How are school dropouts related to household characteristics? Analysis of survey data from Bangladesh

Figures & data

Figure 1. Distribution of sample households by region in Bangladesh.

Source: BDHS.

Table 1. Summary statistics

Variable	Unit	No. of obs.	Mean	Std. dev.
School Dropout Rate	Dropout/total children (in %)	8,672	49.653	43.484
Dropout	1 Y, 0 N	8,753	0.602	0.490
Number of dropout	Number	8,753	1.341	1.528
Region	Number (1–7)	8,753	3.960	2.012
Urban	Binary: 1 Y, 0 N	8,753	0.305	0.461
Islam	Binary: 1 Y, 0 N	8,753	0.903	0.296
MthrAge	Years	8,753	25.574	5.908
MthrEdu	Level (1–4)	8,753	1.387	0.884
FthrAge	Years	8,605	34.386	8.049
FthrEdu	Level (1–4)	8,747	1.280	1.017
FthrOccu	Category (1–5)	8,753	2.586	1.391
HHAge	Years	8,753	1.871	0.794
HHMale	Binary: 1 Y, 0 N	8,753	0.919	0.272
NumSons	Number	8,753	1.150	1.036
NumDauters	Number	8,753	1.156	1.072
NumChld5	Number	8,753	1.178	0.750
FamSize	Number	8,753	6.201	2.900
Eleccity	Binary: 1 Y, 0 N	7,876	0.600	0.490
Wealth	Level: 1–5	8,753	2.953	1.436
Wealth × FthrEdu		8,747	4.562	4.632
FthrEdu × FthrOccu		8,747	3.609	3.702
Bus	Binary: 1 Y, 0 N	8,744	0.508	0.500

Table 2. OLS model with and without interaction terms

Dependent variable: School dropout rate
School dropout rate	Model I (without interactions)	Model II (with interactions)
Region
Chittagong	0.53	0.71
	(0.38)	(0.50)
Dhaka	9.62***	9.97***
	(6.78)	(6.62)
Khulna	14.95***	15.30***
	(9.65)	(9.26)
Rajshahi	13.20***	13.20***
	(8.76)	(8.76)
Rangpur	15.37***	15.37***
	(10.35)	(10.35)
Sylhet	15.48***	15.37***
	(10.67)	(10.35)
Urban	−5.656***	−6.33***
	(−0.15)	(−6.40)
Islam	1.22	1.24
	(1.00)	(1.02)
MthrAge	0.07	0.07
	(0.67)	(0.69)
MthrEdu
Primary	−0.87	−0.88
	(−0.70)	(−0.80)
Secondary	−2.59***	−2.60***
	(−2.08)	(−2.08)
Higher	0.17*	0.13*
	(0.08)	(0.06)
FthrAge	0.1	0.1
	(1.41)	(1.41)
FthrEdu
Primary	−1.15	−1.13
	(−1.14)	(−1.12)
Secondary	−1.75	−1.71
	(−1.53)	(−1.49)
Higher	−1.76	−1.7
	(−1.03)	(−0.99)
FthrOccu
Low-skill service	−1.47	−1.45
	(−1.43)	(−1.41)
Business	−4.69***	−4.69***
	(−4.21)	(−4.21)
High skilled	−29.65***	−29.66***
	(−14.54)	(−14.54)
Others	−1.86*	−1.83*
	(−1.62)	(−1.59)
HHage
35–54	−0.2	−0.18
	(−0.21)	(−0.19)
55–74	−0.58	−0.6
	(−0.47)	(−0.48)
74–95	−42.00***	−42.00***
	(−18.05)	(−18.05)***
HHmale	0.43	0.45
	(0.29)	(0.31)
NumSons	6.86***	6.85***
	(13.08)	(13.07)
NumDauters	6.42***	6.42***
	(12.60)	(12.58)
NumChld5	0.79	0.78
	(1.32)	(1.30)
FamSize	−0.12	−0.12
	(−0.81)	(−0.81)
Eleccity	0.108	0.107
	(0.99)	(0.98)
Wealth
Poorer	0.104	0.105
	(0.88)	(0.90)
Middle	0.99	0.98
	(0.70)	(0.69)
Richer	−4.559***	−0.84**
	(−2.52)	(−0.53)
Richest	−53.50***	−53.51***
	(−29.15)	(−29.16)
Bus	0.04	0.04
	(0.06)	(0.06)
Wealth × FthrEdu		−0.77
		(−0.68)
FthrEdu × FthrOccu		1.56
		(1.37)
Constant	34.72	34.16
N	8,660	8,660
R^2	65.23%	68.24%

Note: t statistics in parentheses.

* p < 0.05.

** p < 0.01.

*** p < 0.001.

Table 3. OLS, fractional logit and beta models with and without interaction terms

Dependent variable: Dropout rate
Model	OLS	Fractional logit	Beta regression	OLS	Fractional Logit	Beta Regression
	Coefficients	Marginal effects	Marginal effects	Coefficients	Marginal effects	Marginal effects
	With interaction			Without interaction
Region
Chittagong	0.71	−0.0772	0.0233	0.53	−0.0843	0.0191
	(0.5)	(−0.92)	(0.38)	(0.38)	(−1.02)	(0.32)
Dhaka	9.97***	0.540***	0.291***	9.62***	0.527***	0.283***
	(6.62)	(5.75)	(4.50)	(6.78)	(5.96)	(4.63)
Khulna	15.30***	0.874***	0.447***	14.95***	0.860***	0.439***
	(9.26)	(8.47)	(6.34)	(9.65)	(8.84)	(6.63)
Rajshahi	13.20***	0.813***	0.396***	13.20***	0.797***	0.386***
	(8.76)	(8.25)	(5.69)	(8.76)	(8.78)	(5.98)
Rangpur	15.37***	0.900***	0.463***	15.37***	0.883***	0.453***
	(10.35)	(9.30)	(6.63)	(10.35)	(10.02)	(7.09)
Sylhet	15.37***	0.987***	0.450***	15.48***	0.969***	0.440***
	(10.35)	(9.91)	(6.57)	(10.67)	(10.82)	(7.10)
Urban	−6.33***	−0.0318	−0.00808	−5.656***	−0.0319	−0.00791
	(−6.40)	(−0.52)	(−0.21)	(−0.15)	(−0.52)	(−0.20)
Islam	1.24	0.11	0.0549	1.22	0.108	0.0545
	(1.02)	(1.46)	(1.06)	(1.00)	(1.44)	(1.05)
MthrAge	0.07	−0.000495	0.00308	0.07	−0.000541	0.003
	(0.69)	(−0.07)	(0.67)	(0.67)	(−0.08)	(0.66)
MthrEdu
Primary	−0.88	0.0117	−0.0153	−0.87	0.0122	−0.015
	(−0.80)	(0.2)	(−0.33)	(−0.70)	(0.21)	(−0.32)
Secondary	−2.60***	−0.0381	−0.065	−2.59***	−0.0379	−0.0645
	(−2.08)	(−0.54)	(−1.23)	(−2.08)	(−0.53)	(−1.22)
Higher	0.13*	−0.35	−0.00482	0.17*	−0.349	−0.00332
	(0.06)	(−1.88)	(−0.06)	(0.08)	(−1.87)	(−0.04)
FthrAge	0.1	0.0048	0.0031	0.1	0.00487	0.0031
	(1.41)	(1.11)	(1.04)	(1.41)	(1.13)	(1.04)
FthrEdu
Primary	−1.13	−0.0163	−0.0375	−1.15	−0.017	−0.0381
	(−1.12)	(−0.29)	(−0.87)	(−1.14)	(−0.30)	(−0.89)
Secondary	−1.71	0.016	−0.0542	−1.75	0.0144	−0.0557
	(−1.49)	(0.24)	(−1.11)	(−1.53)	(0.21)	(−1.14)
Higher	−1.7	−0.023	−0.0594	−1.76	−0.0258	−0.061
	(−0.99)	(−0.18)	(−0.83)	(−1.03)	(−0.20)	(−0.85)
FthrOccu
Low-skill service	−1.45	0.00626	−0.0478	−1.47	0.00571	−0.0484
	(−1.41)	(0.1)	(−1.09)	(−1.43)	(0.1)	(−1.11)
Business	−4.69***	−0.176**	−0.151**	−4.69***	−0.176**	−0.151**
	(−4.21)	(−2.65)	(−3.19)	(−4.21)	(−2.65)	(−3.19)
High skilled	−29.66***	−20.02***	−0.905***	−29.65***	−13.66***	−0.905***
	(−14.54)	(−114.54)	(−10.60)	(−14.54)	(−81.34)	(−10.60)
Others	−1.83*	−0.0474	−0.0621	−1.86*	−0.0485	−0.063
	(−1.59)	(−0.70)	(−1.27)	(−1.62)	(−0.72)	(−1.29)
HHAge
35–54	−0.18	−0.00281	0.00272	−0.2	−0.0029	0.00347
	(−0.19)	(−0.05)	−0.07	(−0.21)	(−0.05)	−0.09
55–74	−0.6	−0.0215	−0.033	−0.58	−0.0215	−0.0325
	(−0.48)	(−0.26)	(−0.62)	(−0.47)	(−0.26)	(−0.61)
74–95	−42.00***	−20.88***	−1.286***	−42.00***	−14.32***	−1.287***
	(−18.05)***	(−118.70)	(−13.29)	(−18.05)	(−88.33)	(−13.30)
HHMale	0.45	0.0421	0.00948	0.43	0.0413	0.0089
	(0.31)	−0.45	−0.15	−0.29	−0.44	−0.15
NumSons	6.85***	0.521***	0.138***	6.86***	0.521***	0.138***
	(13.07)	−15.02	−6.2	−13.08	−15.03	−6.21
NumDauters	6.42***	0.501***	0.118***	6.42***	0.501***	0.118***
	(12.58)	−15.31	−5.44	−12.6	−15.31	−5.46
NumChld5	0.78	0.0241	0.0359	0.79	0.0247	0.0362
	(1.3)	−0.65	−1.43	−1.32	−0.67	−1.43
FamSize	−0.12	−0.00494	−0.00377	−0.12	−0.00483	−0.00382
	(−0.81)	(−0.47)	(−0.59)	(−0.81)	(−0.46)	(−0.60)
Eleccity	0.107	−0.0146	0.0381	0.108	−0.0142	0.0382
	(0.98)	(−0.23)	(0.82)	(0.99)	(−0.23)	(0.82)
Wealth
Poorer	0.105	0.0935	0.0316	0.104	0.0932	0.0312
	(0.9)	−1.46	−0.63	−0.88	−1.46	−0.62
Middle	0.98	0.189*	0.0252	0.99	0.190*	0.0259
	(0.69)	(2.31)	(0.41)	(0.70)	(2.32)	(0.43)
Richer	−0.84**	0.162	−0.0305	−4.559***	0.164	−0.0299
	(−0.53)	(1.74)	(−0.45)	(−2.52)	(1.76)	(−0.44)
Richest	−53.51***	−21.11***	−1.527***	−53.50***	−14.24***	−1.526***
	(−29.16)	(−193.63)	(−19.62)	(−29.15)	(−134.33)	(−19.61)
Bus	0.04	0.0123	0.003	0.04	0.0121	0.00287
	(0.06)	(0.28)	(0.10)	(0.06)	(0.27)	(0.10)
Wealth × FthrEdu	−0.77	−0.0232	−0.0299
	(−0.68)	(−0.33)	(−0.62)
FthrEdu × FthrOccu	1.56	0.0529	0.05
	(1.37)	(0.73)	(1.03)
Constant	34.16	−1.369***	−0.378*	34.72	−1.348***	−0.364*
Scale constant			−1.277***			−1.277***
N	8,660	8,660	8,660	8,660	8,660	8,660
R^2	68.24%			65.23%

Note: t statistics in parentheses.

* p < 0.05.

** p < 0.01.

*** p < 0.001.

Table 4. Marginal effects from probit model with and without interaction terms

Dependent variable: Dropout (Binary)
School dropout	Model I	Model II
	(without interactions)	(with interactions)
Region
Chittagong	−0.01	−0.008
	(−0.65)	(−0.7)
Dhaka	0.05***	0.046***
	(4.87)	(−4.38)
Khulna	0.06***	0.062***
	(6.30)	(5.67)
Rajshahi	0.06***	0.061***
	(6.23)	(5.61)
Rangpur	0.06***	0.062***
	(6.34)	(5.7)
Sylhet	0.06***	0.063***
	(6.34)	(5.69)
Urban	0.002	0.002
	(0.70)	(0.7)
Islam	0.001	0.001
	(0.17)	(0.18)
MthrAge	−0.0004	−0.0004
	(−0.91)	(−0.91)
MthrEdu
Primary	−0.0008	−0.0008
	(−0.22)	(−0.22)
Secondary	−0.004	−0.004
	(−1.05)	(−1.04)
Higher	−0.017*	−0.017*
	(−1.47)	(−1.46)
FthrAge	0.0001	0.0001
	(0.23)	(0.22)
FthrEdu
Primary	0.0004	0.0004
	(0.14)	−0.14
Secondary	−0.001	−0.001
	(−0.280)	(−0.29)
Higher	−0.0022	−0.0022
	(−0.40)	(−0.40)
FthrOccu
Low skilled service	0.0007	−0.0022
	(0.24)	(−0.40)
Business	−0.0085***	−0.0084***
	(−2.00)	(−2.00)
Others	−0.0009*	−0.0008
	(−0.26)	(−0.25)
HHage
35–54	−0.0008	−0.0008
	(−0.26)	(−0.25)
55–74	0.0013	0.0013
	(0.37)	−0.37
HHmale	−0.0021	−0.0021
	(−0.41)	(−0.42)
NumSons	0.0686***	0.0687***
	(10.080)	(10.080)
NumDauters	0.0688***	0.0688***
	(10.15)	(10.15)
NumChld5	−0.0046**	−0.0047*
	(−1.86)	(−1.86)
FamSize	−0.0001	−0.001
	(−0.260)	(−0.260)
Eleccity	−0.0033	−0.0033
	(−1.05)	(−1.05)
Wealth
Poorer	0.0089***	0.0089***
	(2.15)	(2.15)
Middle	−0.0107***	−0.0106***
	(−2.270)	(−2.260)
Richer	−0.0095*	−0.0095*
	(−1.82)	(−1.82)
Bus	−0.0012	−0.0012
	(−0.52)	(−0.51)
Wealth × FthrEdu		−0.0016
		(−0.46)
FthrEdu × FthrOccu		0.001
		(0.30)
N	7,724	7,724

Note: t statistics in parentheses.

* p < 0.05.

** p < 0.01.

*** p < 0.001.

Table

Variable	VIF	(VIF)^2	Tolerance	R^2
Region	1.34	1.16	0.75	0.25
Urban	1.32	1.15	0.76	0.24
Islam	1.04	1.02	0.96	0.04
MthrAge	3.09	1.76	0.32	0.68
MthrEdu	1.94	1.39	0.52	0.48
FthrAge	2.38	1.54	0.42	0.58
FthrEdu	1.91	1.38	0.52	0.48
FthrOccu	1.11	1.05	0.90	0.10
HHAge	1.36	1.17	0.73	0.27
HHMale	1.05	1.03	0.95	0.05
NumSons	2.33	1.53	0.43	0.57
NumDauters	2.37	1.54	0.42	0.58
NumChld5	1.38	1.17	0.73	0.27
FamSize	1.44	1.20	0.70	0.30
Eleccity	2.07	1.44	0.48	0.52
Wealth	3.16	1.78	0.32	0.68
Bus	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.00
Wealth × FthrEdu	2.25	1.50	0.44	0.56
FthrEdu × FthrOccu	2.14	1.46	0.47	0.53

Table

Model I without interaction				Model II with interactions
	True				True
Classified	D	~D	Total	Classified	D	~D	Total
+	4,047	797	4,844	+	4,155	890	5,045
−	708	2,172	2,880	−	600	2,079	2,679
Total	4,755	2,969	7,724	Total	4,755	2,969	7,724
Classified + if predicted Pr(D) ≥ 0.5				Classified + if predicted Pr(D) ≥ 0.5
True D defined as dropout ≠ 0				True D defined as dropout ≠ 0
Sensitivity	Pr(+ | D)		85.11%	Sensitivity	Pr(+ | D)		87.38%
Specificity	Pr(− | ~D)		73.16%	Specificity	Pr(− | ~D)		70.02%
Positive predictive value	Pr(D | +)		83.55%	Positive predictive value	Pr(D | +)		82.36%
Negative predictive value	Pr(~D | −)		75.42%	Negative predictive value	Pr(~D | −)		77.60%
False + rate for true ~D	Pr(+ | ~D)		26.84%	False + rate for true ~D	Pr(+ | ~D)		29.98%
False − rate for true –D	Pr(− | D)		14.89%	False − rate for true −D	Pr(− | D)		12.62%
False + rate for classified +	Pr(~D | +)		16.45%	False + rate for classified +	Pr(~D | +)		17.64%
False − rate for classified −	Pr(D | −)		24.58%	False − rate for classified −	Pr(D | −)		22.40%
Correctly classified			80.52%	Correctly classified			80.71%