Factors affecting farm management adaptation strategies to climate change: The case of western Lake Tana and upper Beles watersheds, North West Ethiopia

Figures & data

Figure 1. Location of the study area (adapted from Arkives, 2011 EC).

Table 1. Dependent and independent variables that are likely to affect the choice of crop and animal adaptation strategy of farmers

Dependent Variables
1. Crop production management adaptation strategy	2. Animal production management adaptation strategy
1.1.Strip cropping (yes = 1,0 = no)	2.1. Rotation grazing (yes = 1, No = 0)
1.2.Mixed cropping (yes = 1,0 = no)	2.2.Implement cut and carries system (yes = 1, No = 0)
1.3.Crop rotation (yes = 1,0 = no)	2.3.Using improved forage (yes = 1, No = 0)
1.4.Tree planting/wood lot (yes = 1,0 = no)	2.4.Herd size determination with carrying capacity (yes = 1, No = 0)
1.5.Agro -forestry (yes = 1, No = 0)	2.5. Use improved breeds (yes = 1, No = 0)
1.6.Applying crop rotation (yes = 1, No = 0)	2.6. Hay preparation
1.7.Using high breed high yield varieties (yes = 1, No = 0)	2.7. Care for communal grazing
1.8.Small irrigation from river/spring (yes = 1, No = 0)
1.9. Sowing short matures crops (yes = 1, No = 0)
Independent variables	Measurement	Hypothesis
1. Age of the household head	Number	Positive
Sex of the household head	Dummy (1 = Male, 0 otherwise)	Positive or negative
3. Education level	Level category	Positive
4. Family size	Number	Positive
5. Farm experience	Years	Positive
6. Farm size	Hector	Positive/
7. Distance to market	Kilometer	Negative
8. Frequency of extension	Number	Positive
9. Crop income	Birr	Positive
10. Oxen ownership	Number	Positive
11. Access to credit	Dummy (= 1 if yes)	Positive

Table 2. Descriptive statistics of the farm households

Descriptive statistics	Freq.	Percent (%)	Descriptive statistics	Freq.	Percent (%)
1. The age of respondents			7. Land size/ownership
18–30(early working age)	30	8.88	less 0.5 ha	27	8.49
31–60 (mature working age)	272	80.47	0.5–1 ha	97	30.5
Above 60 (elderly)	36	10.65	1.1–1.5 ha	66	20.75
			1.5–2 ha	60	18.87
			Greater than 2 ha	68	21.38
Total	338	100	Total	318	100
2. Education level of HH			8. Oxen number of HH
Illiterate (Unable to read &Write)	170	50.3	1	46	13.6
Read and write (Adult & religous education)	119	35.21	2	186	54.9
1–4 years of eduction	36	10.65	3	52	15.3
5–8 years of education	10	2.96	4	36	10.6
9–10 years of education	3	0.89	5	9	2.7
Total	338	100	Total	329	97.3
3. Gender of household			9. Income of HH
Male	317	93.79	less 5000	4	1.19
Female	21	6.21	5,000–10,000	61	18.1
Total	338	100	10,001–15,000	65	19.29
4. Family size of HH			15,001–20,000	51	15.13
1–3 (low)	34	10.06	above 20,000	156	46.29
4–5 (average)	74	21.89	Total	337	100
6–7 (large)	124	36.69	10. Do you get a credit service?
Greater than 7 (extended)	106	31.36	No	141	41.72
Total	338	100	Yes	197	58.28
			Total	338	100
5. Farm experience of HH			11. Extension visit of HH
Less than 10 years	7	2.07	1 to 4	198	58.58
10–20 years	104	30.77	5 to 8	110	32.55
21–30 years	115	34.02	above8	30	8.88
31–40 years	81	23.96	Total	338	100
Above 40 years	31	9.17	12. Market Distance
Total	338	100	Less 5 km	239	70.71
6. Land size/ownership/			5–10 km	66	19.53
less 0.5 ha	27	8.49	11–15 km	33	9.76
0.5–1 ha	97	30.5	Total	338	100
1.1–1.5 ha	66	20.75
1.5–2 ha	60	18.87
Greater than 2 ha	68	21.38
Total	318	100

Source: field survey, 2018

Table 3. Farmers responses to perceived changes in specific climatic events

Questions	Total	Very decrease (%)	Decrease (%)	No change (%)	Increase (%)	Very increase (%)	Total
Soil fertility trend	336	18%	57%	2%	22%	0%	100%
(2) Soil erosion trend	336	6%	38%	2%	52%	3%	100%
(3) Land productivity trend	336	11%	52%	4%	33%	0%	100%
(4) Land degradation trend	335	6%	38%	1%	53%	2%	100%
(5) Forest resource status trend	336	22%	48%	1%	28%	0%	100%
(6) Range land resource status trend	336	12%	82%	4%	3%	0%	100%
(7) How do you perceive rainfall varation trend	337	0%	0%	10%	89%	0%	100%
(8) How do you perceive temerature varation trend	337	0%	3%	6%	91%	0%	100%
(9) Drought hazard impact on soil	268	11.6%	28.7%	24.3%	35.4%	0.0%	100.0%
(10) Flood hazard impact on soil	138	11.6%	31.2%	23.2%	24.6%	9.4%	100.0%
(11) Crop pest infestation hazard impact on soil	275	6.2%	34.2%	53.1%	6.5%	0.0%	100.0%
(12) Animal disease Infestation Hazard impact on soil	245	7.3%	35.9%	54.7%	2.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Source: field survey

Table 4. Factors affecting crop management, climate change adaptation strategy (MVProbit analysis)

VARIABLES	Short mature crops	High yield variety	Crop rotation	Mixed cropping	Strip cropping	Agro-forestry	Compost preparation	Irrigation
Age	−0.6133	−0.0857	−0.5372	0.1069	−0.0749	0.1644	−0.6645*	−0.2302
	(0.44)	(0.2699)	(0.4053)	(0.2404)	(0.2162)	(0.2257)	(0.3938)	(0.2231)
Gender	−1.1587**	−0.545	−0.8652	−0.438	−0.2259	−0.08	3.0053***	−0.7508*
	(0.5849)	(0.5613)	(0.6059)	(0.427)	(0.5052)	(0.522)	(0.6075)	(0.4444)
Edu	0.5956***	0.1138	0.0656	0.1661*	−0.1529*	−0.0631	0.0465	−0.0439
	(0.2157)	(0.1353)	(0.1401)	(0.1002)	(0.0929)	(0.0957)	(0.1386)	(0.0947)
Family size	−0.2545	0.038	0.1354	−0.0502	−0.0666	−0.007	0.3549**	−0.015
	(0.1804)	(0.1384)	(0.1434)	(0.0959)	(0.0921)	(0.0951)	(0.1707)	(0.0885)
Farmexperince	0.1035	0.1528	0.4098***	0.0618	0.0243	0.1738*	0.134	0.0379
	(0.166)	(0.1691)	(0.1371)	(0.0997)	(0.0963)	(0.098)	(0.1796)	(0.0956)
Farmsize	0.0298	−0.0593	−0.1259	−0.0536	−0.051	−0.2237***	−0.0153	0.057
	(0.1002)	(0.1186)	(0.0788)	(0.0774)	(0.072)	(0.0709)	(0.0915)	(0.0684)
Cropincome	−0.1075	−0.0441	−0.2661**	0.1306*	−0.0285	−0.0092	−0.2610*	0.0581
	(0.1065)	(0.1043)	(0.129)	(0.0688)	(0.0708)	(0.0689)	(0.1431)	(0.0652)
Distancemkt	0.15	−0.3492**	−0.1256	0.0437	0.3843***	0.2168*	−0.2118	0.3079**
	(0.201)	(0.1624)	(0.1679)	(0.1258)	(0.1256)	(0.1301)	(0.1601)	(0.1197)
Frequncyextension	−0.0003	0.0029	0.2609**	−0.1200*	0.1364**	0.1924***	0.3709***	0.1938***
	(0.1138)	(0.1173)	(0.1061)	(0.0679)	(0.0672)	(0.0703)	(0.1416)	(0.0681)
Oxenownership	0.5706**	0.3967*	−0.1911	0.0012	0.2187	0.4790***	−0.4408*	−0.1537
	(0.2379)	(0.2126)	(0.1865)	(0.1449)	(0.1493)	(0.1561)	(0.2346)	(0.1321)
Constant	2.9096*	1.7165	3.4374***	0.5178	−0.3582	−2.0931**	0.0904	0.302
	(1.5888)	(1.1278)	(1.0306)	(0.8561)	(0.8359)	(0.8725)	(1.3456)	(0.8189)
Observations	312	312	312	312	312	312	312	312

Likelihood ratio test of rho21 = rho31 = rho41 = rho51 = rho61 = rho71 = rho81 = rho32 = rho42 = rho52 = rho62 = rho72 = rho82 = rho43 =

rho53 = rho63 = rho73 = rho83 = rho54 = rho64 = rho74 = rho84 = rho65 = rho75 = rho85 = rho76 = rho86 = rho87 = 0:

chi2(28) = 251.221 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Number of obs = 312 Wald chi2(80) = 718.39.

Log pseudolikelihood = −839.04434 Prob> chi2 = 0.0000

***, **,* are significant at P < 0.01, P < 0.05 and P < 0.1, respectively.

Table 5. The marginal success probability of crop, climate change adaptation strategy

Variable	Obs	Mean	Std. Dev.	Min	Max
Croppr1	312	0.953	0.071	0.525	1
Croppr2	312	0.948	0.047	0.662	0.997
Croppr3	312	0.950	0.059	0.546	1.000
Croppr4	312	0.761	0.080	0.408	0.933
Croppr5	312	0.472	0.129	0.197	0.827
Croppr6	312	0.369	0.155	0.061	0.857
Croppr7	312	0.948	0.069	0.493	1
Croppr8	312	0.511	0.128	0.153	0.851

Table 6. Joint probabilities of success or failure of crop, climate change adaptation strategy

Variable	Obs	Mean	Std. Dev.	Min	Max
cropjpr1s	312	0.155	0.095	0.006	0.540
cropjpr0s	312	0.000	0.001	0.000	0.004

Table 7. Factors affecting Animal production management, climate change adaptation strategy (MVP probit analysis)

Variables	Rotational grazing	Herd size determination	Improved breeds	Improved forages	Cut and carry systems	Hay preparation	Communal grazing
Age	0.1321	−0.5586**	0.1354	−0.4811**	0.0238	0.0823	−0.2592
	(0.2555)	(0.2372)	(0.2243)	(0.2411)	(0.2379)	(0.2801)	(0.2174)
Gender	−0.1588	−0.7522*	−0.0548	−0.5771	−0.356	1.9897***	−0.6212
	(0.4128)	(0.3997)	(0.3686)	(0.4243)	(0.4339)	(0.4844)	(0.4183)
Education	0.1122	−0.1065	−0.1647	−0.1165	0.0902	0.0148	−0.059
	(0.0957)	(0.0933)	(0.1005)	(0.0981)	(0.1022)	(0.1135)	(0.0965)
Family size	−0.0242	−0.1486	−0.0667	−0.0959	−0.0903	−0.0327	−0.3331***
	(0.1012)	(0.0932)	(0.0864)	(0.0955)	(0.0947)	(0.1209)	(0.0875)
Farm experience	−0.0856	0.2627**	−0.0426	0.1974*	0.0157	−0.1243	0.08
	(0.1075)	(0.1034)	(0.1013)	(0.1048)	(0.1032)	(0.1175)	(0.0955)
Farm size	−0.0501	−0.0364	−0.0602	−0.1553**	0.0368	0.1932*	−0.0093
	(0.0722)	(0.0759)	(0.0677)	(0.0681)	(0.0744)	(0.0991)	(0.0703)
Crop income	−0.0297	−0.1740**	0.0684	0.1172*	−0.0712	−0.0568	−0.0571
	(0.0693)	(0.0686)	(0.0664)	(0.0666)	(0.0728)	(0.0832)	(0.0637)
Market distance	−0.3063**	0.0439	0.3541***	0.3193***	0.0286	−0.2905**	0.1246
	(0.1224)	(0.126)	(0.1249)	(0.1213)	(0.1274)	(0.1419)	(0.121)
Frequncy of extension	−0.3339***	−0.0056	−0.0728	−0.0049	−0.1044	0.0672	0.0058
	(0.0674)	(0.0676)	(0.0649)	(0.067)	(0.0702)	(0.085)	(0.0639)
Oxen ownership	0.2078	0.3484**	0.3469***	0.2812**	0.0145	−0.1106	0.2119
	(0.1447)	(0.1522)	(0.1343)	(0.1401)	(0.1603)	(0.1786)	(0.1443)
Constant	1.5964*	2.2975***	−0.8977	0.2543	1.5144*	−0.2771	2.0284***
	(0.881)	(0.8096)	(0.7614)	(0.8233)	(0.8696)	(0.9341)	(0.7756)
Observations	312	312	312	312	312	312	312

Likelihood ratio test of rho21 = rho31 = rho41 = rho51 = rho61 = rho71 = rho32 = rho42 = rho52 = rho62 = rho72 = rho43 = rho53.

= rho63 = rho73 = rho54 = rho64 = rho74 = rho65 = rho75 = rho76 = 0: chi2(21) = 310.232 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000.

Number of obs = 312 Wald chi2(70) = 286.80.

Log pseudolikelihood = −1061.9399 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000.

***, **,* are significant at P < 0.01, P < 0.05 and P < 0.1, respectively.

Table 8. The marginal success probability of animal management, climate change adaptation strategy

Variable	Obs	Mean	Std. Dev.	Min	Max
Animalpr1	312	0.670	0.154	0.242	0.930
Animalpr2	312	0.696	0.123	0.341	0.974
Animalpr3	312	0.435	0.142	0.164	0.805
Animalpr4	312	0.436	0.150	0.067	0.819
Animalpr5	312	0.774	0.060	0.619	0.916
Animalpr6	312	0.894	0.065	0.629	1.000
Animalpr7	312	0.641	0.118	0.372	0.931

Table 9. Joint probabilities of success or failure of animal management, climate change adaptation strategy

Variable	Obs	Mean	Std. Dev.	Min	Max
Animaljpr1s	312	0.168	0.085	0.030	0.491
Animaljpr0s	312	0.009	0.007	0.000	0.051