A dynamic fragmentation of the misery index in Nigeria

Figures & data

Figure 1. Inflation and GDP growth rates in Nigeria for selected years.

Figure 2. Crude oil price and Naira exchange rate.

Figure 3. Nigeria’s quarterly inflation, unemployment and gross domestic growth rates (2002–2016).

Table 1. Variables used and their descriptions

S/N	Variable	Description
1	μ	This is used to denote unemployment. It is defined as persons between aged 15–64 who during the reference period were presently available for work, keenly looking for work but were not able to secure one
2	μt	This denotes unemployment rate. It is a combination of unemployment rate and underemployment rate. It refers to the proportion of the active population actively seeking for work without getting it for at least 40 h during the reference period divided by the total labour force population
3	μ*	This denotes the potential unemployment rate. It is used to measure the unemployment capacity of an economy over time whether realized or not
4	μn	This denotes the natural rate of unemployment. It is defined as the rate of unemployment to which the economy naturally gravitates in the long run. It is the sum of frictional and structural unemployment rate
5	πt	This denotes headline inflation. It is defined as the measure of the total inflation within an economy. It comprises core and food inflation
6	π*	This denotes the potential headline inflation. It is used to measure the inflation capacity of an economy over time whether realized or not
7	gt	This denotes the actual output growth. It is used to measure the growth of an economy over time
8	g*	This denotes the potential output growth. It is used to measure the growth capacity of an economy over time whether realized or not
9	α	This denotes alpha. It is defined as a measure of the variation in expected inflation associated with a unit change in the variation between the actual and potential rates of unemployment
10	β	This denotes beta. It is defined as a constant which measures the variation between actual and potential unemployment to changes between actual and potential growth
11	Mt	This denotes the misery index. It is defined as the measures of the level of a country’s economic distress

Table 2. Summary of results for unknown variables, parameters and the misery index

Year/Quarter	${\mathit{\mu }}_t^{\ast }$	g*	${\mathit{\pi }}_t^{\ast }$	Mt
Q1-2002	13.17	9.14	13.94	29.84
Q2-2002	13.14	9.34	14.11	24.65
Q3-2002	13.11	9.50	14.25	22.53
Q4-2002	13.08	9.60	14.35	25.09
Q1-2003	13.04	9.66	14.42	20.41
Q2-2003	13.00	9.68	14.46	28.85
Q3-2003	12.96	9.65	14.46	33.34
Q4-2003	12.91	9.59	14.42	38.63
Q1-2004	12.86	9.50	14.32	36.39
Q2-2004	12.82	9.39	14.18	27.67
Q3-2004	12.78	9.25	14.00	22.35
Q4-2004	12.76	9.10	13.79	22.87
Q1-2005	12.76	8.95	13.55	28.44
Q2-2005	12.78	8.79	13.28	30.48
Q3-2005	12.82	8.63	12.99	36.08
Q4-2005	12.90	8.49	12.68	23.31
Q1-2006	13.02	8.36	12.37	24.19
Q2-2006	13.17	8.24	12.07	20.73
Q3-2006	13.37	8.14	11.79	18.60
Q4-2006	13.61	8.07	11.55	21.00
Q1-2007	13.89	8.01	11.35	17.51
Q2-2007	14.22	7.96	11.19	18.92
Q3-2007	14.59	7.94	11.08	16.92
Q4-2007	15.01	7.93	11.01	19.81
Q1-2008	15.46	7.93	10.99	21.45
Q2-2008	15.96	7.94	10.99	26.42
Q3-2008	16.48	7.96	11.02	28.29
Q4-2008	17.03	7.98	11.06	31.35
Q1-2009	17.60	8.01	11.10	32.74
Q2-2009	18.18	8.04	11.14	30.59
Q3-2009	18.76	8.06	11.16	30.58
Q4-2009	19.34	8.07	11.18	34.75
Q1-2010	19.92	8.07	11.17	35.46
Q2-2010	20.49	8.05	11.15	35.21
Q3-2010	21.04	8.02	11.11	35.29
Q4-2010	21.57	7.96	11.04	34.03
Q1-2011	22.09	7.89	10.96	35.59
Q2-2011	22.58	7.79	10.86	33.72
Q3-2011	23.05	7.68	10.76	34.58
Q4-2011	23.49	7.55	10.65	35.34
Q1-2012	23.91	7.39	10.54	39.17
Q2-2012	24.30	7.21	10.43	40.43
Q3-2012	24.66	7.02	10.32	38.89
Q4-2012	25.00	6.79	10.23	39.34
Q1-2013	25.33	6.55	10.16	33.82
Q2-2013	25.66	6.27	10.11	33.10
Q3-2013	25.98	5.97	10.10	32.46
Q4-2013	26.31	5.63	10.13	32.33
Q1-2014	26.66	5.26	10.20	32.53
Q2-2014	27.03	4.86	10.31	33.10
Q3-2014	27.41	4.43	10.48	33.51
Q4-2014	27.83	3.97	10.69	33.53
Q1-2015	28.26	3.48	10.94	34.46
Q2-2015	28.73	2.96	11.24	35.64
Q3-2015	29.21	2.43	11.58	36.45
Q4-2015	29.72	1.88	11.96	38.75
Q1-2016	30.24	1.32	12.35	43.98
Q2-2016	30.77	0.75	12.77	49.12
Q3-2016	31.30	0.18	13.20	51.50
Q4-2016	31.84	−0.39	13.62	53.42

α* = −0.601.

β* = 0.012.

Figure 4. Graph of quarterly misery index for Nigeria (2002Q1–2016Q4).

Figure 5. Histogram and summary statistics of quarterly misery index for Nigeria (2002–2016).

Figure 6. Graph of quarterly misery index for Nigeria against oil prices (2002Q1–2016Q4).