Future Tasks: Threats and Missions for SOF

Abstract

Forecasting is an inexact art at best. This article outlines a framework for forecasting SOF futures based on one originally used in the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review to map capabilities against threats. It also employs intersecting lines of inquiry, beginning with the American SOF “corporate view” of the future. The forecast distills a number of public and private sector futures assessments into three “mega-trends,” derived from analysis of over a dozen public and private sector futures assessments, and then produces a SOF “market forecast” based on the implications of current and emerging technologies. The market forecast suggests decision makers may be forced into reconsidering the nature of SOF organizations as well as the SOF Truths in order for SOF to retain a unique or “special” value in the future. This forecast concludes by outlining four future possible vectors, or alternative futures scenarios, in which emerging technologies might impact future missions to inform and spur additional thought and discussion among SOF force developers and employers.

Keywords:

• forecasting
• mega-trends
• recruitment
• retention
• SOF truths
• SOF missions
• SOF expansion

Disclosure statement

The content reflects the research and opinions of the author, and not the United States Air Force, the United States Special Operations Command, the Department of Defense, or the United States Government.