A statistical analysis of the social and environmental risks of the international trade in virtual water

Figures & data

Figure 1. The number of officially registered world water conflicts.

Source: Gleick and Heberger (2014).

Figure 2. Result of the cluster analysis.

Table 1. Estimation of the Heckman’s model

Dependent variable: $\text{Prob}\left\{G_i=1\right\}$-the probability of positive balance
j	Factors of choice $\left(k=7\right)$	$\widehat{\mathit{\delta }}$
1	Constant	−1.654956^**
2	Agriculture value added per worker (constant 2005 US$)	0.0000545^**
3	Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic meters)	0.0000456^**
4	GDP per person employed (constant 1990 PPP $)	0.0000259
5	Agricultural land (% of land area)	0.021521^**
6	Average precipitation in depth (mm per year)	0.000624^**
7	Water productivity, total (constant 2005 US$ GDP per cubic meter of total freshwater withdrawal)	−0.022271^*
	McFadden R^2 = 0. 322
	$H_0:{\mathit{\delta }}_j=0j=2,3,\dots ,7\text{Prob}\left({\mathit{\chi }}^2\right)=0.000$
Dependent variable: Y - positive balance of export and import		n1 = 39
j	Factors of change Y $\left(l=9\right)$	$\widehat{\mathit{\beta }}$
1	Constant	9697.1
2	Agriculture value added per worker (constant 2005 US$)	−0.000483
3	Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic meters)	0.000039
4	Charges for the use of intellectual property, receipts	−0.0000221^***
5	Air transport, freight (million t∙km)	7.483773^***
6	GDP per person employed (constant 1990 PPP $)	0.035762
7	Agricultural land (% of land area)	0.041678
8	Average precipitation in depth (mm per year)	−0.000356
9	Water productivity, total (constant 2005 US$ GDP per cubic meter of total freshwater withdrawal)	0.334328
	$\widehat{{\mathit{\sigma }}_{\mathit{ϵ}}}=11206\widehat{{\mathit{\sigma }}_{\mathit{ϵ}\mathit{\zeta }}}=-{6739}^{\ast }$
	$H_0:{\mathit{\beta }}_j=0j=2,3,\dots ,9\text{Prob}\left({\mathit{\chi }}^2\right)=0.003$

^* Significance level of the estimated parameters of the model at 0.1.

^** Significance level of the estimated parameters of the model at 0.05.

^*** Significance level of the estimated parameters of the model at 0.01.

Figure 3. Distribution of countries by the number of years during which the balance of export-import of agricultural products was positive.

Table 2. Assessing the impact of international trade flows of virtual water in agricultural production on the environmental risk factors

Variable	Groups
	1 group			2 group			3 group
	Nit	Meth	Org	Nit	Meth	Org	Nit	Meth	Org
Export, 2005 US$	0.63^***	1.36^***	3.91^**	−0.06	−0.08	−1.44	−0.60^***	−0.52^***	−16.18^***
Import, 2005 US$	−0.81^***	−1.88^***	−4.79	−0.01	0.02	0.15	1.19^***	1.20^***	22.36^***
Value addedper worker, 2005 US$	−0.01	0.33^*	−2.28	−0.07	−0.01	0.09	−0.48^*	−0.53^*	−35.41^**
GDP per person, 1990 PPP $	−0.11	−0.49	3.22	0.03	0.04	−2.81^**	0.09	−0.03	10.44^**
n	121	126	173	136	138	157	57	61	48

^* Significance level of the estimated parameters of the model at 0.1.

^** Significance level of the estimated parameters of the model at 0.05.

^*** Significance level of the estimated parameters of the model at 0.01.

Table 3. Assessing of the impact of international trade flows of virtual water in agricultural production on the rating of environmental sustainability

Variable	Groups
	1 group	2 group	3 group
Export, 2005 US$	−0.0000274	−0.000245^***	0.000413^**
Import, 2005 US$	−0.0000062	−0.0000621^**	−0.000108^*
Value added per worker, 2005 US$	−0.0000154	−0.000161^**	0.000154
GDP per person, 1990 PPP $	−0.000161^***	−0.000154	0.00000692^*
n	127	138	63

^* Significance level of the estimated parameters of the model at 0.1.

^** Significance level of the estimated parameters of the model at 0.05.

^*** Significance level of the estimated parameters of the model at 0.01.

Table 4. Assessing of the impact of international trade flows of virtual water in agricultural production on indicators of social risk

Variable	1 group			2 group			3 group
	Unemp	Migr	Gini	Unemp	Migr	Gini	Unemp	Migr	Gini
Export, 2005 US$	−0.0001^*	3.27	−0.00015^**	0.0001^*	−56.21^**	0.0002	0.0001	93.78^***	0.0000
Import, 2005 US$	0.0001	−4.17	0.00042^**	−0.0001^*	70.69^***	−0.0003	−0.0000	−51.75^*	0.0001
Value added per worker, 2005 US$	–	19.73	0.00004	–	−1.88	0.0002^***	–	54.86^*	0.0001
GDP per person, 1990 PPP $	−0.0002^**	11.52	0.00007	−0.0001^*	−9.04	−0.0002^**	−0.0002^*	−12.51	−0.0002^*
n	125	119	165	132	141	164	67	58	64

^* Significance level of the estimated parameters of the model at 0.1.

^** Significance level of the estimated parameters of the model at 0.05.

^*** Significance level of the estimated parameters of the model at 0.01.

Gleick, P., & Heberger, M. (2014). Water and conflict: Events, trends and analysis (2011–2012). In Peter H. Gleick and Associates (Ed.), The world’s water (Volume 8): The Biennial report on freshwater resources (pp. 159–171). Washington, DC: Island Press.

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