Drivers of capital inflow: Does global uncertainty matter?

Figures & data

Table 1. Summary statistics of the variables

Statistics	PI	DCI	TI	GDP	Yield	INTD	WUI	Debt	EXC
Mean	10.51	10.85	11.43	13.27	10.50	4.15	0.24	35.87	4.65
Median	10.01	10.03	10.72	13.27	9.50	4.92	0.14	35.40	2.70
Maximum	15.09	14.53	15.5	13.98	17.8	15.2	1.82	70.7	17.63
Minimum	4.65	7.43	7.79	12.22	4.75	−9.25	0.00	23.5	0.66
Std. Dev.	2.66	2.36	2.55	0.47	3.64	4.56	0.32	8.49	4.50
Skewness	0.15	0.25	0.23	0.33	0.40	−0.32	2.01	1.47	1.02
Kurtosis	1.64	1.64	1.65	2.31	1.97	2.79	7.55	6.38	2.95
Jarque-Bera	19.9	21.6	20.94	9.27	17.5	4.56	379.36	206.5	42.5
Probability	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Observations	247	247	247	247	247	247	247	247	247

Table 2. Correlation matrix

Statistics	PI	DCI	TI	GDP	Yield	INTD	WUI	Debt	EXC
PI	1	0.98	0.99	0.91	0.16	0.58	0.55	0.18	0.82
DCI	0.98	1	0.99	0.93	0.11	0.53	0.55	0.15	0.82
TI	0.99	0.99	1	0.93	0.13	0.56	0.56	0.19	0.83
GDP	0.91	0.93	0.93	1	0.25	0.53	0.55	0.24	0.85
Yield	0.16	0.11	0.13	0.25	1	0.59	−0.19	−0.15	−0.05
INTD	0.58	0.53	0.56	0.53	0.59	1	0.12	0.03	0.42
WUI	0.55	0.55	0.56	0.55	−0.19	0.12	1	0.36	0.65
Debt	0.18	0.15	0.19	0.24	−0.15	0.03	0.36	1	0.57
EXC	0.82	0.82	0.83	0.85	−0.05	0.42	0.65	0.57	1

Table 3. Time series properties

Variables	Panel A: ADF Test		Panel B: PP Test
	Level	1^st Diff	Level	1^st Diff
PI	0.4732	0.002*	0.530	0.000*
DCI	0.5748	0.000*	0.4965	0.000*
TI	0.6200	0.0000*	0.5668	0.000*
GDP	0.0951	0.0006*	0.0176	0.0000*
Yield	0.3373	0.0000*	0.4417	0.000*
INTD	0.0267	0.0000*	0.069	0.000*
WUI	0.0261	0.0000*	0.0000	0.000*
Debt	0.8238	0.002*	0.9930	0.000*
EXC	0.9879	0.000*	0.9840	0.000*

* Indicates parameter is significant at 5%

Figure 1. Time varying correlation coefficients between portfolio inflow and its determinants.

Figure 2. Time varying correlation coefficients between direct investment inflow and its determinants.

Figure 3. Time varying correlation coefficients between total investment inflow and its determinants.

Figure 4. Posterior distribution plot of portfolio inflow.

Table 4. BLR results with portfolio inflow as dependent variable

Statistics	Posterior mean	Posterior STD	2.5%	97.5%
Intercept	0.0198	4.3310	−7.3612	9.831
GDP	1.9400	1.2724	−0.5411	4.471
Debt	−0.03667	0.027	−0.09084	−0.0169
WUI	−0.0007	0.18282	−0.00746	0.0027
Yield	−0.0758	0.0748	−0.22300	0.07052
INTD	0.008642	0.03938	−0.06912	0.08562
EXC	0.1241	0.0990	−0.07021	0.3141

Figure 5. Posterior distribution plot of direct investment inflow.

Table 5. BLR results with direct investment inflow as dependent variable

Statistics	Posterior mean	Posterior STD	2.5%	97.5%
Intercept	1.522	2.4201	−3.20492	6.40202
GDP	2.94769	0.01530	1.56096	4.36144
Debt	−0.05512	0.01530	−0.08539	−0.02518
WUI	−0.04174	0.10216	−0.24140	−0.26232
Yield	−0.1554	0.04186	−0.12767	0.03635
INTD	0.02170	0.02200	0.02175	0.06471
EXC	−0.06399	0.05532	−0.17256	−0.04217

Figure 6. Posterior distribution plot of direct investment inflow.

Table 6. BLR results with total inflow as dependent variable

Statistics	Posterior mean	Posterior STD	2.5%	97.5%
Intercept	1.433	2.4604	−3.3627	6.4041
GDP	2.6947	0.7228	1.2849	4.132
Debt	−0.0506	0.01556	−0.0814	−0.0202
WUI	−0.0359	0.1038	−0.2389	−0.1715
Yield	−0.0491	0.04256	−0.1327	−0.0339
INTD	0.01557	0.0223	0.0286	0.05930
EXC	−0.01982	0.05624	−0.13020	0.08810