Poverty drivers and Nigeria’s development: Implications for policy intervention

Figures & data

Table 1. Indicators

Variables	Indicators	Source
Poverty	Depth of food deficit (DFD)	World Development Indicators (WDI)
Unemployment	Unemployment rate (ILO estimate)	WDI
Inflation rate	Inflation rate (consumer prices)	WDI
Public resources to austerity programmes	Net Official Development Assistance and Aid received (constant 2015 US$) (ODA)	WDI
Economic Growth	GDP per capita growth rate	WDI
Public Debt	External and Internal Debt (₦ Billion)	Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin

Source: As compiled by the authors

Table 2. Descriptive statistics of selected variables addressing poverty in Nigeria economy

	DFD	Unem	Inf	ODA	EcoG	PD
Mean	59.68	4.43	19.21	1.60E+09	1.945	4029.67
Maximum	140.00	7.06	72.84	1.13E+10	12.46	12,315.91
Minimum	35.00	3.70	5.38	1.94E+08	−4.46	444.65
Std. Dev.	27.79	0.65	17.95	2.39E+09	3.79	3137.97

Source: As compiled by the authors

Table 3. Correlation matrix of selected variables addressing poverty in Nigeria economy

	DFD	Unem	Inf	ODA	EcoG	PD
DFD	1
Unem	0.2608	1
Inf	0.7651	0.1672	1
ODA	−0.3771	−0.0519	−0.2636	1
EcoG	−0.4527	−0.3867	−0.5091	0.1255	1
PD	−0.5926	0.3265	−0.4413	0.1231	0.0948	1

Source: As compiled by the authors

Table 4. Phillips-Perron unit root tests of selected variables addressing poverty in Nigeria economy

	DFD	Unem	Inf	ODA	EcoG	PD
PP t-statistic	−8.5931	−4.4151	−4.9648	−2.1063	−2.0363	−1.8838
Probability	0.0000	0.0021	0.0006	0.0361	0.0421	0.0580
Level of Integration	I(0)	I(1)	I(1)	I(0)	I(0)	I(1)

Source: As compiled by the authors

Table 5. ARDL estimation results of Variables addressing poverty in Nigeria economy

Variables	Equation 11 $Po{v}_t={\beta }_0+{\beta }_{1}Une{m}_t+{\epsilon }_t$1	Variables	Equation 22 $Po{v}_t={\beta }_0+{\beta }_{1}Une{m}_t+{\beta }_{2}In{f}_t+{\beta }_{3}lnPRA{P}_t+{\epsilon }_t$2	Variables	Equation 44 $Po{v}_t={\beta }_0+{\beta }_{1}Une{m}_t+{\beta }_{2}In{f}_t+{\beta }_{3}lnPRA{P}_t+{\beta }_{4}Eco{G}_t+{\epsilon }_t$4	Variables	Equation 33 $Eco{G}_t={\alpha }_0+{\alpha }_{1}lnP{D}_t+{\mu }_t$3
Short-run coefficients
D(DFD(−1))	0.4445** (0.1622)	D(Unem)	1.4993** (0.5509)	D(DFD(−1))	−0.6020* (0.1887)	Dln(PD)	−0.8348 (1.9972)
D(DFD(−2))	0.0271 (0.1491)	D(Inf)	−0.0805** (0.0294)	D(Unem)	3.3151* (0.5527)	ECM(−1)	−0.5035** (0.1959)
D(DFD(−3))	−0.2642** (0.1081)	Dlog(ODA)	−0.7332 (0.5114)	D(Unem(−1))	8.9343* (2.0521)
D(Unem)	1.4205** (0.5515)	ECM(−1)	−0.2248* (0.0112)	D(Inf)	−0.0763* (0.0218)
D(Unem(−1))	3.3521*** (1.7674)			Dlog(ODA)	−0.9995** (0.3377)
ECM(−1)	−0.0937* (0.0225)			Dlog(ODA(−1))	0.9066** (0.4044)
				D(EcoG)	−0.2468** (0.0807)
				D(EcoG (−1))	−0.4218* (0.1087)
				ECM(−1)	−0.2082* (0.0283)
Long-run coefficients
Unem	−25.793 (34.313)	Unem	5.3907*** (2.8630)	Unem	−40.594*** (18.955)	lnPD	0.6913 (1.8033)
C	137.39 (137.25)	Inf	−0.1397 (0.1834)	Inf	−0.3472 (0.2198)	C	−3.5319 (14.5306)
		log(ODA)	−6.2297* (1.6337)	log(ODA)	−13.517* (2.5560)
		C	149.28* (37.009)	EcoG	2.5436 (1.4706)
				C	478.01* (119.83)
ARDL Bounds Test
F-statistic	4.9963	F-statistic	58.483	F-statistic	8.1442	F-statistic	2.0614
I0 Bound@5%	3.62	I0 Bound@5%	2.79	I0 Bound@5%	2.56	I0 Bound@5%	3.62
I1 Bound@5%	4.16	I1 Bound@5%	3.67	I1 Bound@5%	3.49	I1 Bound@5%	4.16
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test
F-statistic	0.0690 [0.9337]	F-statistic	0.3507 [0.7091]	F-statistic	2.3048 [0.1620]	F-statistic	0.2533 [0.7787]
ARCH Heteroscedasticity Test
F-statistic	2.3395 [0.1435]	F-statistic	0.1088 [0.7448]	F-statistic	0.0364 [0.8506]	F-statistic	0.0060 [0.9388]
CUSUMQ	Stable	CUSUMQ	Stable	CUSUMQ	Not Stable	CUSUMQ	Stable

Source: As compiled by the authors

Note: * indicates 1% level of significance, ** indicates 5% level of significance, and *** indicates 10% level of significance. The standard error is in parenthesis () while probability is in [].