899-2000; Labor ministries time span: 1899-2000; Welfare ministries time span: 1870-2000; Health ministries time span: 1901-2000.

Table 2b. Constant-rate event history analyses of ministry adoption.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
	Higher ed.	Family	Children	Environment	Women
Electricity production per capita (log)	−0.19	−0.13	−0.25*	−0.28*	−0.55**
	(0.17)	(0.21)	(0.11)	(0.12)	(0.17)
Democracy Score	−1.15+	2.87***	1.85***	3.09***	2.12**
	(0.65)	(0.82)	(0.48)	(0.49)	(0.65)
Population (logged)	−0.14	0.09	−0.21*	−0.06	−0.32**
	(0.12)	(0.16)	(0.09)	(0.09)	(0.12)
Cabinet size	0.06***	0.05**	0.05**	0.03*	0.07***
	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.01)	(0.02)	(0.02)
Independent 1871-1945	0.04	0.39	0.30	1.21***	−0.04
	(0.49)	(0.58)	(0.44)	(0.36)	(0.60)
Independent post-1945	0.10	0.83+	1.44***	0.46	0.66
	(0.38)	(0.49)	(0.35)	(0.29)	(0.42)
Global index (higher ed.)	0.32***
	(0.09)
Global index (family)		0.35***
		(0.10)
Global index (children)			0.27***
			(0.06)
Global index (environment)				0.12*
				(0.06)
Global index (women)					0.43***
					(0.10)
Constant	−5.03***	−9.37***	−4.92***	−5.28***	−4.58***
	(1.10)	(1.63)	(0.91)	(0.90)	(1.24)
N	6,523	5,465	4,514	3,109	3,390
Countries	164	164	164	163	163
Events	50	35	91	90	53

Notes: Standard errors in parentheses. + p<0.10 * p < 0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001

1. The dependent variable in each model is the year a country adopts a particular type of ministry, and the coefficients and standard errors capture the influence of national- and world-level variables on the hazard rate of ministry adoption.

2. Global index for each analysis is a composite variable that adds the standardized z-scores for three world-level variables at a given point in time: the number of international non-governmental organizations, the number of years since the first country adopted a given ministry, and the cumulative number of countries that have adopted a given ministry.

3. Time spans reflect the period where countries are at risk of adopting a ministry (beginning from the first year a ministry is adopted anywhere in the world). Higher ed. ministries time span: 1930-2000; Children ministries time span: 1954-2000; Family ministries time span: 1955-2000; Environment ministries time span: 1971-2000; Women ministries time span: 1975-2000.

Appendix A2. Pearson’s correlation coefficients of ministry adoption, year 2000 (n = 189).

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
(1) Education	1
(2) Stats/Info	0.24	1
(3) Labor	0.50	0.40	1
(4) Welfare	0.44	0.25	0.56	1
(5) Health	0.73	0.32	0.54	0.48	1
(6) Higher education	0.11	0.28	0.22	0.18	0.15	1
(7) Family	0.09	-0.03	0.14	0.09	0.12	0.19	1
(8) Children	0.20	0.35	0.27	0.15	0.28	0.17	0.24	1
(9) Environment	0.14	0.09	0.24	0.18	0.14	0.17	0.18	0.29	1
(10) Women	0.13	0.22	0.22	0.09	0.17	0.13	0.25	0.50	0.21

Appendix A3. Descriptive statistics of independent and control variables (all years pooled).

Variable	Obs	Mean	Std. Dev.	Min	Max
Electric Power Production per capita (log)	10,178	0.83	1.28	0.00	8.95
Population (log)	10,676	8.49	1.84	1.95	14.06
Democracy	15,568	0.27	0.26	0.07	0.92
Cabinet size	10,471	15.55	8.57	0.00	66.00
Independent pre-1870 (d)	24,201	0.26	0.44	0.00	1.00
Independent 1870-1945 (d)	24,201	0.12	0.32	0.00	1.00
Independent post-1945 (d)	24,201	0.61	0.49	0.00	1.00
Global index (stats/info)	19,593	0.32	2.31	−2.82	5.26
Global index (labor)	19,593	0.36	2.30	−2.86	5.24
Global index (welfare)	21,321	0.23	2.34	−3.01	5.21
Global index (health)	17,481	0.53	2.28	−2.64	5.15
Global index (higher ed)	13,641	0.63	2.07	−2.15	5.10
Global index (family)	8,841	1.00	1.78	−1.56	5.32
Global index (children)	9,033	1.11	1.97	−1.60	5.01
Global index (environment)	5,769	1.61	1.93	−1.15	4.81
Global index (women)	5,001	1.21	1.56	−1.02	4.42

Appendix A4. Cronbach's alpha scores for global indices (all years pooled).

Stats/Information	0.96
Labor	0.97
Welfare	0.98
Health	0.97
Higher education	0.90
Family	0.86
Children	0.87
Environment	0.80
Women	0.83