Modeling land use dynamics in the Kesem sub-basin, Awash River basin, Ethiopia

Figures & data

Figure 1. Location and elevation map of the study area.

Figure 2. Flow chart showing the general methodology of land use/cover evaluation (Source: Bekele et al., 2018).

Table 1. Confusion matrix of land use/cover classification

Land Use and Land Cover type
Classified LULC type	Agricultural land	Bare land	Eucalyptus	Forest	Settlement	Shrub land	Grass land	Water body	Total	User accuracy (%)
Agricultural land	106.50	6.85	0.00	0.06	11.23	3.01	3.33	0.00	130.98	81.31
Bare land	1.00	64.20	1.25	0.88	2.80	8.23	1.00	0.00	79.36	81.00
Eucalyptus	3.00	0.67	76.12	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.69	0.00	83.48	91.18
Forest	0.00	0.00	11.50	63.00	0.26	6.52	0.04	0.00	81.32	77.50
Settlement	0.04	0.84	0.00	4.00	78.24	5.51	0.02	0.00	88.65	88.26
Shrub land	1.00	0.88	3.00	3.33	6.89	73.00	0.00	1.20	89.30	81.75
Grass land	14.00	1.98	6.40	3.56	0.00	0.00	73.00	0.00	98.94	73.78
Water body	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.00	33.00	100.00
Total	125.54	75.42	98.27	74.83	99.42	90.26	77.75	34.20	567.06
Producer accuracy (%)	84.83	85.12	77.50	84.20	78.70	80.90	93.89	96.50

Overall accuracy = 85.205%; Kappa statics = 0.824.

Table 2. Description of each land use/cover type in the study area

Land use/cover classes	Description of each land use class
Agricultural land	Areas allotted to rainfed crop cultivation both annuals and perennials, mostly of cereals in subsistence farming within the cultivated fields
Forest	Areas covered by trees forming closed or nearly closed canopies; forest; plantation forest; dense (50–80% crown cover) predominant species like Juniperus procera
Shrub land	Land covered by small trees, bushes, and shrubs, in some cases mixed with grasses; less dense than forests
Settlement	Areas covered by the scattered rural settlements and small town.
Grass land	These are lands where small grasses are the predominant natural vegetation. It also includes land with scattered or patches of trees and it is used for grazing and browsing
Bare Land	Which are parts of the land surface which is mainly covered by bare soil and exposed rock
Acacia	Areas covered by wattles or acacias, a large genus of shrubs and trees in the sub family of Mimosoideae
Water body	Area covered by a small dammed lake fed by rainfall and small streams

Figure 3. LULC map of the Kesem sub-basin in 1986.

Table 3. Land use/cover change in Kesem sub-basin from 1986 to 2013

	LULC total area in km^2 and %						LULC Change in km^2 and %
	1986		2000		2013		1986–2000		2000–2013		1986–2013
	Area (km^2)	%	Area (km^2)	%	Area (km^2)	%	Area (km^2)	%	Area (km^2)	%	Area (km^2)	%
Acacia	1077.00	46.32	497.00	21.38	242.00	10.41	−580.00	−16.70	−255.00	−5.37	−835.00	−27.45
Agricultural land	870.00	37.42	1499.00	64.47	1795.99	77.25	629.00	41.96	296.99	16.54	925.99	11.79
Bare land	-	-	14.00	0.60	15.00	0.65	14.00	100.00	1.00	6.67	−11.00	6.67
Eucalyptus	26.00	1.12	34.00	1.46	10.00	0.43	8.00	23.53	−24.00	−40.00	7.00	−66.67
Forest	3.00	0.13	1.00	0.04	49.00	2.11	−2.00	−66.70	48.00	97.96	47.00	95.83
Settlement	2.00	0.09	3.00	0.13	4.00	0.17	1.00	33.33	1.00	25.00	−343.00	200.00
Shrub land	347.00	14.92	277.00	11.91	206.00	8.86	−70.00	−25.27	−71.00	−34.47	−141.00	−40.63
Grass land	-	-	-	-	0.01	0.0004	-		0.01	100.00	0.01	100.00
Water body	-	-	-	-	3.00	0.13	-		3.00		3.00	100.00
Total	2,325.00		2,325.00		2,325.00

Figure 4. LULC map of the Kesem sub-basin in 2000.

Figure 5. LULC map of the sub-basin in 2013.

Table 4. Land use/cover transition matrix area in km² and percent from 1986 to 2013

LULC transition matrix area in km^2 and percent
	Ac		AGR		BL		Euc		FS		SETL		ShL		GL		WB
1986–2000	Km^2	%	Km^2	%	Km^2	%	Km^2	%	Km^2	%	Km^2	%	Km^2	%	Km^2	%	Km^2	%
Ac	370	74	578.6	39	1.2	9	0.1	0.0	0.1	10	0	0.0	127	46	-	-	-	-
AGR	20	4	846.1	56	0	0.0	3.5	10	0	0.0	2	7	0.2	0.0	-	-	-	-
BL	3	1	1	0.0	3	21	2	6	0	0.0	0	0.0	5	2	-	-	-	-
Euc	0	0.0	1.6	0.0	0.4	3	23	68	0	0.0	0	0.0	1	0.0	-	-	-	-
FS	0	0.0	1.1	0.0	0	0.0	1	3	0.9	90	0	0.0	0	0.0	-	-	-	-
SETL	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	2	67	0	0.0	-	-	-	-
ShL	104	21	70.6	5	9.4	67	4.4	13	0	0.0	0.8	27	143.8	52	-	-	-	-
GL	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	-	-	-	-
WB	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	-	-	-	-
Total	497	100	1499	100	14	100	34	100	1	100	3	100	277	100
2000–2013
Ac	178	74	229	13	1.2	8	0.1	1	0.1	0.0	0	0.0	88.6	0.43	0	0.0	0	0.0
AGR	13	5	1435.4	80	0.5	3	3.5	35	23.6	48	0.5	13	4.09	0.02	0	0.0	0.2	7
BL	3	1	1	0.0	3.5	23	2	20	2.4	5	0	0.0	1.5	0.01	0	0.0	0.6	20
Euc	0	0.0	7	0.0	2.4	16	6	60	17.6	36	0	0.0	1	0.00	0	0.0	0	0.0
FS	0	0.0	1.1	0.0	0	0.0	1	10	1.9	4	0	0.0	0	0.00	0	0.0	0	0.0
SETL	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0.4	1	2.6	65	0	0.00	0	0.0	0	0.0
ShL	48	20	121.5	0.7	7.4	49	4.4	44	3	6	1.9	48	110.8	0.54	0	0.0	0	0.0
GL	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0.01	0.0	0.01	100	0	0.0
WB	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	2.2	73
Total	242	100	1795	100	15	100	10	1	49	100	4	100	206	100	0.01	100	3	100

AGR = Agricultural land, Ac = acacia, ShL = shrub, FS = forest, GL = grassland, BL = bare land, Euc = eucalyptus, SETL = settlement and WB = water body.

Table 5. Land use/cover change drivers and effects as perceived by the local people

Land use/cover change	Drivers	Causes
Increment of Agricultural land and settlement	Demographic factor Biophysical factor Economic factor	Increasing population Migration of people from other area. Reduction of land productivity Rainfall variability Less or no job alternate for the generation
Decrement of acacia	Demographic factor Biophysical factor Policy and Institution factor	Increasing population Reduction of land productivity Settlement policy
Expansion of degraded land	Technologic factor Economic factor	Over utilization of land Cultivation of steep slope No or less fallow period of cultivable land
Increasing of plantation area	Cultural factor Policy and Institution factor	Improving awareness of the society Land management policy

Source: Own study.

Bekele, D., Alamirew, T., Kebede, A., Zeleke, G., & Melesse, A. (2018). Land use and land cover dynamics in the Keleta watershed, Awash River basin, Ethiopia, Environmental Hazards. 18(3), 246-265. https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2018.1561407

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