A dynamic nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model for the prediction of COVID-19 ‎cases in ‎Jordan

Figures & data

Table 1. The parameters that affect the spread of COVID-19 in Jordan.‎

Categories	Parameters
Primary parameters	Number of daily tests Population Governorate
Social characteristics	Awareness factor Index of one’s compliance to covid-19 precautions. Index of others’ compliance to covid-19 precautions Index of places’ compliance to covid-19 precautions Social lifestyle Number of households members
Sectors status	Religious sector (The number of prayers out of 5 allowed per day) Entertainment sector (e.g., Cafes/restaurants and recreational centers) Educational sector (The classes in schools and universities)
Lockdown	Lockdown status (The number of lockdown hours per day)

Figure 1. The distribution of the survey participants by the geographic location.

Table 2. The questions related to the 6 parameters of the social characteristics category.‎

Parameter	Question
Awareness factor	Do you consider Covid-19 a dangerous infectious virus? What is the percentage of your knowledge of the preventive measures related to the epidemic (Covid-19)? What is the percentage of your knowledge of the symptoms associated with infection with the virus (Covid-19)?
Index of one’s compliance to covid-19 precautions	Do you commit to wearing facemasks and what is the percentage of your commitment? Do you commit to sterilizing your hands and what is the percentage of your commitment? Do you commit to social distancing and what is the percentage of your commitment? What is the percentage of your commitment to government measures to prevent the spread of Covid-19?
Index of others’ compliance to covid-19 precautions	How do you see the percentage of community members’ commitment during social events (wedding, mourning, blessing, graduation) to preventive measures against Covid-19?
Index of places’ compliance to covid-19 precautions	At your workplace, what is the percentage of your workplace’s compliance with preventive measures against Covid-19 (in case you are not working, do not answer the question)? Do the places you visit impose preventive measures against Covid-19 and what is the percentage of that?
Social lifestyle	What is the percentage of your participation in social events imposed by the nature of social relations in Jordan (weddings, mourning, blessings, and graduations)? Approximately how many family meetings do you participate in per week? (Example: Brothers meet in the family home, cousins meeting, meeting grandfather and grandmother).
Number of households Members	How many people live with you in the same house (including yourself)?

Figure 2. The schematic architecture of the NARX neural network.

Figure 3. The flowchart of the NARX model development.

Figure 4. The prediction performance of the NARX model: (a) Training set, (b) Validation set, and (c) Testing set.

Figure 5. The time-series response for the numbers of actual and predicted COVID-19 cases in Jordan using the NARX model.

Figure 6. The predictive performance for the new data using the NARX.

Figure 7. An example of the actual (A) and the predicted (P) numbers of COVID-19 cases for the 12 governorates ‎in ‎Jordan on May 24th of 2021‎.

Figure 8. The time-series response for the numbers of actual and predicted COVID-19 cases in Jordan using the ARIMA model.

Figure 9. The time-series response for the numbers of actual and predicted COVID-19 cases in Jordan using the LSTM model.

Table 3. The overall predictive performance of the models

Models	Performance measures
	RMSE	R^2	R^2 Adjusted
NARX	28.23	0.971	0.969
ARIMA	107.21	0.938	0.933
LSTM	112.02	0.934	0.930