An econometric analysis of major Chinese food crops: An empirical study

Figures & data

Figure 1. Wheat production in China from 1980 to 2015.

Figure 2. Rice production in China from 1980 to 2015.

Figure 3. Cotton production in China from 1980 to 2015.

Figure 4. Sugarcane production in China from 1980 to 2015.

Figure 5. Corn production in China from 1980 to 2015.

Figure 6. Tuber production in China from 1980 to 2015.

Table 1. ADF unit root test including (trend and intercept)

Variables	At level		First difference
	t-statistic	Critical values	t-statistic	Critical values
ln GDP	−0.863039	1% −4.284580	−3.684241^**	1% −4.284580
	(0.9478)	5% −3.562882	(0.0387)	5% −3.562882
		10% −3.215267		10% −3.215267
ln OPCOTTON	−3.621234^**	1% −4.243644	−6.298653^*	1% −4.262735
	(0.0423)	5% −3.544284	(0.0001)	5% −3.552973
		10% −3.204699		10% −3.209642
ln OPCORN	−5.538038	1% −4.243644	−9.910920^*	1% −4.252879
	(0.0003)^*	5% −3.544284	(0.0000)	5% −3.548490
		10% −3.204699		10% −3.207094
ln OPRICE	−3.021694	1% −4.243644	−5.303921^*	1% −4.252879
	(0.1409)	5% −3.544284	(0.0007)	5% −3.548490
		10% −3.204699		10% −3.207094
ln OPSUGARCANE	−4.790393^*	1% −4.243644	−9.794996^*	1% −4.262735
	(0.0025)	5% −3.544284	(0.0002)	5% −3.552973
		10% −3.204699		10% −3.209642
ln OPTUBERS	−2.273653	1% −4.243644	−6.777595^*	1% −4.252879
	(0.4365)	5% −3.544284	(0.0000)	5% −3.548490
		10% −3.204699		10% −3.207094
ln OPWHEAT	−3.125710	1% −4.243644	−4.573942^*	1% −4.252879
	(0.1163)	5% −3.544284	(0.0045)	5% −3.548490
		10% −3.204699		10% −3.207094
ln LANDAREA	−1.655467	1% −4.252879	−4.278114^*	1% −4.252879
	(0.7489)	5% −3.548490	(0.0094)	5% −3.548490
		10% −3.207094		10% −3.207094

^* Level of significance at 1%.

^** Level of significance at 5%.

Table 2. Johansen co-integration test using Trace Statistic

Eigenvalue	Trace statistic	5% Critical value	Prob**	Hypothesized No. of CE(s)
0.981968	328.4223	159.5297	0.0000	None*
0.793591	191.8913	125.6154	0.0000	At most 1*
0.733736	138.2429	95.75366	0.0000	At most 2*
0.683398	93.25184	69.81889	0.0002	At most 3*
0.585857	54.14809	47.85613	0.0114	At most 4*
0.282078	24.17562	29.79707	0.1931	At most 5
0.250454	12.90820	15.49471	0.1182	At most 6
0.087316	3.106436	3.841466	0.0780	At most 7

Note: The Trace test indicates that the 5 co-integrating equation at the 0.05 level is appropriate.

^* Denotes rejection of the hypothesis is at the 0.05 level.

^** Indicates values are accurate.

Table 3. Johansen co-integration test using Max-Eigen statistic

Eigenvalue	Max-Eigen statistic	5% Critical value	Prob**	Hypothesized No. of CE(s)
0.981968	136.5310	52.36261	0.0000	None*
0.793591	53.64843	46.23142	0.0068	At most 1*
0.733736	44.99105	40.07757	0.0129	At most 2*
0.683398	39.10375	33.87687	0.0109	At most 3*
0.585857	29.97247	27.58434	0.0242	At most 4*
0.282078	11.26742	21.13162	0.6207	At most 5
0.250454	9.801768	14.26460	0.2253	At most 6
0.087316	3.106436	3.841466	0.0780	At most 7

Note: The Max-eigenvalue test indicates that the 5 co-integrating equation at the 0.05 level is appropriate.

^* Denotes rejection of the hypothesis is at the 0.05 level.

^** Indicates values are accurate.

Table 4. Regression analysis

Dependent variable: ln (AGDP)
Method: least squares
Sample: 1980–2015 Included observations: 36
Explanatory variable	Coefficient	Std. error	t-statistic	Prob.
C	−37.50079	53.81423	−0.696856	0.4916
ln (OPWHEAT)	5.625429	2.462039	2.284866	0.0301
ln (OPRICE)	−9.346193	5.726903	−1.631980	0.1139
ln (OPCOTTON)	2.673763	0.735022	3.637665	0.0011
ln (OPSUGARCANE)	0.489134	0.653759	0.748186	0.4606
ln (OPCORN)	0.490809	0.280599	1.749148	0.0912
ln (LANDAREA)	1.136971	3.697611	0.307488	0.7607
ln (OPTUBERS)	5.179403	1.380525	3.751765	0.0008
R^2	0.874790	Adjusted R^2	0.843487
F-statistic	27.94631	(F-statistic)	0.000000
Durbin–Watson stat	0.942394