Teacher shortages and educational outcomes in developing countries: Empirical evidence from PISA-Thailand

Figures & data

Table 1. Average proportion of teachers classified by school types and affiliation (percent)

Variables	Proportion of teachers with teaching certificates	Proportion of teachers with a bachelor’s degree	Proportion of in-service teachers	Proportion of teachers without a college degree in Education
Government schools	99.1	75.8	97.5	24.5
Private schools	98.6	58.0	88.9	48.1
OBEC 1	100.0	46.2	99.6	8.8
OBEC 2	99.3	89.4	96.9	20.6
OPEC	98.8	49.6	88.6	44.8
Bangkok Administration	97.5	64.9	100.0	41.3
OCDLE	98.7	69.0	98.8	24.8
Satit Schools	96.9	78.3	90.2	39.9
OVEC 1	98.5	68.5	91.5	52.3
OVEC 2	100.0	70.4	97.4	43.4

Source: Analyzed from PISA–Thailand in 2015.

Table 2. Percent of school samples reporting teacher shortages classified by subjects and by school size, comparing 2009 and 2015

School size					PISA–2015
	No teacher shortage	Slight shortage	Moderate shortage	Large shortage	No teacher shortage	Slight shortage	Moderate shortage	Large shortage
Reading
Small schools	27.8	38.9	25.0	8.3	17.0	17.0	47.2	18.9
Medium schools	37.0	43.5	15.2	4.4	37.7	18.9	26.4	17.0
Large schools	23.7	50.0	21.1	5.3	43.8	18.8	34.4	3.1
Special large schools	56.0	30.8	8.8	4.4	46.0	18.0	26.0	10.0
Mathematics
Small schools	25.0	36.1	13.9	25.0	20.8	18.9	30.2	30.2
Medium schools	37.0	32.6	19.6	10.8	30.2	20.8	35.9	13.2
Large schools	36.8	36.8	23.7	2.6	31.3	18.8	37.5	12.5
Special large schools	34.1	39.6	17.6	8.8	42.0	22.0	27.0	9.0
Science
Small schools	13.9	44.4	22.2	19.4	25.9	13.0	35.2	25.9
Medium schools	39.1	39.1	17.4	4.4	35.9	15.1	32.1	17.0
Large schools	39.5	42.1	10.5	7.9	40.6	9.4	37.5	12.5
Special large schools	37.0	48.9	12.0	2.2	41.0	23.0	31.0	5.0

Source: Calculated from PISA–Thailand assessment results in 2003–2015 year round.

Table 3. Percent of the school sample reporting teacher shortages classified by subjects and by school location, comparing 2009 and 2015

School location					PISA–2015
	No teacher shortage	Slight shortage	Moderate shortage	Large shortage	No teacher shortage	Slight shortage	Moderate shortage	Large shortage
Reading
Villages	27.5	35.3	29.4	7.8	22.5	14.3	51.0	12.2
Small communities	43.2	40.9	4.6	11.4	30.4	19.6	23.9	26.1
Large communities	37.0	51.9	9.3	1.9	37.1	21.4	31.4	10.0
Urban areas	57.1	26.2	14.3	2.4	50.9	18.9	24.5	5.7
Large cities	50.0	30.0	20.0	0	55.0	10.0	25.0	10.0
Mathematics
Villages	19.6	35.3	21.6	23.5	18.4	16.3	34.7	30.6
Small communities	45.5	31.8	18.2	4.6	23.9	23.9	45.7	6.5
Large communities	29.6	40.7	20.4	9.3	35.7	25.7	24.3	14.3
Urban areas	40.5	31.0	19.1	9.5	41.5	20.8	30.2	7.6
Large cities	40.0	55.0	5.0	0	60.0	5.0	15.0	20.0
Science
Villages	15.7	49.0	21.6	13.7	28.6	8.2	40.8	22.5
Small communities	36.4	43.2	13.6	6.8	36.2	21.3	31.9	10.6
Large communities	38.9	44.4	9.3	7.4	31.4	24.3	31.4	12.9
Urban areas	41.9	41.9	16.3	0	41.5	17.0	32.1	9.4
Large cities	45.0	45.0	10.0	0	60.0	5.0	25.0	10.0

Source: Calculated from PISA–Thailand assessment results in 2006–2015 year round.

Table 4. Teacher shortage and educational outcomes

Variables	Reading	Mathematics	Science
Thai language teacher shortage
No shortage	437.10	437.04	443.62
Slight shortage	421.88	420.85	427.53
Moderate shortage	423.27	424.62	432.82
Large shortage	417.85	417.99	425.69
Mathematics teacher shortage
No shortage	437.96	437.97	443.87
Slight shortage	424.31	423.01	431.34
Moderate shortage	427.18	425.59	433.96
Large shortage	416.45	421.07	427.01
Science teacher shortage
No shortage	434.27	435.27	441.45
Slight shortage	425.02	424.69	431.7
Moderate shortage	428.02	424.87	434.49
Large shortage	417.98	423.34	428.17

Source: Calculated from PISA assessment results in 2015 year round.

Table 5. Variables used in estimating education production function

Variable	Details
Dependent variables
Educational outcomes in reading Educational outcomes in mathematics Educational outcomes in science	Continuous variables Continuous variables Continuous variables
Independent variables (teacher factors)
Student-teacher ratio	Continuous variables
Mathematics teacher shortage	Dummy variables equal 1 when schools have mathematics teacher shortage and equal 0 when schools do not have mathematics teacher shortage.
Science teacher shortage	Dummy variables equal 1 when schools have science teacher shortage and equal 0 when schools do not have science teacher shortage.
Thai language teacher shortage	Dummy variables equal 1 when schools have Thai language teacher shortage and equal 0 when schools do not have Thai language teacher shortage.
Number of teachers having teaching certificate Number of teachers with a bachelor’s degree	Continuous variables Continuous variables
Control variables (school factors)
School types	Dummy variables in 3 groups: government schools, private schools financially supported, and private schools not financially supported by the government. Government schools are the reference group.
School affiliation	Dummy variables in 8 groups are OBEC 1, OBEC 2, OPEC 2, Bangkok Administration, Office of Coordination and Development of Local Education (OCDLE), demonstration schools under a university’s faculty of education (Satit), OVEC 1, and OVEC 2. The reference group is OBEC 1.
Region	Dummy variables in six groups are central, north, south, east, west, and northeastern regions. The reference group is the northeastern region as it is the poorest region in Thailand.
School location	Dummy variables in 3 groups are rural area, urban area, and large city. The reference group is rural area.
School size	Dummy variables in seven groups are schools having not greater than 120 students, schools having between 121–200 students, schools having between 201–300 students, schools having between 301–499 students, schools having between 500–1,499 students, schools having between 1,500–2,499 students, and schools having more than 2,500 students.
Quality index of teaching and learning resources	Continuous variables
Classification of students based on their abilities	Dummy variables in 3 groups are: no classification for all subjects, classified by some subjects, and classified by all subjects. The reference group is no classification for all subjects.
Year variables	Dummy variables in 4 groups are 2006, 2009, 2012, and 2015. The reference group is 2006.

Table 6. Estimated results

Variables	Students’ educational outcomes
	Reading	Mathematics	Science
Teacher resource factors
Student-teacher ratio	−0.0008	−0.0007	−0.0006
	[0.001]	[0.001]	[0.001]
Mathematics teacher shortage	−0.0209	−0.0298*	−0.0135
	[0.014]	[0.016]	[0.013]
Science teacher shortage	0.0039	−0.0002	−0.0024
	[0.013]	[0.015]	[0.013]
Thai language (reading) teacher shortage	0.012	0.0222	0.0201
	[0.013]	[0.015]	[0.013]
Number of teachers having a teaching certificate	0.0008***	0.0006**	0.0007***
	[0.000]	[0.000]	[0.000]
Number of teachers with a bachelor’s degree	0.0001	0.0002	0.0001
	[0.000]	[0.000]	[0.000]
(Mathematics teacher shortage) x (number of teachers having a teaching certificate)	−0.0001	−0.0001	−0.0002
	[0.001]	[0.001]	[0.001]
(Science teacher shortage) x (number of teachers having a teaching certificate)	−0.0003	0.0002	0.0003
	[0.001]	[0.001]	[0.001]
(Thai language teacher shortage) x (number of teachers having a teaching certificate)	−0.0004	0.0001	−0.0005
	[0.001]	[0.001]	[0.001]
(Mathematics teacher shortage) x (number of teachers with a bachelor’s degree)	0.0003	0.0004	0.0003
	[0.001]	[0.001]	[0.001]
(Science teacher shortage) x (number of teachers with a bachelor’s degree)	0.0004	−0.0002	−0.0003
	[0.001]	[0.001]	[0.001]
(Thai language teacher shortage) x (number of teachers with a bachelor’s degree)	0.0003	−0.0001	0.0003
	[0.001]	[0.001]	[0.001]
School types (reference: government schools)
Private schools that were not financially supported by the government	−0.1032*	−0.038	−0.1042*
	[0.061]	[0.072]	[0.062]
Private schools that were financially supported by the government	−0.1451**	−0.0811	−0.1359**
	[0.058]	[0.069]	[0.059]
School affiliation (reference: OBEC 1)
OBEC 2	0.0341***	−0.0109	0.0067
	[0.012]	[0.012]	[0.011]
OPEC 2	0.1279**	0.0172	0.0872
	[0.060]	[0.072]	[0.061]
Bangkok Administration	−0.0704***	−0.0897***	−0.0945***
	[0.017]	[0.019]	[0.016]
OCDLE	−0.0123	−0.0478***	−0.0395***
	[0.015]	[0.017]	[0.015]
Satit Schools	0.1583***	0.1535***	0.1477***
	[0.018]	[0.020]	[0.017]
OVEC 1	0.0759	−0.044	0.0278
	[0.061]	[0.072]	[0.062]
OVEC 2	−0.0806***	−0.1020***	−0.0895***
	[0.016]	[0.019]	[0.016]
Regions (reference: the northeastern region)
Central	0.0313***	0.0337***	0.0286***
	[0.009]	[0.011]	[0.009]
North	0.0200**	0.0251**	0.0236***
	[0.009]	[0.010]	[0.009]
South	0.0042	−0.0071	0.0028
	[0.010]	[0.012]	[0.010]
East	0.0121	0.0084	0.0164
	[0.014]	[0.016]	[0.014]
West	0.0378***	0.0460***	0.0322***
	[0.012]	[0.014]	[0.012]
School location (reference: rural areas)
Urban areas	0.0228***	0.0168*	0.0185**
	[0.009]	[0.010]	[0.009]
Large cities	0.0327***	0.0449***	0.0398***
	[0.012]	[0.014]	[0.012]
School size (reference: fewer or equal to 120 students)
121–200 students	0.0194	0.0769**	0.0699**
	[0.031]	[0.035]	[0.030]
201–300 students	0.0338	0.0599*	0.0541*
	[0.029]	[0.033]	[0.028]
301–499 students	0.0094	0.0287	0.037
	[0.028]	[0.032]	[0.027]
500–1,499 students	0.0595**	0.0538*	0.0758***
	[0.029]	[0.032]	[0.028]
1,500–2,499 students	0.0893***	0.0887***	0.1066***
	[0.030]	[0.034]	[0.029]
Greater than 2,500 students	0.1442***	0.1486***	0.1609***
	[0.030]	[0.034]	[0.029]
Quality index of teaching and learning resources in schools	0.0124***	0.0139***	0.0139***
	[0.003]	[0.004]	[0.003]
Student classification by their ability levels (reference: no classification for all subjects)
Classified by some subjects	−0.0091	−0.0125	−0.0181**
	[0.008]	[0.009]	[0.008]
Classified by all subjects	−0.0122	−0.0142	−0.0197**
	[0.009]	[0.011]	[0.009]
Year variables (reference: 2006).
2009	−0.0111	0.0022	−0.0175**
	[0.009]	[0.010]	[0.009]
2012	0.0023	0.0082	−0.0074
	[0.009]	[0.010]	[0.009]
2015	0.0452***	0.0328***	0.0471***
	[0.010]	[0.011]	[0.010]
Constant value	6.0384***	6.0166***	6.016***
	[0.020]	[0.044]	[0.037]
Number of schools	838	838	838

Remark: * = p<0.1, ** = p<0.05, *** = p<0.01; Standard Errors are in parenthesis.

Table 7. Estimation results of teacher factor affecting educational outcomes in reading classified by school affiliation

Variables	OBEC 1	OBEC 2	OPEC 2	Bangkok Administration	OCDLE	Satit Schools	OVEC 1	OVEC 2
Student-teacher ratio	−0.0064**	0.0012	−0.0015	−0.003	0.0032**	0.0003	−0.0014	0.0001
	[0.0029]	[0.0008]	[0.0025]	[0.0041]	[0.0016]	[0.0020]	[0.0014]	[0.0019]
Mathematics teacher shortage.	−0.0332	−0.0201	−0.1871***	0.1718	0.01	0.0447	0.1620*	0.0315
	[0.0653]	[0.0175]	[0.0527]	[0.1030]	[0.0297]	[0.0605]	[0.0946]	[0.0686]
Science teacher shortage	−0.0182	0.0155	0.2340***	0.0105	0.04	0.0743**	−0.0981	0.0135
	[0.0514]	[0.0173]	[0.0689]	[0.0525]	[0.0266]	[0.0281]	[0.1022]	[0.0458]
Thai language teacher shortage	0.0648	−0.0208	0.0762*	−0.1388	−0.0086	−0.1552**	0.0221	−0.062
	[0.0559]	[0.0142]	[0.0415]	[0.0850]	[0.0406]	[0.0716]	[0.0652]	[0.0803]
Number of teachers having teaching certificate	0.0102	0.0014	−0.0015*	0.0109	0.0054	−0.0002	0.0016**	0.0018
	[0.0120]	[0.0018]	[0.0008]	[0.0076]	[0.0034]	[0.0002]	[0.0006]	[0.0015]
Number of teachers with a bachelor’s degree	−0.0109	−0.0006	0.0015*	−0.0103	−0.0035	0.0004*	−0.0006	−0.0014
	[0.0135]	[0.0018]	[0.0008]	[0.0076]	[0.0028]	[0.0002]	[0.0004]	[0.0013]
(Mathematics teacher shortage) x (number of teachers having teaching certificate)	0.0132	−0.0022	−0.0036**	−0.001	0.0042	−0.0077***	0.0049	0.0098***
	[0.0251]	[0.0017]	[0.0015]	[0.0077]	[0.0056]	[0.0016]	[0.0033]	[0.0032]
(Science teacher shortage) x (number of teachers having a teaching certificate)	−0.0224	−0.0011	0.0015*	−0.0150*	−0.0059	0.0060***	−0.0075***	−0.0106***
	[0.0160]	[0.0018]	[0.0009]	[0.0083]	[0.0399]	[0.0017]	[0.0021]	[0.0031]
(Thai language shortage) x (number of teachers having a teaching certificate)	0.0044	0.0020**	0.0004	0.0037	0.0026	0.0031*	−0.0024	−0.0006
	[0.0218]	[0.0008]	[0.0010]	[0.0072]	[0.0382]	[0.0016]	[0.0027]	[0.0022]
(Mathematics teacher shortage) x (number of teachers with a bachelor’s degree)	−0.0141	0.0024	0.0034**	−0.0015	−0.0038	0.0070***	−0.0058	−0.0090***
	[0.0260]	[0.0016]	[0.0014]	[0.0072]	[0.0057]	[0.0019]	[0.0036]	[0.0029]
(Science teacher shortage) x (number of teachers with a bachelor’s degree)	0.0251	0.001	−0.0034***	0.0152*	0.0061	−0.0061***	0.0070**	0.0093***
	[0.0163]	[0.0018]	[0.0009]	[0.0080]	[0.0397]	[0.0017]	[0.0029]	[0.0026]
(Thai language shortage) x (number of teachers with a bachelor’s degree)	−0.0067	−0.0019**	0.0007	−0.0019	−0.0034	−0.001	0.0016	0.0012
	[0.0215]	[0.0008]	[0.0010]	[0.0068]	[0.0380]	[0.0020]	[0.0027]	[0.0025]
Number of samples (person)	1,085	10,424	1,266	870	1,149	1,324	849	1,086

Remark: * = p<0.1, ** = p<0.05, *** = p<0.01; Standard Errors are in parenthesis. Control variables related to students’ personal characteristics, students’ family background, and school factor were included.

Table 8. Estimation results of teacher factor affecting educational outcomes in mathematics classified by school affiliation

Variables	OBEC 1	OBEC 2	OPEC 2	Bangkok Administration	OCDLE	Satit Schools	OVEC 1	OVEC 2
Student-teacher ratio	−0.0052**	0.0006	−0.0018	−0.0068	0.0039**	−0.0001	0.0001	0.002
	[0.0026]	[0.0009]	[0.0026]	[0.0061]	[0.0017]	[0.0017]	[0.0013]	[0.0019]
Mathematics teacher shortage.	−0.0624	−0.0089	−0.2483***	0.2441*	0.0569*	0.085	0.0253	−0.1350**
	[0.0761]	[0.0203]	[0.0618]	[0.1377]	[0.0317]	[0.0514]	[0.0746]	[0.0640]
Science teacher shortage	−0.0388	−0.003	0.2060**	−0.1995***	0.0248	0.1019***	0.1533	−0.0023
	[0.0718]	[0.0216]	[0.0859]	[0.0558]	[0.0268]	[0.0287]	[0.1053]	[0.0527]
Thai language teacher shortage	0.0126	−0.0237	0.1571***	−0.1251	0.0298	−0.2739***	0.0004	0.0952
	[0.0624]	[0.0170]	[0.0533]	[0.1360]	[0.0353]	[0.0640]	[0.0647]	[0.0797]
Number of teachers having a teaching certificate	0.0027	0.0033*	−0.0011	0.0026	0.0073**	−0.0004**	0.0014**	−0.0007
	[0.0129]	[0.0018]	[0.0009]	[0.0082]	[0.0031]	[0.0002]	[0.0006]	[0.0014]
Number of teachers with a bachelor’s degree	−0.0052	−0.0024	0.0013	−0.0024	−0.0026	0.0007***	−0.0002	0.0011
	[0.0138]	[0.0018]	[0.0009]	[0.0084]	[0.0027]	[0.0002]	[0.0004]	[0.0012]
(Mathematics teacher shortage) x (number of teachers having teaching certificate)	0.0056	−0.0031	−0.0030*	−0.0122*	0.0071*	−0.0037**	−0.0084**	0.0059**
	[0.0275]	[0.0022]	[0.0017]	[0.0069]	[0.0042]	[0.0014]	[0.0034]	[0.0024]
(Science teacher shortage) x (number of teachers having a teaching certificate)	−0.0061	−0.0008	0.0036***	0.0018	0.0597	0.0029*	0.003	−0.0076***
	[0.0198]	[0.0022]	[0.0010]	[0.0093]	[0.0386]	[0.0015]	[0.0020]	[0.0024]
(Thai language shortage) x (number of teachers having a teaching certificate)	−0.0036	0.0022**	−0.0018	0.0121*	−0.0652*	0.0031**	0.0049**	0.0041**
	[0.0255]	[0.0010]	[0.0011]	[0.0063]	[0.0370]	[0.0014]	[0.0023]	[0.0018]
(Mathematics teacher shortage) x (number of teachers with a bachelor’s degree)	−0.0064	0.0031	0.0036**	0.0069	−0.0074	0.0026	0.0060*	−0.0039*
	[0.0288]	[0.0021]	[0.0016]	[0.0069]	[0.0044]	[0.0016]	[0.0036]	[0.0023]
(Science teacher shortage) x (number of teachers with a bachelor’s degree)	0.0001	0.0009	−0.0048***	0.0019	−0.0585	−0.0032**	−0.0048	0.0068***
	[0.0207]	[0.0021]	[0.0013]	[0.0086]	[0.0383]	[0.0015]	[0.0031]	[0.0023]
(Thai language shortage) x (number of teachers with a bachelor’s degree)	0.0041	−0.0019*	0.0017	−0.0107	0.0632*	0.0001	−0.0033	−0.0049**
	0.0001	0.0009	-0.0048***	0.0019	-0.0585	-0.0032**	-0.0048	0.0068***
Number of samples (person)	1,085	10,424	1,266	870	1,149	1,324	849	1,086

Remark: * = p<0.1, ** = p<0.05, *** = p<0.01; Standard Errors are in parenthesis. Control variables related to students’ personal characteristics, students’ family background, and school factor were included.

Table 9. Estimation results of teacher factor affecting educational outcomes in science classified by school affiliation

Variables	OBEC 1	OBEC 2	OPEC 2	Bangkok Administration	OCDLE	Satit Schools	OVEC 1	OVEC 2
Student-teacher ratio	−0.0037*	0.0013*	−0.0011	−0.0045	0.0049***	−0.0013	−0.0016	−0.0011
	[0.0019]	[0.0008]	[0.0025]	[0.0053]	[0.0013]	[0.0016]	[0.0020]	[0.0021]
Mathematics teacher shortage.	0.0024	−0.0108	−0.2006***	0.1773	0.0359	0.1089**	0.1526*	0.0805
	[0.0478]	[0.0159]	[0.0512]	[0.1205]	[0.0248]	[0.0533]	[0.0818]	[0.0812]
Science teacher shortage	−0.0503	0.0118	0.1488*	−0.0746	0.0287	0.0768***	−0.0209	0.0695
	[0.0402]	[0.0175]	[0.0756]	[0.0704]	[0.0244]	[0.0259]	[0.1148]	[0.0679]
Thai language teacher shortage	−0.0106	−0.0156	0.1541***	−0.1091	0.0317	−0.2392***	−0.0859	−0.1534
	[0.0380]	[0.0132]	[0.0415]	[0.1148]	[0.0321]	[0.0608]	[0.0834]	[0.0998]
Number of teachers having a teaching certificate	0.0079	0.0028*	−0.0018**	0.0058	0.0045**	−0.0002	0.0009	0.0011
	[0.0079]	[0.0016]	[0.0007]	[0.0073]	[0.0023]	[0.0002]	[0.0008]	[0.0018]
Number of teachers with a bachelor’s degree	−0.0104	−0.0019	0.0019***	−0.0052	−0.0019	0.0006***	−0.0002	−0.0009
	[0.0083]	[0.0016]	[0.0007]	[0.0075]	[0.0020]	[0.0002]	[0.0005]	[0.0017]
(Mathematics teacher shortage) x (number of teachers having teaching certificate)	−0.0018	−0.003	−0.0023*	−0.0193***	0.0054	−0.0034**	−0.0004	0.0126***
	[0.0188]	[0.0018]	[0.0013]	[0.0072]	[0.0044]	[0.0014]	[0.0040]	[0.0031]
(Science teacher shortage) x (number of teachers having a teaching certificate)	−0.0185*	−0.0007	0.0025***	0.0054	−0.0152	0.0028*	−0.0028	−0.0101***
	[0.0099]	[0.0019]	[0.0007]	[0.0092]	[0.0356]	[0.0014]	[0.0022]	[0.0033]
(Thai language shortage) x (number of teachers having a teaching certificate)	0.0101	0.0018**	−0.0017*	0.0002	0.0113	0.0024*	−0.0008	−0.0017
	[0.0174]	[0.0008]	[0.0010]	[0.0068]	[0.0342]	[0.0014]	[0.0031]	[0.0027]
(Mathematics teacher shortage) x (number of teachers with a bachelor’s degree)	−0.0001	0.0030*	0.0027**	0.0154**	−0.0058	0.0024	−0.002	−0.0121***
	[0.0189]	[0.0018]	[0.0013]	[0.0068]	[0.0046]	[0.0017]	[0.0040]	[0.0030]
(Science teacher shortage) x (number of teachers with a bachelor’s degree)	0.0217**	0.0007	−0.0034***	−0.0032	0.0156	−0.0030**	0.0022	0.0085***
	[0.0100]	[0.0018]	[0.0009]	[0.0087]	[0.0354]	[0.0014]	[0.0032]	[0.0032]
(Thai language shortage) x (number of teachers with a bachelor’s degree)	−0.0094	−0.0016*	0.0013	0.0017	−0.0126	0	0.002	0.0029
	[0.0172]	[0.0008]	[0.0009]	[0.0064]	[0.0340]	[0.0017]	[0.0028]	[0.0032]
Number of samples (person)	1,085	10,424	1,266	870	1,149	1,324	849	1,086

Remark: * = p<0.1, ** = p<0.05, *** = p<0.01; Standard Errors are in parenthesis. Control variables related to students’ personal characteristics, students’ family background, and school factor were included.