An investigation of the contribution of processed and unprocessed agricultural exports to economic growth in South Africa

Figures & data

Table 1. Descriptive statistics

Mean	LGDP 10.04308	LP 8.773115	LGE 8.344252	LUP 8.473050	LWI 9.010218
Median	10.17017	8.952655	8.228043	8.625362	8.888741
Maximum	11.15974	10.56737	9.745781	9.951925	10.78934
Minimum	8.293800	6.776393	6.725034	6.670259	6.593045
Std. Dev.	0.816780	1.132412	0.816076	0.985335	1.302659
Skewness	−0.439304	−0.068713	0.098488	−0.288352	−0.052431
Kurtosis	2.258012	1.761257	2.168333	1.924165	1.613352
Jarque-Bera	1.653124	1.941711	0.913086	1.862511	2.417236
Probability	0.437551	0.378759	0.633470	0.394059	0.298610
Sum	301.2924	263.1934	250.3275	254.1915	270.3065
Sum Sq. Dev.	19.34676	37.18836	19.31340	28.15567	49.21071
Observations	30	30	30	30	30

Source: Primary data computed from Eviews8.

Table 2. Lag length

Lag	LogL	LR	FPE	AIC	SC	HQ
0	−14.81883	NA	2.99e-06	1.468062	1.708031	1.539417
1	78.13996	144.6026	2.02e-08	−3.565923	−2.126104	−3.137790
2	109.1766	36.78413	1.60e-08	−4.013079	−1.373411	−3.228168
3	191.6115	67.16919*	4.30e-10*	−8.267517*	−4.428000*	−7.125827*

Source: Primary data computed from Eviews 8.

* shows the chosen lag length.

Table 3. Cointegration results

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized No. of CE(s)	Eigenvalue	Trace Statistic	0.05 Critical Value	Prob.**
None *	0.760836	71.98201	69.81889	0.0333
At most 1	0.413888	31.92506	47.85613	0.6163
At most 2	0.357701	16.96621	29.79707	0.6426
At most 3	0.129238	4.570574	15.49471	0.8526
At most 4	0.024542	0.695754	3.841466	0.4042
Trace test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
*denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized No. of CE(s)	Eigenvalue	Max-Eigen Statistic	0.05Critical Value	Prob.**
None *	0.760836	40.05695	33.87687	0.0081
At most 1	0.413888	14.95886	27.58434	0.7515
At most 2	0.357701	12.39563	21.13162	0.5091
At most 3	0.129238	3.874819	14.26460	0.8723
At most 4	0.024542	0.695754	3.841466	0.4042
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
*denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values

Source: Primary data computed from Eviews 8.

Table 4. Cointegration graph

Source: Primary data computed from Eviews 8.

Table 5. Long-run results

Variable	VECM	FMOLS
LP	−0.399889	0.3143**
	0.10542	0.1457
	(−3.79345)	(2.1575)
LGE	−0.613350	5.269***
	0.04835	0.5948
	(−12.6857)	(8.8579)
LWI	−0.009587	3.781***
	0.05108	0.5849
	(−0.18768)	(6.4652)
LUP	0.257797	−1.97
	0.09128	1.92
	(2.82433)	-(1.026)

Note: Figure in parentheses are t statistics, in italics are standard errors and * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.

Table 6. Error correction model results

Variable	Coefficient	Standard error	t-statistic
DLGDP	−0.240625	0.08151	−2.95200
LP	−0.148549	0.07146	−2.07885
LUP	−0.006974	0.09778	−0.07132
LWI	0.291318	0.06805	4.28082
LGE	−0.155254	0.08464	−1.83437

Source: Primary data computed from Eviews 8.

Table 7. Variance decomposition

Period	S.E.	LGDP	LGE	LP	LUP	LWI
1	0.065580	100.0000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000
2	0.097077	92.69896	5.980190	0.976634	0.299425	0.044790
3	0.106118	77.99203	5.065709	5.228020	3.785374	7.928872
4	0.130685	53.71251	8.662237	12.97431	6.386545	18.26440
5	0.144706	45.35711	11.44574	15.93657	7.334404	19.92617
6	0.152821	40.91844	14.10467	17.92159	7.396498	19.65880
7	0.166323	35.62415	25.51004	15.65474	6.268707	16.94236
8	0.175101	33.47212	30.63589	14.80118	5.762928	15.32788
9	0.182394	30.95393	32.07545	16.83881	5.369772	14.76203
10	0.191901	27.96332	34.68470	17.90638	4.950451	14.49516

Source: Primary data computed from Eviews 8.

Table 8. Diagnostic tests

Test	Null Hypothesis	Chi-square	Probability
Langrage Multiplier (LM)	No serial correlation	32.59	0.1414
White (CH-sq)	No conditional heteroskedesticity	0.935	0.762
Jarque-Bera (JB)	There is a normal distribution	10.671^2	0.621

Source: Primary data computed from Eviews 8.