Competitiveness of Pakistani rice in international market and export potential with global world: A panel gravity approach

Figures & data

Figure 1. Production and exports rank of Pakistani rice compared to other countries.

Source: Authors’ calculation based on FAO, 2017

Table 1. Description of variables

Variables	Unit	Type	Expected Sign	Data Source
$REx{p}_{ijt}$	US$ 1000	Time-Variant	–	Food and Agriculture Organization, UN Comtrade
$Y_{it}and{Y}_{jt}$	US$ 1000	Time-Variant	Positive	WDI, World Bank
${\left(DIST\right)}_{ijt}$	Kilometres	Time-Invariant	Negative	CEPII database
${\left(APYD\right)}_{ijt}$	US$ 1000	Time-Variant	Ambiguous	WDI, World Bank
${\left(EXR\right)}_{ijt}$	–	Time-Variant	Positive	WDI, World Bank
$Conti{g}_{ijt}$	(0/1)	Time-Invariant	Positive	CEPII database
$WT{O}_{ijt}$	(0/1)	Time-Invariant	Positive	World Trade Organization, WTO
$T{A}_{ijt}$	(0/1)	Time-Invariant	Positive	ARIC, Asian Development Bank

Source: Authors’ Compilation

Figure 2. Percentage contribution in overall world’s rice exports (in terms of Dollar value).

Source: Authors’ compilation based on UN Comtrade and FAO.

Figure 3. Competitiveness indicators (RCA) of Pakistan compared with major rice exporters.

Source: Authors’ calculation

Figure 4. Competitiveness indicators (RCA#) of Pakistan compared with Major rice exporters.

Source: Authors’ calculation.

Table 2. Results of Pesran’s (2004) CD test

Variables	Pesaran’s CD test	Prob.
${\left(RExp\right)}_{ijt}$	26.13	0.00
${\left(Y\right)}_{it}$	379.7	0.00
${\left(Y\right)}_{jt}$	324.7	0.00
${\left(APYD\right)}_{ijt}$	32.28	0.00
${\left(EXR\right)}_{ijt}$	176.56	0.00

Source: Authors’ compilation from STATA 14.0.

Table 3. Gravity results with PPML and time-fixed effects, (2003–2016)

Explanatory Variables	Model-I	Model-II	Model-III	Model-IV	Model-V	Model-VI
Coefficient	−1.98 (3.25)	13.97 (1.02)	−2.34 (6.03)	13.4 (1.1)	−2.1 (3.2)	−2.34 (5.9)
$Y_{it}$	0.75 (0.2)***	-	0.76 (0.31)**	-	0.79 (0.14)***	0.79 (0.3)***
$Y_{jt}$	0.2 (0.02)***	-	0.16 (0.02)***	-	0.12 (0.02)***	0.12 (0.02)***
${\left(DIST\right)}_{ijt}$	−0.73 (0.14)***	−0.7 (0.13)***	−0.75 (0.14)***	−0.71 (0.13)***	−0.76 (0.13)***	−0.77 (0.14)***
${\left(APYD\right)}_{ijt}$	-	0.24 (0.1)***	-	0.24 (0.1)***	0.16 (0.1)**	0.14 (0.1)*
${\left(EXR\right)}_{ijt}$	−0.03 (0.02)*	−0.04 (0.02)**	−0.03 (0.02)*	−0.05 (0.02)**	−0.1 (0.02)***	−0.1 (0.02)***
$Conti{g}_{ijt}$	0.64 (0.3)**	1.01 (0.3)***	0.69 (0.3)**	1.16 (0.3)***	0.76 (0.29)***	0.8 (0.3)***
$WT{O}_{ijt}$	0.28 (0.15)*	0.51 (0.15)***	0.29 (0.14)**	0.5 (0.15)***	0.33 (0.14)**	0.34 (0.14)**
$T{A}_{ijt}$	−0.3 (0.2)*	0.24 (0.1)*	−0.38 (0.2)**	−0.12 (0.2)	−0.2 (0.17)	−0.3 (0.2)
Fixed Effects	No	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes
Observations	2016	2016	2016	2016	2016	2016
Log-likelihood	−30,047,188	−31,186,534	−29,396,536	−29,649,728	−29,816,582	−29,200,134
R-squared	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.13	0.1	0.11

Source: Author’s calculation based on gravity equation (6), estimated by STATA 14.

***0.01, **0.05, *0.1 level of significance.

Table 4. Rice export potentials of Pakistan

Country	Potential* US$ 1000	Potential^#	Country	Potential* US$ 1000	Potential^#
India	122,234.6	−1.000	Libya	6751.9	−0.810
Iran	45,791.3	−0.742	Tunisia	6751.2	−0.683
Nepal	26,887.4	−1.000	Mali	6724.2	−0.999
Korea Rep.	26,738.4	−0.988	Turkey	6671.1	−0.291
Uzbekistan	26,025.7	−1.000	Botswana	6466.2	−0.994
Tajikistan	25,168.4	−0.990	Equatorial Guinea	6460.5	−0.886
Japan	23,717.0	−0.937	Seychelles	6323.3	−0.774
Viet Nam	21,794.5	−0.984	Zambia	6015.2	−0.977
Kyrgyzstan	19,715.0	−1.000	Eritrea	5949.0	−0.998
Thailand	18,896.1	−0.948	Brazil	5873.7	−0.975
Macao	17,961.7	−1.000	Dominican Republic	5847.2	−0.999
Norway	17,722.4	−0.842	Namibia	5823.5	−0.996
Hong Kong	17,720.5	−0.799	Maldives	5685.7	−0.495
Switzerland	17,131.8	−0.970	Trinidad and Tobago	5192.3	−0.938
Hungary	16,994.1	−0.994	Swaziland	5105.9	−0.993
Armenia	16,991.1	−1.000	Argentina	5010.9	−0.987
Finland	16,750.8	−0.981	Algeria	4857.4	−0.412
Austria	16,498.3	−0.992	Jamaica	4792.6	−0.999
Sweden	16,065.2	−0.674	Panama	4648.8	−1.000
Laos	15,449.3	−1.000	Chile	4420.2	−0.432
Czech Republic	15,288.1	−0.958	Paraguay	4388.8	−1.000
Kazakhstan	14,900.1	−0.573	Cabo Verde	4369.3	−0.962
Denmark	14,868.9	−0.713	Mexico	4332.0	−0.688
Romania	14,374.9	−0.951	New Zealand	4115.4	−0.430
Kuwait	14,145.1	−0.443	El Salvador	4111.6	−1.000
Poland	14,065.9	−0.775	South Africa	4047.2	−0.270
Singapore	13,918.1	−0.722	Sudan	3982.1	−0.379
Bangladesh	13,909.2	−0.656	Fiji	3483.5	−0.986
Luxembourg	13,604.0	−1.000	Netherlands	3167.4	−0.120
Iraq	13,488.4	−0.571	Liberia	2624.6	−0.664
Greece	13,441.9	−0.819	Ghana	2490.8	−0.293
Cyprus	13,420.7	−0.969	Haiti	2117.1	−0.402
Cambodia	12,957.7	−1.000	Angola	1714.9	−0.156
Ireland	12,541.5	−0.879	Italy	1655.6	−0.066
Germany	12,106.1	−0.401	Cameroon	994.6	−0.092
Lebanon	12,099.8	−0.765	Ukraine	746.0	−0.046
Philippines	11,857.2	−0.906	Zimbabwe	71.5	−0.041
Turkmenistan	11,701.1	−0.730	Canada	−131.4	0.004
Croatia	11,653.3	−0.965	Qatar	−1274.9	0.001
Iceland	11,584.4	−1.000	Bahrain	−1331.2	0.011
Slovenia	11,332.6	−0.999	Togo	−1535.6	0.018
Russia	11,307.1	−0.288	Mauritius	−1752.2	0.107
Uganda	11,154.0	−0.988	Spain	−2556.6	0.079
Estonia	11,052.6	−0.986	Djibouti	−2691.4	0.134
Bulgaria	10,897.5	−0.954	Sri Lanka	−3074.5	0.006
Latvia	10,579.1	−0.940	Guinea-Bissau	−6226.0	0.340
Egypt	10,445.8	−0.883	Guinea	−7267.8	0.060
Brunei Darussalam	10,131.1	−0.994	Australia	−7398.8	0.252
Jordan	9365.3	−0.730	Gambia	−7765.9	0.472
Albania	9295.1	−0.803	Somalia	−9083.8	0.368
Malta	9180.4	−0.971	Comoros	−10,661.3	0.544
Serbia	9015.7	−0.998	Mauritania	−13,507.0	0.404
Moldova	8889.9	−0.988	Sierra Leone	−15,031.8	0.532
Gabon	8879.4	−0.983	Senegal	−15,165.4	0.534
Georgia	8798.5	−0.504	USA	−18,256.2	0.456
Slovakia	8796.0	−1.000	Indonesia	−20,406.3	0.370
Burundi	8687.0	−1.000	Belgium	−23,162.5	0.423
Syria	8686.2	−0.759	Azerbaijan	−27,924.0	0.551
Portugal	8568.9	−0.697	Benin	−31,685.7	0.670
Nigeria	8528.2	−0.985	Afghanistan	−34,660.5	0.160
Rwanda	8464.4	−1.000	Côte d’Ivoire	−43,148.6	0.741
Colombia	8266.4	−1.000	Madagascar	−45,043.7	0.688
Congo D.R.	8250.0	−0.958	UK	−50,076.7	0.544
Belarus	8211.0	−0.997	Tanzania	−54,965.5	0.717
Ethiopia	8112.0	−1.000	Yemen	−55,332.6	0.738
Malawi	8023.2	−0.985	Malaysia	−56,983.2	0.696
Morocco	7888.8	−0.963	Mozambique	−66,967.9	0.836
Niger	7556.0	−0.982	Oman	−70,863.2	0.574
Venezuela	7233.6	−0.979	Saudi Arabia	−75,071.2	0.564
Lithuania	7167.9	−0.406	China	−124,035.6	0.578
Congo	7039.7	−0.950	UAE	−132,742.6	0.658
France	6899.0	−0.251	Kenya	−204,884.2	0.914

*Positive value indicates export potential, otherwise exhausted potential;

^#Negative value indicates export potential, otherwise exhausted potential.

Source: Authors’ calculation based on Equation (6) and (7).

Figure A. Represents Pakistan’s rice exports and percentage share with total exports, GDP and world rice export.

Source: Authors’ compilation based on data UN COMTRADE and FAO, 2018.

Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels (IZA Discussion Paper No. 1240). Retrieved from http://repec.iza.org/dp1240.pdf

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